[SFDXA] ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Aug 16 16:37:21 EDT 2019

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033
> ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP33
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33  ARLP033
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  August 16, 2019
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP033
> ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> No sunspots were visible over the recent reporting week, Thursday
> through Wednesday, August 8 through 14.
> 
> According to Spaceweather.com, 67% of the days so far in 2019 have
> been spotless, and for all of 2018 it was 61%. In the previous solar
> minimum in 2008 and 2009 the spotless days ran 73% and 71%,
> respectively.
> 
> Solar flux has been minimal and unremarkable, with average daily
> solar flux changing only to 67.4 from 67.2 last week.
> 
> Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is likewise unremarkable,
> at 67 from August 15 til September 29.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 16, 5 on August 17, 6 on
> August 18, 8 on August 19 and 20, 5 on August 21 to 25, 8 on August
> 26 to 28, 5 on August 29 to 31, then 38 and 14 on September 1 and 2,
> 5 on September 3 to 5, 8 on September 6 to 8, 5 on September 9 to
> 11, 8 on September 12, 5 on September 13 to 21, 8 on September 22 to
> 24, 5 on September 25 to 27, and in a recurrence of geomagnetic
> activity reported in last week's bulletin and also predicted for
> September 1, 38 on September 28 and 14 on September 29.
> 
> On Tuesday, September 10, 2019 I will be conducting an informal
> presentation on space weather, propagation and my involvement in
> amateur radio since being licensed at the end of cycle 19 at age 12,
> at the monthly meeting in Seattle of the Western Washington DX Club.
> See https://www.wwdxc.org/ for details.
> 
> Last weekend was the 65th annual Pacific Northwest DX Convention,
> and among the presentations was an excellent talk by Space Weather
> Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW. If you ever get a chance to see her
> give a talk, don't miss it. Her presentation was excellent.
> 
> Jim Brown, W5ZIT of Farmersville, Texas (or Tucson, AZ) wrote on
> August 15:
> 
> "I had just finished an Olivia QSO with Fergus ZL2VF via grey line
> (7 dB s/n peak) as we usually do around 0300Z when I noticed a very
> strong PSK31 signal on 20M which I assumed was a nearby local.
> 
> When I checked I found that it was Suke JM7OLW at 30 dB plus s/n
> ratio. Suke runs 200 Watts to a 5el up about 100 ft, but still that
> is a very strong signal to propagate into Tucson, Arizona. Suke gave
> me a very good 20 dB plus s/n report.
> 
> This morning I tuned across a dead 20M band and again saw a 30 dB
> plus s/n signal which I again assumed was a local. Instead it was
> W4PKU, Fred in VA. With signals barely copyable on 20M PSK in the
> last few days, I was really surprised to see this kind of signal.
> Fred gave me a 30 dB plus s/n report also, from my 30 Watts into an
> 80M OCF antenna. Turns out he had also worked Suke in the last few
> days also.
> 
> The bands can still surprise you even at the low end of the cycle."
> 
> Be sure to check out the W5ZIT page on QRZ.com.
> 
> Ken Brown, N4SO wrote on August 15:
> 
> 18.1 MHZ FT8 mode
> 
> I added Reunion Island and Fiji to the list as worked "new"
> countries on FT8. I have also added a note on both Pacific and
> Europe being decoded at 2210 UTC.
> 
> On several days, 18.1 MHZ was monitored on the digital mode FT8, and
> some contacts were made with 10 watts and a half square antenna.
> 
> The band stays open until about 0300 to 0400 UTC. The numbers on the
> left are UTC. It is possible to receive weak Pacific Ocean stations
> or W8-(K8FAM), until the band closes completely.
> 
> 033915 -17 -0.5 1083 ~  CQ E51BQ BG08      S. Cook Is. 
> 033830   6  0.1 1198 ~  CQ K9OM EN65       USA 
> 
> The band opens at approximately 1200 UTC to all of the Northeast
> USA, Canada, and also to Europe.
> 
> 130800 -12  0.5  306 ~  CQ TO5M GN16       Reunion Is. 
