[SFDXA] ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Sep 20 21:03:01 EDT 2019

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038
> ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP38
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38  ARLP038
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  September 20, 2019
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP038
> ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> No sunspots this week, and as of Wednesday we've seen 15 spotless
> days in a row. This is the solar minimum. The current Solar Cycle 24
> is expected to end by the end of this calendar year.
> 
> Average daily solar flux declined from 69.4 to 68.1. Average daily
> planetary A index declined slightly from 8.9 to 8.3, but average
> daily mid-latitude A index rose from 7.7 to 8.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 68 on September 20-26, 69 on September 27
> through October 6, 70 on October 7, 68 on October 8-19, 69 on
> October 20 through November 2 and 70 on October 3.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 20-21, 8 on September
> 22-23, 5 on September 24-25, then 10, 35, 45, 20 and 10 on September
> 26-30, then 8, 10 and 8 on October 1-3, then 5, 5 and 12 on October
> 4-6, 5 on October 7-9, then 8, 5 and 8 on October 10-12, then 5, 8
> and 10 on October 13-15, 5 on October 16-19, then 8, 5 and 5 on
> October 20-22, then 8, 25, 30, and 18 on October 23-26, then 8, 5
> and 8 on October 27-29, 5 on October 30 through November 1, 12 on
> November 2 and 5 on November 3.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 20 to
> October 14, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be
> Quiet on: September 20 (-21,) October 7-8.
> Quiet to unsettled on: September 22, (24,) October 4-6, 9-10.
> Quiet to active on: September 23, 25, 30, October 1-3, 11.
> Unsettled to active on: September (26), October (12-14).
> Active to disturbed: September (27-29).
> 
> "Solar wind will intensify on: September (24-27,) 28-30.  October 1
> (-4, 7-9,) 11 (-14)
> 
> "- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
> - The predictability of changes remains lower."
> 
> Another explanation for heliophysics. Thanks to W4NI:
> 
> https://bit.ly/2kVU7s5
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK in Kansas sent this:
> 
> "6 Meter Es made an appearance in the ARRL September VHF Contest
> Saturday evening (September 15 UTC). Starting around 0030z, stations
> in Arizona, California, Nevada and Utah appeared and worked stations
> in the Midwest states. I even saw a few double hop sporadic-E
> contacts between Michigan to Nevada, and California to Alabama. I
> made about a dozen FT8 6 meter contacts running 10 watts and a 2
> element Yagi in the single operator portable category in the
> opening. My best DX was NA6L (DM03) in southern California.
> 
> "Sporadic-E propagation is rare in September, and it was a special
> treat to have an Es opening during the VHF Contest."
> 
> Another 6 meter report, from KD7WPJ in Mountain House, California,
> which is between Tracy and Livermore:
> 
> "During ARRL September VHF Contest I made 50 MHz FT8 contact with
> VE7DAY on September 16 at 0242 UTC. I used only 10 w with a simple
> dipole antenna.
> 
> "The distance is approximately 844 miles.
> 
> "It's kind of late for Es season, and the propagation mechanism is
> undetermined."
> 
> Ken, N4SO in Alabama sent this regarding signals copied on September
> 13:
> 
> http://www.astrosurf.com/luxorion/qsl-propa5.htm
> 
> "This web site on Grey line propagation explains why on many days on
> 18.100 MHZ, FT8 mode, Japan, Australia or Fiji are decoded.  This
> example is starting at 2236 UTC and lasts for an hour or more.  This
> shows Japan, JQ1TIV easily worked at 2330 UTC.  (Power levels about
> 15 watts to a Half Square antenna.)
> 
> "Late afternoon hours at around 5 PM/2200 UTC start time, usually 2
> hours before local Sunset.
> 
> "223630 -17  0.2  938  CQ VK2IZ QG60         Australia
> 223600  -7  0.1  259  CQ 3D2AG RH91         Fiji
> 233000 -11  0.1 2439  N4SO JQ1TIV RR73   Japan
> 233015  Tx      2432  JQ1TIV N4SO 73
> 233415   8  0.1  845  HK0RMR EK92     San Andres  Providencia"
> 
> KC9WIR cc'd a message he sent to VK3CRG on September 14:
> 
> "At 0810 UTC it was 3:10 AM in Chicago (CDT).
> 
> "I was sleeping but my radio was on the WSPR frequency on 40 meters,
> my PC was decoding WSPR signals. This morning I looked what I
> harvested during the night and there was your signal clocked at 0812
> UTC. Nice, given that you only used 5 watts! You were -20 dB in
> Chicago.
> 
> "Conditions are poor, maximum distance of most other logged stations
> were between 400 and 2000 miles during nighttime. It's puzzling how
> your QRP signal made it to here."
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for September 12 through 18, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0,
> 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 69.4, 68.3, 68.6,
> 67.7, 68.7, 67.5, and 66.3, with a mean of 68.1. Estimated planetary
> A indices were 7, 8, 6, 8, 11, 9, and 9, with a mean of 8.3. Middle
> latitude A index was 7, 8, 7, 8, 10, 8, and 8, with a mean of 8.
> NNNN
> /EX