[SFDXA] The K7RA Solar Update

[Bill]

    The K7RA Solar Update

01/22/2021

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: We just witnessed 12 consecutive days 
with no sunspots, which many of us found a bit unsettling. Fortunately, 
Solar Cycle 25 activity returned with new sunspot 2796 on January 15. 
Instead of moving from the east across the solar horizon, it emerged in 
the southern hemisphere, just west of center.

Currently we are seeing sunspot regions 2797 and 2798, which emerged in 
the southeast, and looking at images from the STEREO spacecraft, I see 
another bright spot on the horizon.

Average daily sunspot number increased from zero last week, to 14.7 in 
the January 14 – 20 reporting period.

Average daily solar flux rose from 73.8 to 76.1, and geomagnetic 
indicators sank to very quiet levels. Average daily planetary A index 
dropped from 5.9 to 4, and average daily middle latitude A index from 
4.4 to 3.

The outlook for the next month looks good. Predicted daily solar flux 
for the next 30 days is 80 on January 22-28; 75 on January 29 – February 
3; 76 on February 4 – 10; 77 on February 11 – 17, and 76 on February 18-20.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 22 – 26; 8 on January 27 – 
28, 5 on January 29 – 31; 10 on February 1 – 2; 5 on February 3 – 13; 
10, 10, 12, and 10 on February 14 – 17, and 5 on February 18 – 20.

Here’s the geomagnetic activity forecast for January 22 – February 17 
from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

The geomagnetic field will be:

  * quiet on January 22, 28 – 30, February 4, 10
  * quiet to unsettled on January 23, 27, February 5 – 6, 9 – 13, 17
  * quiet to active on January 24 – 26, 31, February 1, 3, 7, 14 – 16
  * unsettled to active February 2, 8
  * no active to disturbed days
  * solar wind will intensify on January (25 – 27, 31,) February (1,) 2
    – 3, (4, 8 – 10, 15 – 16).

Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement. The 
predictability of changes is much lower than previously, as there are 
very ambiguous indications.

Ken, N4SO, in Grand Bay, Alabama reports good results running 1 W into 
an inverted V on 80 meter CW. On January 15 at 0730 UTC, he worked V31MA 
in Belize. He is having fun late nights on 30 meters running FT8 and 
getting worldwide contacts.

Here’s a *video* <https://bit.ly/39SXS75> of the recent propagation talk 
by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, at the Madison DX Club.

Sunspot numbers for January 14 – 20 were 0, 13, 15, 23, 13, 14, and 25, 
with a mean of 14.7. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 73.6, 73.4, 77.7, 
77.2, 75.3, 78.1, and 77.2, with a mean of 76.1. Estimated planetary A 
indices were 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 6, and 6, with a mean of 4. Middle latitude 
A index was 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 6, and 5, with a mean of 3.

For more information concerning radio propagation, *visit* 
<http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals> the ARRL Technical 
Information Service, *read* 
<http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere> “What the Numbers 
Mean…,” and *check out* <http://k9la.us/> K9LA’s Propagation Page.

A propagation bulletin *archive* 
<http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation> is available. For 
customizable propagation charts, visit the *VOACAP Online for Ham Radio* 
<https://www.voacap.com/hf/>website.


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