[SFDXA] Did Joe Taylor K1JT Destroy Amateur Radio?

[Pete Rimmel N8PR]

The writer of that does know how to type, but is not interested in the 
digital modes...

Obviously he does not know how to talk or work CW or DX or Contest or help 
the community in the many ways other hams do.

He should have stayed in the future...

but learned how to think while he was there !

The same was said many years ago about SSB in the old AM days, that I DO 
remember, and look how that worked out !

73,  PeteR  N8PR

-----Original Message----- 
From: The Romagni's
Sent: Monday, May 07, 2018 5:23 PM
To: sfdxa at mailman.qth.net ; wtdxa at yahoogroups.com
Subject: [SFDXA] Did Joe Taylor K1JT Destroy Amateur Radio?

*Amateur Radio Insights*
By Kirk Kleinschmidt NT0Z - nt0z at stealthamateur.com

*Did Joe Taylor K1JT Destroy Amateur Radio?*

Did Joe Taylor K1JT, Nobel Laureate and noted friend of hams everywhere,
accidentally destroy amateur radio?

Having just returned from a trip in my time machine, I can unequivocally
say that history attributes the death of amateur radio to Joe Taylor in the
year 2017. So, yes, he did. In fact, 2018 AD marks the beginning of the
"hampocalypse," and becomes known among former ham operators as 1 AT (the
first year "After Taylor").

The distinguished scientist had some help, of course, but just like the
"flu" epidemic of 2027 (you'll see), in which an attenuated pathogen that
was only supposed to be experimental in nature escaped into the population
at large and quickly replicated itself, Taylor's FT8 digital mode grew
exponentially, suffocating other modes as it mushroomed beyond any
practical limits.

By the time FT9 and FT10 were released - modes that allowed a small amount
of real-time interaction (formerly known as conversation) - it was too
late. Hams, the few who remained, refused to exchange personal
pleasantries, focusing instead on machine-verified signal reports and grid
square exchanges.

In 2 AT, non-machine QSOs were outlawed and rules prohibiting unattended
operations at HF were rescinded worldwide. Amateur allocations were reduced
to 5kHz-wide slices every 2 MHz (from dc to daylight) so computerized
stations could map optimized frequency-hopping and ALE schemes in
real-time. With machine-only modes, additional bandwidth was simply wasted.
The CQWW contest (renamed the CQJTWW contest) was the first major outing to
offer certificates to operators who didn't even know that their
computer-controlled stations had participated in the contest and had turned
in noteworthy scores - the ultimate in unattended operation!

By 3 AT, AI-driven networks saw that humans were completely unnecessary for
contesting and propagation mapping operations, so amateur services were
disbanded worldwide. An AI from Italy, rumored to be running an illegally
"high-powered" FT11 beta processor, worked DXCC in 478 milliseconds, the
fastest to date. Also of note, once occupying 48 hours, the CQJTWW contest,
now worked only by competing AI participants, has been reduced to 8.5
seconds, freeing the contestant AIs to map additional ionospheric
sub-modalities.

In an attempt to recreate a "freeband-like" clandestine radio system that
allowed human-ham interaction on a personal level, some former amateurs
began experimenting with gravity-gradient modulation and quantum
entanglement transceivers - technologies that don't require, or even
benefit from, FT8, FT9, or FT10 style restrictions (well, maybe FT10).

I'd like to share more, but my time in the future was limited by the power
constraints of my device. If you have access to a more powerful time
machine, please tell us what happened next.

*Irreverent, but Not Necessarily Irrelevant*

Yes, my fictional narrative is sassy and irreverent but, unfortunately,
it's probably not irrelevant. The number of global QSOs using Joe's FT8
"machines only" digital mode have exploded, and these effects can clearly
be felt on the bands.

Although I didn't know exactly why at the time, my first exposure to the
JTxx/FTxx effect was during last summer's E-skip season on 6 and 2 meters
(or lack thereof). The two previous years saw plenty of SSB and CW QSOs,
with a nice increase in the typical number of non-contest CW QSOs. I was
working on my VUCC totals and things were looking up.

