[SFDXA] ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050
> ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP50
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50  ARLP050
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  December 10, 2021
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP050
> ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> One new sunspot group appeared on December 4, but four days later it
> was gone, and on Thursday, December 9 we saw the second day with no
> sunspots.
> 
> Average daily sunspot number declined from 46.1 to 24.6. Average
> daily solar flux went from 90.9 to 82.6.
> 
> Predicted solar flux over the next month does not seem promising.
> The December 9 forecast shows 77 on December 10, 80 on December
> 11-14, 82 on December 15, 84 on December 16-17, 85 on December 18,
> 87 on December 19-22, 86 on December 23-27, 84 on December 28, 82 on
> December 29 through January 2, 80 on January 3-5, 82 on January 6-8,
> 80 on January 9-10, 82 on January 11, 85 on January 12-14 and 87 on
> January 15-18.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, 10 and 8 on December 10-13, 8
> on December 13-14, 5 on December 14-15, then 10, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on
> December 16-20, 5 on December 21-26, then 15, 18 and 12 on December
> 27-29, 8 on December 30 through January 3, 5 on January 4-5, then
> 10, 8, 5, 12 and 10 on January 6-10, 5 on January 11-12, then 15,
> 12, 10 and 8 on January 13-16, and 5 on January 17-22.
> 
> From OK1HH:
> 
> "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
> Ionosphere, December 9, 2021.
> 
> "(Created as a continuation of Earth's magnetic field activity
> predictions, published since 1978.)
> 
> "The only sunspot group on solar disk No. 2904, in which we observed
> three spots (=> R = 13) on December 7, was calm and decayed to
> plage. Thus, R = 0 applies since December 8, so we register a
> minimum within the quasi-periodic twenty-seven-day fluctuation. At
> the same time, the solar wind has weakened, the geomagnetic field
> has calmed down and consequently result are the lowest values of
> f0F2. However, the decreasing length of sunshine in the Earth's
> northern hemisphere also contributes to it.
> 
> "In the remaining weeks until the end of the year, we can expect a
> gradual rise in solar activity to the level of the end of November,
> an irregular alternation of the Earth's magnetic field between quiet
> and unsettled, and a gradual rise in daily f0F2 values just slightly
> above average.
> 
> "F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH 
> Email: ok1hh(at)crk.cz, ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
> Pmail: OK1HH(at)OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU"
> 
> This weekend is the annual ARRL 10-Meter Contest! Solar flux should
> be rising a modest amount during the event. Debris from asteroid
> Phaethon could possibly enhance propagation on 10 meters during the
> Geminids meteor shower, peaking on December 13. See 
> http://www.ARRL.org/10-meter for contest details.
> 
> N0JK reported on Wednesday from Kansas, "The Geminids Meteor shower
> is predicted to peak December 13-14. Already meteor rates are
> picking up.
> 
> "I was able to work NJ0W/R in grid DN82 on 50 MHz meteor scatter
> using the MSK144 mode on December 7, at 0330 UTC. Dave, NJ0W made
> other meteor scatter contacts as well. DN82 is considered a rare
> grid for the FFMA (Fred Fish Memorial Award) on 6 Meters."
> 
> The FFMA will be awarded to anyone working all North America grid
> squares on 6 meters. So far Fred Fish is the only ham who has done
> this.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> please email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net .
> 
> For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
> Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
> an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 2 through 8, 2021 were 45, 29, 35, 36,
> 14, 13, and 0, with a mean of 24.6. 10.7 cm flux was 86.6, 85.3,
> 88.1, 82.7, 80, 78.9, and 76.9, with a mean of 82.6. Estimated
> planetary A indices were 10, 8, 9, 9, 7, 5, and 5, with a mean of
> 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 7, 6, 6, 3, and 4, with a
> mean of 5.3.
> NNNN
> /EX