[SFDXA] ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

Tue Dec 1 17:05:10 EST 2020

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048
> ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP48
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48  ARLP048
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  December 1, 2020
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP048
> ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Over the past week our Sun has been quite active, with rising
> sunspot numbers and solar flux showing strong evidence that Solar
> Cycle 25 is progressing.
> 
> Average daily sunspot number rose from 12 last week to 27.9 in the
> current week, while solar flux rose to a high of 103.7, bringing
> average daily solar flux up from 79.8 to 90.1.
> 
> Average daily planetary A index rose from 3.1 to 9.9, and average
> daily middle latitude A index went from 2.1 to 7.7.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 106, 108 and 105 on November 27-29, 102 on
> November 30 through December 4, then 92, 88 and 85 on December 5-7,
> then 82, 80 and 78 on December 8-10, 75 on December 11-17, then 77,
> 80, 90 and 92 on December 18-21, 94 on December 22-25, 92 on
> December 26 through January 1, 2021, then 88, 85, 82, 80 and 78 on
> January 2-6, and 75 on January 7-10.
> 
> The Planetary A Index forecast shows values of 8 on November 27, 5
> on November 28 through December 17, then 12, 24 and 18 on December
> 18-20, 10, 12 and 10 on December 21-23, 5 on December 24-29, 8 on
> December 30-31, and 5 on January 1-10, 2021.
> 
> Solar flux is measured thrice daily in Penticton, British Columbia,
> and values have risen steadily in the past few days. Starting at
> 2200 UTC on November 24, they were 99.6, 102.8, 103.7, 104, 105.7,
> 105.8 and 110.2.
> 
> See them here:
> https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
> 
> The official daily flux value is taken at noon, local time in
> Penticton, which is 2000 UTC.
> 
> VA7JW article about the observatory:
> 
> http://archive.nsarc.ca/hf/drao_solar.pdf
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 27 until
> December 22, 2020 from OK1HH:
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be,
> quiet on: December 7, 12-14, (15-16)
> quiet to unsettled on: November 29-30, December 1-2, 6, 8, 11
> quiet to active on: November 27-28, December 3-5, 9-10, 17, 22
> unsettled to active: December 18, 21
> active to disturbed: December 19-20
> 
> "Solar wind will intensify on: November (30,) December (2,) 3-5,
> (9,) 17-19.
> 
> "Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. The
> predictability of changes remains lower because there are still few
> unambiguous indications. In addition, the situation is relatively
> rapidly changing. Which, by the way, is an indicator of further
> growth in activity."
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK reported on November 25:
> 
> "Sporadic-E is picking up on 6 Meters as Thanksgiving approached.
> 
> "Had K0GU (DN70) into northeast KS via Es on 50.313 MHz ~ 2344z with
> '-12 dB' signals on FT8 November 24.
> 
> "Noted K0GU made a number of contacts into the St. Louis, MO area
> and W9. Also saw AC4TO (EM70) in Florida working Brazil ~ 0050z
> November 25. May have been a sporadic-E link to TEP or possibly
> direct TEP.
> 
> "A typical spot: PY1MHZ  20/11/25 0057Z  50313.0 Into EM70 AC4TO"
> 
> KA3JAW reported November 25:
> 
> "Sporadic-E, both double and triple-hop rolled-up on 10 meters for
> six hours starting around 1253 till 1921 UTC.
> 
> "Background noise level was 4 dBm on the signal strength meter.
> 
> "The following countries, states heard: Trinidad, West Indies, AZ,
> Canada, CO, KS, NM, OK, TX, WA
> 
> "Texas was the most heard state.
> 
> "What was different with this event was the lack of southeastern
> states."
> 
> AA8WH reported:
> 
> "This is Bill Herzberg, AA8WH, of Dearborn Heights, Michigan. Just
> wanted to let you and everybody else know, 10 METERS IS ALIVE AND
> WELL.
> 
> "Starting after noon on November 25, I decided to check out the 6m
> and 10m FT8 frequencies. Wasn't much happening on 6m, only heard a
> few calls, so I moved down to 10m. Boy what a difference. 10m FT8
> signals were coming in from all over the place.
> 
> "I decided to go down to the sideband portion and see what was going
> on. Heard lots of ssb stations around 28.4. Heard some more above
> that.
> 
> "Went down to 28.3, and heard several really strong stations.
> 
> "Went down to the beacon subband, heard beacon stations, lots of
> 'em, some doubling up on frequencies.
> 
> "So I went down to 12m. Heard several SSB stations, FT8 was hopping.
> 15m was wide open, as was 17m. 20m was also going strong.
> 
> "I think that it was a combination of better conditions and a lot of
> folks home for the holidays.
> 
> "Nice to hear the bands open. It's a taste of what's coming, when it
> will be possible to work the world with a few watts. Those times are
> coming, and it won't be soon enough for me."
> 
> Thanks to Paul NO0T for this recording of Dr. Scott McIntosh (see
> https://bit.ly/3lafPle for his CV) and his presentation to the
> "Front Range 6 Meter Group" concerning Solar Cycle 25:
> 
> https://youtu.be/lRNJPkQPo_g
> 
> Don't miss this! Some of what he reports is quite startling, and
> optimistic.
> 
> Coming up in two weeks is the ARRL 10 Meter contest, which will
> especially benefit from higher solar activity. See
> http://www.arrl.org/10-meter for details.
> 
> See this article on helioseismology and sunspot prediction:
> 
> https://bit.ly/39gIAdD
> 
> Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, is very excited about the new solar
> activity:
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6L-FutZmw8
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see
> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
> Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
> explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .
> 
> Sunspot numbers for November 19 through 25, 2020 were 11, 11, 23,
> 35, 38, 37, and 40, with a mean of 27.9. 10.7 cm flux was 76.7,
> 81.7, 85, 87.7, 95.5, 100.4, and 103.7, with a mean of 90.1.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 8, 12, 27, 8, 4, and 7, with a
> mean of 9.9. Middle latitude A index was 2, 9, 9, 19, 7, 4, and 4,
> with a mean of 7.7.
> NNNN
> /EX