[SFDXA] ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Oct 9 21:24:08 EDT 2020

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041
> ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP41
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41  ARLP041
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  October 9, 2020
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP041
> ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Geomagnetic activity quieted down over this past reporting week,
> October 1 to 7. Compared to the previous seven days, average daily
> mid-latitude A index declined from 15.6 to 6, and average planetary
> A index slipped from 22 to 7.1.
> 
> There were no sunspots this week and only one in the previous seven
> days. Average daily solar flux went from 73.4 to 71.8.
> 
> But late Thursday (October 8) two new cycle 25 sunspots appeared.
> They are both in the southern hemisphere, and as of this writing
> have yet to be assigned numbers. Check here for early images:
> https://bit.ly/2Fe1yoJ
> 
> Later tonight (Friday) you can check Spaceweather.com to see the
> official sunspot number. You can check here Friday night to see the
> daily sunspot numbers and daily total sunspot area over the last
> month:
> 
> ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt
> 
> I just hope this activity isn't like recent spots, which made only
> brief, faint appearances.
> 
> Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 72 on October 9 to 14,
> 70 on October 15 to 18, 72 on October 19 to 31, 70 on November 1 to
> 14, and 72 on November 15 to 22.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 9 to 19, then 10, 18, 20
> and 24 on October 20 to 23, then 16, 38 and 38 on October 24 to 26,
> then 26, 15 and 10 on October 27 to 29, then 5 on October 30 to
> November 6, 10 on November 7, and 5 on November 8 to 15, then 10,
> 18, 20 and 24 on November 16 to 19, and 16 on November 20 and 21,
> then 38 on November 22.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 09 to November
> 04, 2020 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be 
> Quiet on: October 16, 18, November 2 
> Quiet to unsettled on: October 9 and 10, 12 to 14, 17, 31, November
> 3 and 4 
> Quiet to active on: October 15, 19 and 20, 28 and 29, (30,) 
> November 1
> Unsettled to active: October 11, 21 to 24, 27 
> Active to disturbed: October 25 and 26 
> 
> Solar wind will intensify on: October 13, (14 and 15, 20 and 21,)
> 22, (23 and 24,) 25 to 29, (30,) November 2 to 4.
> 
> Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."
> 
> Word from NASA about a new look at sunspots:
> 
> https://go.nasa.gov/3dbJM1T
> 
> Leif Svalgaard predicts a slightly better cycle 25:
> 
> https://bit.ly/3d9XvGF
> 
> Has the pandemic affected amateur radio activity? Yes, and in a good
> way:
> 
> https://cqwpx.com/stats.htm
> 
> All that isolation seems to allow more time on the air, if HF
> contest activity is any indicator.
> 
> From Jon, N0JK in Kansas:
> 
> "Some weak sporadic-E from Kansas to Florida October 6 around 1900Z.
> 
> But stations further east had some outstanding propagation.
> 
> Stations in Ecuador worked north to the Gulf Coast, then New England
> on 6 Meters.
> 
> Propagation mode?
> 
> F2 can occur in early October between North America and South
> America. But solar flux only 71 and no major geomagnetic activity.
> Multi-hop Sporadic-E may have been the mode. Some sporadic-E was
> spotted from New England to Florida, and Florida to Mexico. Es are
> rare in October, too.  An unusual opening.
> 
> HC2FG    20/10/06 2104Z  50313.0 still in FN44 Maine  K1TOL     
> HC3AP    20/10/06 2103Z  50314.4 FT8                  W4AS       
> HC3AP    20/10/06 2100Z  50313.0 CQ                   XE1MEX-
> HC1BI    20/10/06 2055Z  50313.0 73                   KW4BY     
> HC1BI    20/10/06 2051Z  50314.2 FT8                  KD5M       
> HC1BI    20/10/06 2046Z  50313.0 FT8 Maine            K1TOL     
> HC2FG    20/10/06 2046Z  50313.0 73                   KW4BY     
> HC1BI    20/10/06 2045Z  50314.2 FT8                  W4AS       
> HC2FG    20/10/06 2037Z  50313.0 FT8 Maine            K1TOL     
> HC2FG    20/10/06 2035Z  50313.0                      WB2TQE     
> HC2FG    20/10/06 2033Z  50314.7 FT8                  KD5M"
> 
> Jeff Hartley, N8II writes from the state of West Virginia: 
> 
> "I just finished the CA QSO Party. Saturday 15M was very marginal; I
> made about 20 QSOs. Today, 15M condx were excellent to all of CA
> from 1640 to 1850Z enabling me to work about 110 total 15M Qs. 80
> and 40M were excellent to CA with the 40M peak about 30 to 60
> minutes before their sunset Saturday evening. Some signals on 80
> were quite loud and the CA guys were hearing my 200W very well.
> Also, signals were still good to CA almost 2 hours after my sunrise
> today on 40M. 20M was very poor at 2200-2300Z Saturday, but
> improved enough for me to run 20M SSB stations 2300-2340Z. I noticed
> some possible sporadic E to central TN and KY in the afternoon on
> 20M (also some unexpected IL stations late morning)."
> 
> Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW explains the cause of recent geomagnetic
> activity:
> 
> https://bit.ly/3iGTtXl
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see
> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
> Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
> explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for October 1 through 7, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
> and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 72.8, 72.2, 71.8, 71.2,
> 72.3, 71.7, and 70.7, with a mean of 71.8. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 11, 9, 6, 4, 8, 7, and 5, with a mean of 7.1. Middle
> latitude A index was 11, 6, 5, 3, 7, 6, and 4, with a mean of 6.
> NNNN
> /EX