[SFDXA] ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Mar 16 17:20:11 EDT 2018

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011
> ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP11
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11  ARLP011
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  March 16, 2018
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP011
> ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> No sunspots were observed between March 2 and March 15.  One sunspot
> made a brief appearance on March 2, after a blank sun on March 1.
> Average daily sunspot number dropped from 1.6 to zero this week, and
> average daily solar flux rose fractionally from 67.6 to 67.7.  We'll
> be watching the latest sunspot appearance to see if it is as
> fleeting as the March 2 sunspot.
> 
> Geomagnetic indicators rose slightly, with planetary A index
> increasing from 5.1 to 7.1, and mid-latitude A index rose from 4.6
> to 5.7.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 69 on March 16 to 23, 72 on March 24 to 29,
> 70 on March 30, 68 on March 31 through April 11, 70 on April 12, 72
> on April 13 to 25, 70 on April 26, and 68 on April 27 to 29.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 15 on March 16 to 18, 10 on March 19,
> 5 on March 20 to 22, then 8, 5, 8 and 20 on March 23 to 26, 5 on
> March 27 to 29, 8 on March 30 and 31, 5 on April 1 to 9, then 8, 10,
> 14, 16 and 20 on April 10 to 14, 5 on April 15 and 16, then 12, 18,
> 10, 5, 8 and 20 on April 17 to 22, then 5 on April 23 to 25, 8 on
> April 26 and 27, and 5 on April 28 and 29.
> 
> Carl Luetzelshwab, K9LA has a comment about solar flux and an
> observation from N0JK in last week's bulletin ARLP010:
> 
> "Jon Jones, N0JK said Sometimes the solar flux numbers don't
> correlate well to the actual ionization.
> 
> What Jon said is more the norm than the exception, as solar
> radiation is not the only factor that contributes to the amount of
> ionization at any given location.  There are two other factors.  One
> is geomagnetic field activity (the K index), which can modify the
> amount of ionization.  The other is an event in the lower atmosphere
> that couples up to the ionosphere, which also can modify the amount
> of ionization and which is a very hot topic with researchers
> nowadays.
> 
> The bottom line is if today's solar flux is higher than yesterday's,
> it does not necessarily mean that the ionosphere is better today -
> it could be worse.  The result of all of this is that we have
> monthly median propagation predictions (they are statistical over a
> month's time frame), not daily propagation predictions."
> 
> This in from Tamitha Skov on early Thursday in a message titled
> "Solarstorm Mania all over the news":
> 
> "How ironic is it that only one week after I talk about significant
> advances towards making Space Weather a household name, we get
> smacked in the face with a bogus story about a massive solar storm
> threatening to swallow the Earth?  From what I've heard, this story
> began innocently enough-- someone misread an info-graphic on a
> Russian space weather website.  But then the mistake went viral.
> Over the past few days, reports spread around the globe, sending
> people into a panic.  I've watched major news agencies publish the
> story, only to print embarrassing retractions a day later.  All of
> this simply because they ran with a story they did not have the
> expertise to fact check.  I hate to admit it, but just as I thought
> we were doing so well, I am reminded of how far we have yet to go.
> 
> "This week our Sun is indeed sending us a solar storm, but it's not
> all fire and brimstone.  It's the weak, wispy kind we continue to
> expect as we approach solar minimum.  The fact that the storm is
> weak actually brings us some good news.  For amateur radio operators
> and emergency communicators already wrestling with poor radio
> propagation conditions on Earth's day side, communications might
> improve on Earth's night side, especially with auroral propagation.
> GPS users should also enjoy the quiet conditions, but be aware for
> glitches, especially after sunset and at higher latitudes where
> aurora is active.  As for aurora sightings during this weak storm,
> reports are coming in from Norway, Sweden, and Finland as well as
> from Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan Canada.  In the U.S.A.
> aurora has been sighted as far south as Michigan and Minnesota.
> 
> "While all of these solar storm effects are surely noteworthy, they
> are hardly catastrophic or even massive.  So as far as all the hype?
