[SFDXA] ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Aug 28 18:01:40 EDT 2020

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP035
> ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP35
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 35  ARLP035
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  August 28, 2020
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP035
> ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Our closest star seems to have quieted again.  We have now
> experienced seven consecutive days with no sunspots at all.
> 
> Average daily sunspot number dropped from 5.4 to 1.9 this week, and
> average daily solar flux declined from 71 to 70.4.  Geomagnetic
> indicators increased marginally, with average daily planetary A
> index going from 4.4 to 5.1, and average middle latitude A index
> from 5 to 6.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 70 on August 28 to September 3, 71 on
> September 4, 72 on September 5 to 9, 71 on September 10 to 16, 70 on
> September 17 to 27, 71 on September 28 to 30, 72 on October 1 to 6,
> and 71 on October 7 to 11.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 8, 10, 12 and 8 on August 28 to 31, 5
> on September 1 to 17, 8 on September 18 and 19, then 10, 15 and 10
> on September 20 to 22, then 5, 10, 12 and 18 on September 23 to 26,
> 15 on September 27 and 28, 12 on September 29, and 5 on September 30
> to October 11.
> 
> OK1HH is on his annual hiatus, so no geomagnetic prediction from him
> this week.  Instead, we present a much more limited forecast from
> Tomas Bayer of the Budkov Observatory.
> 
> "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 28 to September
> 03, 2020
> 
> Quiet:  August 27, September 1 to 3
> Unsettled:  August 27 to 31, September 1 and 2
> Active:  Possibly on August 30 and 31
> Minor storm:  0
> xhMajor storm:  0
> Severe storm:  0
> 
> Geomagnetic activity summary:  
> Friday, August 28, we expect at most quiet conditions.  On the same
> day, in the evening, more unsettled conditions are possible.
> 
> The most unsettled conditions are expected during the coming
> weekend, August 29 and 30.  The unsettled stage can also peak by any
> isolated active event.
> 
> From Monday, August 31, we expect waning of the unsettled conditions
> to the quiet to unsettled level.  The first three days of September,
> we expect quiet conditions to return."
> 
> Now, since sunspots are fading (I assure you this is temporary) we
> have received another of the occasional reports from Cycle 19.
> 
> "I love reading your weekly prop report hoping to see the beginning
> in the new cycle.  So far, not much news, so I reminisce about that
> fantastic cycle 19.  Not many active hams have lived through the
> cycle, but I did.  I would love for everyone to experience another
> cycle 19 in the next 10 years.
> 
> I received my novice license in 1954 at the age of 16.  My station
> was an S38 and a homemade 6V6 xmtr on 80 meters, crystal controlled.
> Later I was given a 40 meter crystal and I enjoyed more distant
> QSOs.  One night I was called by a very strange call and I learned
> that I was talking to CM7JA in Camaguey, Cuba.  My first DX and I
> was hooked.  I built a mighty Heathkit AT1 and moved to 15 meters in
> my quest for DX.  Hawaii was my 1st DX on 15.  Novices were allowed
> on 80, 40, and 15 at that time, crystal controlled only.
> 
> I received my General class license in 1955, built a Heathkit VFO.
> Now I was set for DX.  In late 1954 the SSN was bouncing around 5,
> good for 80 and 40.  In late 1955 the SSN was bouncing around 70 and
> 20, 15, and 10  were alive with signals from everywhere.  I was in
> hog heaven!  I upgraded to an NC-98 receiver and a Globe scout
> transmitter and in late 1956 the SSN was about 160, I thought DX
> could not be better than this.
> 
> But it did!  I built a homemade 10 meter beam made from bamboo poles
> wrapped in aluminum foil and could contact anyone I could hear.  By
> the end of 1957 the SSN was 200 with excursions to 250.  All the
> high bands (20, 15, and 10) were open all night long!  Ten watts and
> a wet string could work the world.  It was fantastic!  Most of my
> operation was on CW with an occasional QSO on AM if I heard a new
> one.
> 
> By 1958 school and girls competed with radio for my attention, but I
> always found some time to operate.  SSN was still up around 160.
> Soon it was graduation, job, marriage, and kids but I always found
> time to flip the new and improved rig on.  I was also working on
> getting those elusive QSL cards to improve my DXCC standing.
> 
> Now at 82 yo I am still working DX but mostly on FT8 and I am
> looking forward to an exciting cycle 25.  I hope y'all can
> experience what I did."
> 
> Thanks, Bill for the report from the middle of the 20th century!
> Nice to hear of a Yagi built from bamboo poles wrapped in aluminum
> foil.
> 
> I hope we see more sunspots soon, and one thing we have to look
> forward to currently is improved propagation due to seasonal
> effects.  We are just a few weeks away from the autumnal equinox.
> 
> A new video from WX6SWW, Dr. Tamitha Skov, the Space Weather Woman:
> 
> https://youtu.be/CnNpWD5UzVs
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see
> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
> Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an
> explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for August 20 to 26, 2020 were 13, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
> and 0, with a mean of 1.9.  10.7 cm flux was 69.9, 70.9, 70, 70.6,
> 70.3, 70.6, and 70.4, with a mean of 70.4.  Estimated planetary A
> indices were 3, 4, 8, 7, 3, 4, and 7, with a mean of 5.1.  Middle
> latitude A index was 4, 5, 13, 7, 3, 3, and 7, with a mean of 6.
> NNNN
> /EX