In 2017, however, traditional activity tanked. There was nobody home. I
didn't know it at the time, but everyone was JTing and FTing when I was
looking the other way. The lack of SSB and CW signals wasn't simply
noticeable, it was incredible. And just last week I went looking for PSK31
signals, as I had been "away" from that mode for quite a while. In short,
there were none. Yikes!

Several months ago columnists in CQ and QST began detailing the magnitude
of the paradigm shift. I was somewhat skeptical at first, but no longer.

*What Hath Joe Wrought?*

In a recent ARRL Letter, expert observers note the explosive growth of FT8
QSOs and the commensurate decline of just about everything else. So far,
K1JT has publicly expressed surprise about how quickly his new digi-modes
have taken off. But, perhaps like Robert Oppenheimer, who grew to feel
quite despondent about creating the atom bomb after the devastation in
Japan, I wonder how K1JT might feel if his creations become "apocalyptic?"

Most coverage of K1JT's software creations and contributions to amateur
radio's technical art have focused on the technical merits alone - which is
a no-brainer. Joe's WSJT-X software suite is a bona-fide technical
masterpiece.

But I'd like to take brief look at the potentially broader implications of
what might happen to amateur radio as a whole in the wake of a globally
disruptive event like FT8. My apologies to Mr. Taylor, as I find that equal
measures of sass, exaggeration, and irreverence are good tools to highlight
latent issues and spark debate!

I don't really think that FT8 will supplant all other aspects of ham radio,
but the downsides of machine-only QSO technologies such as JTxx and FTxx
may dramatically intersect with other issues facing amateur radio as a
whole. So, let's pick off the scab a bit and dig in (in no particular
order).

*Hams Aren't Talking Anyway*

Our individual experience of amateur radio - and most everything else - is
built upon our accumulated experiences, and often seems to "stand still" or
"remain the same," or mostly so. But nothing really stays the same, and
everything is constantly changing. The "change delta" - the apparent speed
of change - is noticeable mostly when we experience jarring, disruptive
change, such as 2017's "JT explosion."

With the benefit of hindsight I can see that I have been a part of the
problem. As a teenage ham in the '70s who didn't have a Callbook or even a
CW filter (let alone an Internet or a packet cluster), I happily sent my
full name and address via slow CW to the other ops during most CW QSOs. We
all did, because if we didn't, we couldn't collect QSL cards, which were
required for all of the operating achievements we were all so diligently
working toward! No eQSL. No LoTW. Just USPS-QSL!

Now, ragchews are still ragchews, if you can find them, but back in the day
our casual, quickie QSOs, even with DX ops, always contained pleasant,
friendly remarks, and operator names and locations, even if they involved
Q-signals and Morse abbreviations. Casual SSB QSOs were even "wordier" with
pleasantries. Whether 73, 88, HPE CU AGN, TNX QSO, GUD DX, FB SIGS, DSW,
TU, GL GD, etc, outside of established contests we didn't just grind out
contest-style QSOs.

But we do today, and it's a blessing and a curse. Yes, more contacts can be
made (perhaps a necessity now that machine-gun-style QSOs are driven by
global packet spotting networks and year-long operating incentives such as
the ARRL's grid-square thingy and CQ magazine's DX Marathon thingy), but a
large measure of camaraderie and personal touches are lost.

Unlike my early years, until recently I didn't have many voice-mode QSOs
because I was living (13 years) in a condo and operating with stealthy
antennas at QRP power levels. I didn't want my voice to be heard coming
from someone's clock radio, but I was OK with Morse dits and PSK31 warbles,
as those would likely be indecipherable by mere mortals.

It's tough to successfully, consistently ragchew via SSB while running low
power to compromised antennas, and I discovered soon after my teenage years
that I didn't really enjoy ragchewing via CW. Contest-style operating, yes.
Conversing at length, no. I don't use any repeaters, and if I need to
ragchew with my local ham buddies I will call them on the phone or chat in
person at Saturday morning ham breakfasts. I did do a bit of ragchewing via
PSK31 a few years back, but even then I was met with an endless series of
"brag files" and surprisingly little conversation! Even if the information
in the brag file is interesting, it's still essentially automated if
nobody's "talking." Now, PSK31 is a somewhat scarce, treasured memory...

