[SFDXA] ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

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> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP001
> ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP01
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1  ARLP001
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  January 4, 2019
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP001
> ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Sunspots returned with the New Year, with sunspot numbers of 13, 16
> and 16 on January 1-3. The new region was AR2732, and the area of
> the spot tripled each day, beginning at 10 millionths of the visible
> solar disc, then tripling to 30 on Tuesday, and 90 on Wednesday.
> This made the average daily sunspot number for the reporting week
> (December 27 to January 2) 4.1, compared to 0 for the previous seven
> days.
> 
> Average daily solar flux rose slightly from 70 to 70.4.
> 
> Average daily planetary A index rose from 4.9 to 9.3, and average
> mid-latitude A index from 4 to 7.6.
> 
> Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 72 on January 4-5, 70
> on January 6-11, 71 on January 12-19, 69 on January 20 through
> February 2, 71 on February 3-15, and 69 on February 16-17.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 15, 24, 15 and 8 on January 4-7, 5 on
> January 8-9, 10 on January 10, 5 on January 11-15, 12 on January 16,
> 5 on January 17-23, then 20, 12, 12 and 10 on January 24-27, 5 on
> January 28-30, 12 on January 31, then 15, 15 and 8 on February 1-3,
> 5 on February 4-11, 12 on February 12, and 5 on February 13-17.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 4-30, 2019 from
> F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interested Group
> compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecast since 1978.
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be:
> Quiet on January 10-12, 22-23, 29-30
> Quiet to unsettled on January 13, 20, 27-28
> Quiet to active on January 9, 14, 18-19
> Unsettled to active on January 4-8, 15, 17, 21, 25-26
> Active to disturbed on January 16-17, 24
> 
> "Solar wind will intensify on January 3-7, (8, 13-14,) 15-19,
> (20-24,) 25-29
> 
> "Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
> 
> "This forecast was compiled on January 3. The next one will be
> compiled on January 31."
> 
> Jon, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas wrote on January 3:
> 
> "After a relatively lackluster December for sporadic-E, conditions
> improved at the end of December on to the first few days of the New
> Year.
> 
> "I had 6 meter Es December 28 to Canada, and the 29th to the
> southeast states. Logged several stations running just 10 watts on
> SSB.
> 
> "But the real DX took place on January 2, 2019. 6 meters opened for
> sporadic-E around 1700z across North America and stayed open late
> into the evening. Around 2330z, Es links to afternoon
> trans-equatorial propagation across the geomagnetic equator set up
> an opening between North America and Australia.
> 
> "VK3OT, VK3DUT, VK4MA and others appeared suddenly on the JT65 and
> FT8 modes on 50 MHz VK4MA worked east to Illinois on FT8. Larry,
> N0LL (EM09) decoded VK3OT and VK3DUT on JT65. He worked NH6Y on FT8.
> I copied one decode on NH6Y on FT8. The Hawaiian stations made
> contacts in Texas, Mississippi and the Rocky Mountain states.
> 
> "The 'Winter Surprise' North America to VK/ZL openings have taken
> place in past years, one of the best was late December 2015. But to
> occur with a solar flux of only 70 is remarkable.  Carl
> Luetzelschwab, K9LA discussed the mechanism of these openings in a
> column he wrote for the World Radio magazine."
> 
> Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW of Easton, Pennsylvania regularly monitors the
> FM broadcast band for interesting openings:
> 
> "On Friday, December 28, 2018 at 5:49 pm EST (2249 UTC) I was
> monitoring the FM broadcast band on 88.3 MHz and started to hear
> Spanish music, then when the music ended, a male announcer. The
> signal which was fairly weak for roughly thirty seconds vaporized,
> being taken over with a mix from WRAU, Ocean City, MD (50 kW), WPPB,
> Southampton, NY (25 kW). The unidentified station's announcer
> sounded Cuban, which would be near 1274 miles to the south.
> 
> "While watching the DXMAPS website, spots were starting to come in
> on 6 meter SSB via Es from MA to AL, 1154 mile path at 2349 UTC.
> 
> "On December 29, 0005 UTC 6 meter CW Beacon from Maine to Manitoba,
> Canada, 1315 mile path.
> 
> "By 0018 UTC, the MUF climbed up to 72 MHz above FN04 (Barrie,
> Ontario, Canada).
