[SFDXA] THE STORM HAS FIZZLED...

Fri Dec 11 05:59:09 EST 2020

*THE STORM HAS FIZZLED: *As predicted, a CME (pictured below) hit 
Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of Dec. 10th (1:30 UT), 
but the impact did not cause a geomagnetic storm. Mid-latitude *auroras 
are not likely tonight*.

<https://www.spaceweather.com/images2020/08dec20/cme_c3_anim.gif>

Why didn't the CME cause a storm? Every CME brings with it some magnetic 
field from the sun. If that magnetic field points *south*, it opens 
cracks in Earth's magnetic field 
<https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2003/03dec_magneticcracks>, 
allowing solar wind to flow inside and fuel auroras. On the other hand, 
if the CME's magnetic field points *north*, it seals cracks in Earth's 
magnetic field, blocking the solar wind and quenching storms.

This CME brought a storm-killing north magnetic field. So, even though 
the velocity of the solar wind in the CME's wake flirted with a high 
value of 600 km/s, it was ineffective in causing geomagnetic storms and 
auroras.

Maybe next time. Solar activity is picking up with the onset of new 
Solar Cycle 25 
<https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/09/17/solar-cycle-25-has-begun/>. 
This is just the first of many CMEs likely to head our way in the months 
ahead. *Aurora alerts:* SMS Text <https://spaceweatheralerts.com/>.

*Solar wind*
speed: *459.5 *km/sec
density: *7.6 *protons/cm^3
more data: ACE 
<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-swepam-24-hour.gif>, 
DSCOVR <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind>
Updated: Today at 0340 UT

*X-ray Solar Flares*
6-hr max: *B5 *0107 UT Dec11
24-hr: *B5 *0107 UT Dec11
explanation <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html> | more 
data <https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux-dynamic-plot>
Updated: Today at: 0345 UT

Daily Sun: 10 Dec 
20<https://www.spaceweather.com/images2020/10dec20/hmi1898.gif>

Sunspot AR2790 is quiet and seems to pose no further threat for strong 
flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

*Sunspot number: 11 *
What is the sunspot number?
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotnumber.html>Updated 10 Dec 2020

*Spotless Days
*Current Stretch: 0 days
2020 total: 206 days (60%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 10 Dec 2020

*Thermosphere Climate Index*
today: 6.14x10^10 WCold
Max: 49.4x10^10 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x10^10 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation 
<https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/09/27/the-chill-of-solar-minimum/> | 
*more data:* gfx 
<https://www.spaceweather.com/images2020/10dec20/TCI_Daily_NO_Power_Percentiles.png>, 
txt <https://www.spaceweather.com/images2020/10dec20/tci_info.txt>
Updated 10 Dec 2020

*The Radio Sun*
10.7 cm flux: *82 *sfu
explanation <https://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/2/5> | more data 
<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/solar-cycle-10-cm-radio-flux.gif>
Updated 10 Dec 2020

Cosmic Rays Solar minimum is underway. The sun's magnetic field is weak, 
allowing extra cosmic rays into the solar system. Neutron counts from 
the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that 
cosmic rays reaching Earth in 2020 are near a Space Age peak.
*
Oulu Neutron Counts*
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +9.0% High
48-hr change: +0.3%
Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation 
<https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/10/03/cosmic-rays-are-nearing-a-space-age-maximum/> |**more 
data <https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/>
Updated 10 Dec 2020 @ 0700 UT

<https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/>

Current Auroral Oval:

<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg>

Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation

*Planetary K-index*
Now: *Kp= 3 *quiet
24-hr max: *Kp= 3 *quiet
explanation <https://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/kp.html> | more data
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index>

*Interplanetary Mag. Field*
B_total : *5.4 *nT
B_z : *-2.0 *nT *south *
more data: ACE 
<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-24-hour.gif>, DSCOVR 
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind>
Updated: Today at 0339 UT

Coronal Holes: 10 Dec 20

<https://www.spaceweather.com/images2020/10dec20/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg>
Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole could reach Earth on Dec. 10. 
Credit: SDO/AIA

Noctilucent Clouds The northern-hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds 
has ended. The southern season begins in November. Between now and then, 
Earth has no noctilucent clouds.

<https://www.spaceweather.com/DAISY_PICS/current_daisy.png>

Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, Polar

Updated at:

SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts 	

Updated at: 2020 Dec 10 2200 UTC

FLARE

0-24 hr

24-48 hr
CLASS M

01 %

01 %
CLASS X

01 %

01 %

Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are 
given for three activity levels: active 
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>, minor storm 
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>, severe storm 
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>

Updated at: 2020 Dec 10 2200 UTC

Mid-latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr
ACTIVE

35 %

20 %
MINOR

15 %

05 %
SEVERE

01 %

01 %

High latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr
ACTIVE

10 %

15 %
MINOR

25 %

30 %
SEVERE

50 %

30 %

https://www.spaceweather.com

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