Now that I have no practical antenna restrictions and can run power outputs
up to the legal limit, I look forward to chatting via SSB - just as soon as
I find a 100-W rig that I like as much as my Elecraft KX3 (or build an
amplifier)! Even when I don't have to, I'm still running QRP. How many
other excuses can I think of? We are slipping toward a non-conversational
ham radio future, and I seem to be part of the problem!

*Do Kids Just Wanna WSPR?*

These days, everything's about "the kids." Think of the kids who have to be
driven to suburban schools in armored SUVs, who have no opportunity to play
with sticks along the way (walking) or splash around a bit in a mud puddle!
The poor little buggers have to deal with "Nintendo thumb syndrome" and,
because of it, many couldn't hold a stick in their cramped-up little hands
anyway!

I'm going to step down from this soapbox before I get carried away
(actually and literally), but someone is thinking a lot about kids, and
that someone is the ARRL. The League has a massive "think about the kids"
initiative underway, and it's ostensibly all about making amateur radio
more accessible to the smartphone generation.

We can't properly address this issue here for a variety of reasons, but I
think it's interesting how FT8-style operation fits in nicely with
generations - new and old - of introverted hams who ostensibly joined a
communications hobby, but don't want to actually communicate! Let me
explain. Newfangled digital modes such as JTxx and FTxx use space age
encoding, modulation, and DSP/decoding techniques to eke out fantastic
improvements in signal-to-noise ratios that allow radio communication over
propagation paths that won't support SSB or CW contacts. That's the cool
part!

The downside is, taking advantage of these techniques requires long
"integration" times that preclude real-time communication. Most JTxx and
FTxx QSOs require accurate time syncing and back and forth transmission
windows from 15 seconds to several minutes. Limited bits of information can
be transmitted back and forth, but there's no chatting allowed. That's
perfect for sending data back to earth from deep space, which is where the
techniques originated, but not so good for real-time communication.

The only thing that keeps the entire process from being completely
automated is the often-ignored FCC rule that limits unattended operation on
most HF frequencies and the fact that the software has a "send" button that
has to be clicked in real time every now and then by the control operator
(if that option has been selected in the setup menu).

K1JT's WSPR software (weak signal propagation reporter) is similar. Many
ops run their WSPR stations unattended 24/7 whether it's legal or not.
Because many WSPR stations run milliwatts instead of kilowatts, the effects
are minimized, but the rules are the rules, right? I would rather be shot
with a BB gun instead of a .44 magnum - but I'd rather not be shot at all.

WSPR, when done right, is an amazing tool that has already added to our
understanding of global propagation science and practice. It's like a
public, hi-tech chirp-sounder network that can map existing propagation
modes and paths in real time, while uncovering details we hadn't even
imagined. But WSPR isn't really a QSO mode because the integration periods
are even longer than those for JTxx and FTxx, which allow for "limited"
data exchanges. Still, among hams who don't really want to "talk" anyway -
these new modes may be just what the doctor ordered!

I can imagine a youngster asking a parent about joining the local
after-school "ham radio WSPR club."

"Mom, mom!" the excited child exclaims, "remember when we talked about ham
radio, and you were concerned about me having to talk to strangers? Well, I
just learned that I can now join the WSPR club and get on the air like we
talked about - and I'll never have to talk to anyone, ever!"

"Well," says mom, with a bit of a wrinkled brow, "what about interfering
with the neighbors, interfering with your schoolwork - and what about those
big, ugly ham antennas we looked at?"

"That's the best part, mom," says the excited child, "WSPR uses tiny power,
so it won't bother anyone. And because it uses super new technology, I
won't even really need an antenna! Schoolwork will still be my main focus -
after online gaming - because my WSPR box talks to my game system - and it
tells me where my signals have been heard and posts them on the Internet!"

Mom, now starting to smile, says, "Wow, you've really done your homework,
haven't you? But, what about getting your FCC license? Won't that be
difficult?"