> I think we can safely put that story to bed."
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-DK43Rx0Xo
> 
> "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 16 to Apr 10,
> 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
> 
> Geomagnetic field will be:
> Quiet on March 20, 24, 28 and 29, April 1 and 2, 4 to 9
> Mostly quiet on March 21, 30 and 31, April 3
> Quiet to unsettled on March 19, 22 and 23, 25, 27
> Quiet to active on March 16 to 18
> Active to disturbed on March 26
> 
> Solar wind will intensify on March 16 to 18, (19 and 20, 25 and 26,
> April 3 to -?).
> 
> Remark:
> - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."
> 
> This is from Jeff, N8II from West Virginia on March 15:
> 
> "There probably are a record number of Dxpeditions to the 'Terrible
> T's' and other countries from Africa, so named because several of
> the African countries that begin with T (former French) were some of
> the rarest countries.
> 
> Today on 15 meters TN5R, Congo Republic, TY7C, Benin, and TJ2TT,
> Cameroon were all operating 15M phone at the same time as were the
> returning Lithuanians on Annobon Island, 3C0W.  I worked Annobon,
> failed to get Cameroon, and had already worked the other two.  In
> addition on 15M phone were 5V7SM, Togo (worked) and 9X9PS from
> Rwanda, quite a line up.
> 
> At times, signals from Africa have been totally unreadable or very
> weak on 15M, but the solar wind picked up today raising the MUF
> despite nearly identical SFI (69 today) compared to other days this
> week.
> 
> Also, an expedition to PJ5 was unreadable on 15M CW the past 2 days,
> was S9 at 1400Z today.  The best signals for the most part from
> Africa were in the 1400Z hour also, except for Annobon who was
> louder around 1600Z.  I have logged the Benin and Congo groups on
> several bands including 80M, but the MUF has been too low to hear
> any of them on 12 or 10 meters.  The only rare DX worked this week
> on 12M was XR0YD, Easter Is. on CW who has also been logged on 80
> through 15M.
> 
> Conditions on 80 are considerably worse than in Dec. and Jan., but
> good enough to still work some of the Dxpeditions.  160M signals
> have been very weak, but 40 and 30 meters have improved as the night
> time MUF has risen due to seasonal change.  I finally logged Annobon
> on 30M today after quite a bit of calling during which they were
> good copy to loud but running many Japanese and EU stations.  I
> would guess their 30M JA/USA QSO ratio was at least 25 to 1 up until
> today when they were S9 at 2000Z (my sunset is 2318Z), louder than
> yesterday.  So, obviously they had a very good JA path for several
> hours, way before JA sunrise until way after their sunrise.
> 
> 20 meters continues to be my best band for DX by far; I also logged
> A5A in Bhutan around 1500Z on CW today. EU signals are generally
> moderate to fairly loud all morning long and SW EU stays in to about
> 2200Z on good days. The morning short path to Australia appears to
> be closed to very marginal most days. 17 meters is often usable to
> Europe and the Middle East around 1400-1700Z, but signals are weaker
> and often exclude northern and eastern EU."
> 
> Mark Lunday, WD4ELG in Greensboro, North Carolina has sent some
> interesting reports on his experiments with QRSS mode. What is it?
> Extremely slow speed CW, so slow that a single dit may last for 60
> seconds. Using a computer sound card and special QRSS software,
> stations running power levels as low as 10 microwatts can be
> extracted out of the noise.
> 
> See:
> 
> http://www.w0ch.net/qrss/qrss.htm
> 
> http://dropbox.curry.com/docs/2012_The_world_of_QRSS.pdf
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for March 8 through 14, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
> and 0, with a mean of 0.  10.7 cm flux was 66.6, 67.5, 67.7, 67.8,
> 68.1, 68.6, and 67.7, with a mean of 67.7.  Estimated planetary A
> indices were 4, 12, 12, 6, 3, 4, and 9, with a mean of 7.1.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 10, 9, 7, 2, 3, and 6, with
> a mean of 5.7.
> NNNN
> /EX