[SFDXA] ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051
> ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP51
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51  ARLP051
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  December 20, 2019
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP051
> ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Still no sunspots, and it's been the same for 37 consecutive days.
> 
> Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet, until "a minor stream of
> solar wind" (according to Spaceweather.com) hit us on December 18.
> This drove the planetary A index to 13 from the low single digit
> values earlier in the week.
> 
> Average planetary A index for December 12-18 rose to 4.6, from 3.7
> over the previous 7 days, while mid-latitude A index increased from
> 1.9 to 4.
> 
> Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 70, and we’ve seen
> this same daily 45-day flux forecast since December 2. December 1
> was the last time there was any value in the forecast other than 70
> when they predicted 69 for December 23 through January 4. The
> forecast is updated daily at
> ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ .
> 
> Predicted planetary A index from the same forecast is 8 on December
> 20-21, 5 on December 22 through January 4, 8 on January 5, 5 on
> January 6-8, 8 on January 9-10, 5 on January 11-13, 12 on January
> 14, 10 on January 15-17, 5 on January 18-31, 8 on February 1, and 5
> on January 2.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 20, 2019 til
> January 15, 2020 from OK1HH.
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be
> Quiet on: December 28-31, January 1-4, 8
> Quiet to unsettled on: December 21-27, January 7, 9-13
> Quiet to active on: (December 20, January 5-6)
> Unsettled to active on: (January 14-15)
> There are no disturbed conditions in this forecast.
> 
> "Solar wind will intensify on: January (14,) 15 (-16)
> 
> "- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
> - Everything suggests that we are very close to the minimum of the
> 11-year cycle at present stage of development."
> 
> Naturally because of weak solar activity, the 10 meter contest last
> weekend was rather slow.
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK from Kansas wrote:
> 
> "With a solar flux of 70 and a low K index, not much F-layer
> propagation was expected in the 2019 ARRL 10 M contest.
> 
> "But Sunday afternoon I found a strong 10 Meter opening to Argentina
> and Chile from Kansas.
> 
> "I set up 'fixed mobile' with 5 watts and a 1/4 wave whip on the car
> around 1800z December 15. I didn't expect much, but heard several
> very loud stations from South America on CW. I put CE2ML and LW8DQ
> in the log. Signals were up to 599.
> 
> "I wonder if this was a 'Es - TEP' opening?
> 
> "When I got home, I checked DXMaps. It showed what appeared to be an
> Es cloud over Louisiana.
> 
> "This may have supported 10 Meter propagation on to CE and LU. Es can
> raise the MUF when the signal hits the F-Layer and are often strong.
> 
> "A nice treat for an otherwise slow 10 Meter Contest."
> 
> Here at K7RA using a very limited low elevation random wire antenna,
> I checked 10 meters in the last hour of the contest on Sunday
> looking to hand out a few QSOs. I heard no local stations here in
> the Seattle area on SSB, but did manage to work some CW operators.
> 
> N8II reported to the 3830 at contesting.com forum (excerpts):
> 
> "The F2 opening to the south was much better Saturday. The Geminids
> meteor shower did coincide with the contest this year which saved
> the day especially for the big guns.
> 
> "Friday, Saturday morning and evening, and Sunday morning I was able
> to work meteor scatter on CW in all directions and there was some
> activity from most of the states/provinces within the approximate
> 1500 mile MS range. For example, I worked all W1 except RI and all
> of eastern Canada except NL, PE and NU. I worked 4 NB stations,
> about 1-2 via brief sporadic-E.
> 
> "There was a short sporadic-E opening late Sunday around 2127-2205Z
> to TX, AR, IA but again activity was low. Sunday was a real grinder
> with most stations already worked. The meteor scatter died out
> around 1600Z Sunday. F2 was limited to Brazil and Chile here from
> 2016-2057Z. It was difficult to work PY even when above S5 here; I
> guess many locations in PY have high noise levels."
> 
> New forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:
> 
> https://bit.ly/2MeZrBh
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see
> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
> Service web page at, at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
> explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 12 through 18, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
> 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.5, 68.9, 70.3, 71,
> 70, 70.5, and 70.2, with a mean of 70.2. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 4, 4, 3, 5, 1, 2, and 13, with a mean of 4.6. Middle
> latitude A index was 3, 3, 2, 5, 1, 2, and 12, with a mean of 4.
> NNNN
> /EX