"No way, mom!" says the still excited child, "My teacher says that, thanks
to a new program by some organization called the ARRL, I can simply go to a
class for three afternoons to get my WSPR license. There isn't even a test
anymore. Cool!"

Far-fetched? I don't think so. If you look at historical trends, something
like this seems almost inevitable. The ARRL, which seems to be switching to
a kids first, "lowest common denominator" approach to everything it does,
is pushing hard for increased HF privileges for Technician- class hams, for
example, so they can take better advantage of digimodes and, hopefully,
want to get further into the hobby by upgrading.

My sarcasm aside, a test-free WSPR-class license might actually make
perfect sense (especially in middle school science classes), as long as we
restrict WSPR operation (and power levels) to tiny slivers of little-used
parts of existing bands (and there are plenty of them).

Is the drive to "save" amateur radio at all costs worthwhile? Does
everything have to be saved and/or packaged so it's accessible to every
kid, everywhere? By my standards, amateur radio license tests are already
so easy to pass that they pose no barrier for the vast majority of
potential applicants. I recently prepped one of my friends over a casual
two-hour lunch, after which he went from civilian to General-class operator
with no additional study. All without ever owning or using a radio or even
keying a mic.

Taken to its logical conclusion, before long there may only be one license
class - just like before incentive licensing! It took me years to fully
understand that, for most things, we only truly appreciate things that
require effort, time or money - or all of the above.

Modern kids are still investing time, effort, and money into the things
that interest them. Video games. Coding. Software development. Hardware
hacking. Dating. Boys. Girls. Bikes. Cars. Ham radio. What do you think?

*Antenna Here is 6-Foot Loaded Dipole*

Because of deed restrictions, etc, entire generations of hams have come up
without knowing what it's like to operate with "real" antennas. I can no
longer count the number of times newbies have asked me whether the small,
expensive, portable antenna systems designed to be used by backpackers from
mountaintops, are "good" for use at home in their backyards. Heck no,
they're not good. They're horrible!

As highlighted later in this column, our antennas define our experience of
amateur radio. Crap antennas equal crappy experiences overall. And while
hams from my generation are dreaming about tall towers with stacks of big
Yagis (already having real outdoor dipoles and loops), many newbies are
dreaming about a too-low wire dipoles hidden in their backyard trees, or
outdoor antennas of any type. And while they dream they're messing with
what are essentially expensive non-antennas, and they're wondering why ham
radio isn't so nifty.

These new hams are often surprised when I tell them that, if I could have a
stack of killer antennas on top of a killer-high tower, I'd gladly trade my
fancy new transceiver - any fancy new transceiver-for a 1970s Kenwood,
Heathkit or Yaesu rig, which they view as anachronistic and completely
useless. No questions asked. You can make up for a compromised radio, but
you can't make up for a compromised antenna. Or can you?

Actually, if the machine-only aspects of emerging digital hamming can be
addressed, the crappy antenna scenario can be somewhat mitigated by
emerging digital technology. Technologies such as JTxx and FTxx offer 20-30
dB improvements over SSB and CW - and that's huge. Unlike the
keyboard-to-keyboard digimodes such as PSKxx and MFSKxx, however, which
allow conversations to take place with a 10-20 dB advantage over SSB and
CW, you're still mostly in the WSPR club.

*Teeny Bands Are All We Need*

The ARRL and other groups fight tooth and nail to preserve spectrum space,
but if everything migrates to JTxx and FTxx style operation, ham bands can
be tiny slivers of their former glory. Lots of digimode QSOs fit inside the
space of a single SSB QSO, and because you often can't hear the signals
with your ears, you have to hover around a calling frequency anyway, so who
needs all that empty space?

*No Need to Call CQ on Big Bands*

Even if the ham bands "stay big," we wouldn't need to cluster around
calling frequencies if we simply have our PCs coordinate our QSOs on the
Internet before automatically switching our radios to the agreed-upon
frequency so our PCs can work each other and tell us all about it.

