[SFDXA] NOAA/NASA Panel Concurs that Solar Cycle 25 will Peak in July 2025

[Bill]

    NOAA/NASA Panel Concurs that Solar Cycle 25 will Peak in July 2025

12/11/2019
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The NOAA/NASA-co-chaired international Solar Cycle Prediction Panel has 
released its *latest forecast* 
<http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update> for to 
forecast Solar Cycle 25. The panel’s consensus calls for a peak in July 
2025 (±8 months), with a smoothed sunspot number of 115. The panel 
agreed that Cycle 25 will be of average intensity and similar to Cycle 
24. The panel additionally concurred that the solar minimum between 
Cycles 24 and 25 will occur in April 2020 (±6 months). If the solar 
minimum prediction is correct, this would make Solar Cycle 24 the 
seventh longest on record at 11.4 years. In its preliminary forecast 
released last April, the scientists on the panel forecast that Solar 
Cycle 25 would likely be weak, much like the current Cycle 24.

“Solar Cycle 25 may have a slow start, but is anticipated to peak with 
solar maximum occurring between 2023 and 2026, and a sunspot range of 95 
to 130. This is well below the average number of sunspots,” the panel 
said last spring, adding with “high confidence” that Cycle 25 “should 
break the trend of weakening solar activity seen over the past four 
cycles.” The panel said the expectation that Cycle 25 would be 
comparable in size to Cycle 24 suggests that the steady decline in solar 
cycle amplitude seen from Cycle 21 through Cycle 24 has ended and that 
there is no indication of an approaching “Maunder-type” minimum. Cycle 
24 peaked in April 2014 with an average sunspot number of 82.

The Solar Cycle Prediction Panel forecasts the number of sunspots 
expected for solar maximum, along with the timing of the peak and 
minimum solar activity levels for the cycle. It is comprised of 
scientists representing NOAA, NASA, the International Space Environment 
Services, and other US and international scientists.

http://www.arrl.org/news/noaa-nasa-panel-concurs-that-solar-cycle-25-will-peak-in-july-2025