> 131130  -9  0.5  305 ~  N4SO TO5M 73      (Reunion Island new country) 
> 120430 -14 -0.0  418 ~  CQ EA6VQ JM19      Balearic Is. 
> 122200 -14  0.1  902 ~  CQ IZ8VYU JN71     Italy 
> 123130 -11  0.1  902 ~  N4SO IZ8VYU 73 
> 124830 -17  0.6 1930 ~  CQ 9K2NO LL39      Kuwait 
> 125215  -3  0.3 1692 ~  CQ HA7TM JN97      Hungary 
> 131415 -10  0.2 1713 ~  CQ OK2WMC JN99     Czech Rep. 
> 
> 120730  -6  0.0 1452 ~  CQ W9XB EN52       USA 
> 134700   4  0.1  883 ~  CQ N4TZ EN70       USA 
> 
> 122215 -17  0.3 1333 ~  CQ HA7TM JN97      Hungary 
> 124745 -19  0.2  831 ~  CQ F8DZU JN15      France 
> 131915 -15  0.4 2214 ~  CQ VE3MGY EN92     Canada 
> 141115 -18  0.1  709 ~  CQ PA9CC JO32      Netherlands 
> 
> During daylight hours, the 18 MHZ band continues to remain open to
> North America, Europe and also to the Caribbean and South America.
> 
> Africa?  Around 1800 UTC 
> 184700   0  0.4 2513 ~  9G2HO KA1J FN31    Ghana
> 
> Europe and Pacific Ocean? The point of this is to show that
> propagation to both Cyprus and Fiji is possible, with the signals
> from Europe and Russia very weak and not workable. Fiji was worked
> though.
> 
> 221000 -16 -0.1  949 ~  CQ 5B4AMX KM65     Cyprus 
> 221300 -13  0.2 2098 ~  CQ 3D2AG RH91      Fiji  (new country) 
> 221700 -17  0.4 2095 ~  N4SO 3D2AG -11 
> 
> Before sundown (7:36 local time) there is a possibility of Japan and
> Far East stations, or to New Zealand and also Australia. Good times
> are 2200 to 0200 UTC. Japan is favorable after 2200 UTC. Most of
> these were easily worked:
> 
> 222300 -14  0.1 1825 ~  N4SO JF8QNF -19 
> 222300 -12 -0.4  654 ~  N4SO JH0INP PM96 
> 222900 -12  0.1 1908 ~  N4SO JH7CVM 73 
> 222930 -13  0.1 2043 ~  N4SO JH2FXK RR73 
> 224230 -13  0.4  474 ~  N4SO JA1XEC RR73 
> 224900  -7  0.1  787 ~  N4SO JA1NCZ RR73 
> 
> 020000 -16 -0.1 2155 ~  N4SO VK7WX R-10 
> 020015  Tx      2375 ~  VK7WX N4SO RR73                       
> 020030 -17 -0.1 2156 ~  N4SO VK7WX 73  
> 222415 -17  0.1 1859 ~  CQ DX JA7QVI QM08  Japan 
> 000700 -13 -0.1  485 ~  CQ JA8KSF QN03     Japan  
> 004300 -16  0.1 1650 ~  CQ VK4PY QG62      Australia 
> This ZL station was worked with 10 watts, and the numbers (-1) show
> good signals propagated to New Zealand.
> 004730  -3  0.1 1536 ~  CQ ZL2IFB RF80     New Zealand 
> 004830  -1  0.2 1536 ~  N4SO ZL2IFB R-02 
> 
> During the evening hours the band is open to the West coast and
> British Columbia, Canada, and the Pacific such as FK8 New Caledonia.
> The band usually closes with W6, W7, W0 or W9 in the USA, or a
> Pacific Ocean station (South Cook Island E51BQ)."
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for August 8 through 14, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
> and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.6, 67.2, 67.2, 67.6,
> 67.2, 66.8, and 67.4, with a mean of 67.4. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 7, 6, 8, 6, 5, 7, and 5 with a mean of 6.3. Middle
> latitude A index was 6, 7, 8, 7, 7, 8, and 5, with a mean of 6.9.
> NNNN 
> /EX