By doing so we could easily limit our QSOs to a group of "whitelisted"
friends, members of a certain ham club (rifle association, sports team,
political party), or hams who have sent us "greenbacks" (Bitcoins?) for our
rare virtual "QSL cards." DXpeditions might be quite profitable that way,
and while your robo-transceivers are churning out QSOs, you can be fishing,
swimming or surfing!

Between global spotting networks, the reverse beacon network, the WSPR net,
IFTTT, and PSK Reporter, etc, we can already do most of these things with
existing technology, so although I'm being somewhat speculative (and more
than a little sarcastic), bringing amateur radio into the "digital digital
age" isn't as easy as it once looked.

*Toward an Uncertain Future*

The future - where ham radio is going and what it's becoming - is a product
of what exists now and what has already come before. Today's amateurs exist
on the leading edge of a continuum that started (very slowly) a few hundred
years ago with basic explorations of electricity and magnetism, but is
rushing forward at an exponential pace.

This rapid evolution of technology in general isn't radio exclusive, of
course, but it's still amazing to simply step back and take it all in. It's
easy to "miss the magic" because we're surrounded by it every minute of
every day. But even if we don't usually notice it, the technology train is
barreling down the tracks at an ever-increasing pace. Ham radio is also
streaking forward and, in some ways, is approaching a point of no return -
an event horizon from which there's no turning back.

Unlike the equestrian arts, for example, in which riding a horse under an
English saddle is substantially the same today as it was 100 or even 500
years ago, ham radio isn't the same. Spark-gap transmitters have been duly
outlawed and, save for a relatively small cadre of enthusiasts,
plate-modulated AM isn't heard much anymore, either. Regenerative receivers
are all home-brew these days, lovingly crafted by a few caretakers who
still safeguard the Major's gift. The elegant mechanical designs that made
earlier radios so special - and frustrating - with ganged capacitors,
clever synchronized cam-and-lever assemblies and robust mechanical dials,
have all been replaced with software and programmable logic arrays.

For better or worse, amateur radio is firmly embedded in the digital
domain, and if you think that emerging future systems won't supplant what
we now think of as amateur radio, evolution will certainly prove you wrong!

Ham radio's first hundred years witnessed dramatic change, and in another
hundred years we probably won't even recognize what ham radio has become -
if ham radio exists at all. In "geologic time," ham radio will likely have
come and gone in a finite, and rather small, window of evolution.

With what we know about the evolutionary progression of other technologies,
species, etc, and all of the evidence we've collected to date, there's a
good chance that the phenomenon we call amateur radio will have been born,
matured, evolved and "died," in a 150-250 year period. Period!

And as if this isn't unsettling enough, let's not forget to marvel at the
quirks of solar and planetary physics that enable radio at the fundamental
level. Electricity and magnetism - still largely unfathomable even though
we take them for granted on a practical level - comprise radio on a local
level, but "global radio" requires an ionosphere, which is itself powered
by the sun, whose output varies in mysterious cycles, etc. The list of
dependencies and "coincidences" is really starting to add up! And if you
take away even one part of the whole interdependent system - poof! - no
radio.

Therefore, if you love amateur radio as it's practiced today, you'd better
get busy enjoying it - today! - because our entire hobby likely exists in a
precious, precarious evolutionary bubble, never experienced before and
probably never to be experienced again.

Whether it's an inflection point or the point of no return, when you woke
up today (or any day in the past few years), amateur radio was different.
There's no wondering about whether it will someday be different - that day
is today and amateur radio is different. Joe Taylor "caused" the present,
local disturbance, but if he hadn't, someone else would have.

In the present moment, though, even if we have crossed the event horizon,
amateur radio is still alive and well, and our far-off future - albeit
closer than ever as evidenced by JTxx and FTxx digital technology - is yet
to be determined.

The full breadth of past and present radio is available for exploring
(spark gaps excepted!). We can build a classic regenerative receiver or buy
a state-of-the-art synthesized radio. We can use Morse code or the most
advanced computerized digital signal modulation. Or we can use a primitive
regen to copy the most advanced digital signals (perhaps stabilizing the
oscillating detector via GPS?). But it won't stay that way - guaranteed!
______________________________________________________________
South Florida DX Assoc. "SINCE 1974"
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