> 
> "Then the unexpected happened. A report of 6M FT8 from Massachusetts
> to New Mexico, 2133 mile path, double-hop Es event at 0032 UTC.
> 
> "At 0037 UTC MUF shot up to 95 MHz above EN92 (London, Ontario,
> Canada).
> 
> "A report of brief Es in the FM broadcast band from near
> Williamsport, PA (FN11) to various south Miami, Florida stations
> (EL95) up to 1118 miles away at 0055 UTC.
> 
> "Forty-five minutes later, analog television channel 6 with a plus
> offset was observed, likely from Cuba.
> 
> "Now the western panhandle of Florida to the lower Hudson Bay-James
> Bay, Canada with the MUF stabilizing at 95 MHz on a 1572 mile path
> at 0100 UTC with FT8 mode.
> 
> "By this time at 0115 UTC I expected the MUF to begin crashing down
> into the HF bands. Nope, the MUF rose 4 MHz higher to 99.
> 
> "Yikes, it is 8:15 pm EST (0115 UTC) and the Es storm continues! At
> 0133 UTC MUF remains at 99 MHz.
> 
> "By 0158 UTC, finally a report of a weak analog television channel
> 2, CHBX in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario (EN76) was detected in Akron,
> OH (EN91) via short-hop sporadic-E at 406 miles. The video rendered
> an advertisement for 'Boxing Week' with a boxer dog."
> 
> Jeff, N8II of West Virginia wrote on December 29:
> 
> "The only 'ray of sunshine' Xmas week was some long path into
> Australia on 30 and 40M CW and Japan on 40M SSB and CW this week. It
> had been nearly 2 years since my last JA QSOs on 40M outside of
> contests and I failed to work any in this year's CQWW as well.
> 
> "That was until Friday night the 29th GMT date when there was
> widespread sporadic-E right in time for the Radio Amateurs of Canada
> Winter Contest. I ran all 6 bands within 4 minutes with VE9HF in New
> Brunswick and worked several VE3s on 20M and then many on 40M in the
> 0100Z hour along with many USA stations some at very short distances
> in the 1/2/3/4/5/8/9th call areas on 40 SSB.
> 
> "10 meters was open to W4/5, lots of activity. Saturday morning 20
> was open to EU as usual as well as Eastern Canada, and by 1500Z to
> western Canada as well with lots of Manitoba and Saskatchewan
> activity. On 15 CW, I worked Slovenia, France, and England. Also
> worked on 15 were W5/6/7/0 and QC and ON on backscatter as well as
> SK, AB, and BC."
> 
> Jeff Howington, AD0AK of Fairfax, Iowa sent this on December 29:
> 
> "Regarding Al, W1VTP's inquiry in your 28 December bulletin, the
> Australian Space Weather Services has a web page at
> https://bit.ly/2sbceum that might better address his needs. It
> provides Hourly Area Prediction (HAP) charts containing easy to
> understand graphical MUF (foF5) data for various locations. Al can
> select the Boston map from the pull down list.
> 
> "That map typically shows roughly concentric rings centered on
> Boston that are color coded to indicate the maximum usable frequency
> a Boston base station should use to reach a mobile at various
> distances away. It's not a stretch to mentally re-center the rings
> to Al's station in Manchester to give an idea of where his signal
> will go from that location. Note that these maps are good only for
> one hour and are refreshed on the hour.
> 
> "I've used the HAP map centered on Kansas City with good success
> while running a NVIS net in the Midwest Region. Since nearly all
> nets are fixed in the frequencies they use, these maps can help
> select the best times to run the net, and they can also provide
> information as to which stations can best serve as relays to net
> control assuming you know their locations."
> 
> Check the AD0AK page on QRZ.com for more on Jeff's interests and
> work at Collins.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net .
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 27, through January 2, 2019 were 0, 0,
> 0, 0, 0, 13, and 16, with a mean of 4.1. 10.7 cm flux was 68.5,
> 69.3, 69, 69.4, 69.3, 71.9, and 75.2, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated
> planetary A indices were 5, 24, 11, 10, 7, 6, and 2, with a mean of
> 9.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 19, 9, 7, 7, 5, and 1,
> with a mean of 7.6.
> NNNN
> /EX