[SFDXA] ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA
Bill M
bmarx at bellsouth.net
Fri Mar 9 12:48:48 EST 2018
> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010
> ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA
>
> ZCZC AP10
> QST de W1AW
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10 ARLP010
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA March 9, 2018
> To all radio amateurs
>
> SB PROP ARL ARLP010
> ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA
>
> Only one day (March 2) showed any sunspot activity over the past
> reporting week, with a daily sunspot number of 11 so average daily
> sunspot activity declined from 6 to 1.6. Average daily solar flux
> went from 68.3 to 67.6.
>
> No sunspots have been seen since March 2.
>
> Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, with average planetary A index
> dropping from 10.4 to 5.1, and mid-latitude A index from 7.4 to 4.6.
>
> Predicted solar flux is 68 on March 9-15, 70 on March 16, 72 on
> March 17-29, 70 on March 30, 68 on March 31 through April 11, 70 on
> April 12, and 72 on April 13-22.
>
> Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 10 on March 9-10, 5 on March
> 11-16, then 15 and 18 on March 17-18, 5 on March 19-20, then 12, 18,
> 10, 5, 8 and 20 on March 21-26, 5 on March 27-29, 8 on March 30-31,
> then 5 on April 1-3, 8 on April 4-5, 5 on April 6-9, then 10, 12,
> 12, 15 and 18 on April 10-14, 5 on April 15-16, then 12, 18, 10, 8,
> 5 and 20 on April 17-22.
>
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 9 to April 3,
> 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
>
> "Geomagnetic field will be:
> Quiet on March 12-13, 20, 29, April 1-2
> Mostly quiet on March 9, 19, 24, 28, 30-31, April 3
> Quiet to unsettled on March 10-11, 14-15, 19, 23, 25, 27
> Quiet to active on March 16, 21-22
> Active to disturbed on March 17-18, 26
>
> "Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes cannot be
> predicted for the period before March 10, but I do not expect any
> significant upsurge. Then solar wind will intensify on March (10,)
> 16-18, (19-20, 25-26, April 3).
>
> "Remark:
> - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
> - With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts remains less
> reliable especially in the first half of March."
>
> Regular contributor David Moore shared this Science Daily article
> with us concerning how magnetic waves heat the Sun's atmosphere and
> propel solar wind:
>
> https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180306093302.htm
>
> From Jon Jones, N0JK:
>
> "I went out fixed mobile on 10 meters early Sunday afternoon around
> 1900z March 4 in the ARRL DX SSB from eastern Kansas. 1/4 wave whip
> with 5 watts. Didn't expect much on 10 with the SFI of only 68, but
> was pleasantly surprised with good conditions on 10.
>
> "Sometimes the solar flux numbers don't correlate well to the actual
> ionization. Both TEP to deep South America and one hop F2 skip to
> the Caribbean and northern South America was in. PJ4G, FM5AN and
> 8P5A were up to an honest 40 dB over S9. They were loud!
>
> "Skip zones were very evident with others closer or further away
> much weaker.
>
> "Saw Hawaii spotted to the west coast, no copy here. K6IJ in
> northern California said the Hawaiian stations were very loud.
> Shortest F2 heard was C6. Kudos to PZ5K for pulling my weak signal
> out of the noise. Ended up with 14 contacts in 11 countries."
>
> Jon sent this on March 8:
>
> "Along with improved conditions on 10 meters March 4 in the ARRL DX
> SSB contest, on March 8, 6 meters opened for afternoon TEP across
> the geomagnetic equator between the Caribbean, Central America to
> deep South America starting around 2200z. Contacts were made using
> CW, SSB and the new FT8 digital mode. SFI 67, SSN = 0, K = 1."
>
> And on March 8:
>
> "Jon N0JK -- some 6 meter spots March 8:
>
> "TI5/N5BEK 2256Z 50313.0 9db FT8 CX9AU
> HI8PLE 2249Z 50313.0 FT8 -03 in GF05rk LW2DAF
> ZF1EJ 2248Z 50313.0 FT8 -01 in GF05rk LW2DAF
> HH2AA 2248Z 50130.0 Now in ssb calling CX9AU
> NP2Q 2248Z 50313.0 FT8 -12 IN GF05rk LW2DAF
> KP4S 2247Z 50110.0 LU4EFC
> HH2AA 2246Z 50313.0 -10db in GF05rk LW2DAF
> WP4CQ 2244Z 50110.0 Gracias x QSO! LU4EFC
> HH2AA 2241Z 50103.0 tnx fer QSO..! 73 LU5DF
> WP4CQ 2241Z 50101.0 tnx fer qso and 579 73 CX9AU
> HH2AA 2232Z 50101.0 Now go to cw 50101 CX9AU
> YS1AG/B 2227Z 50022.0 529 LU5DF
> HH2AA 2226Z 50313.0 tnx 73 Dan CX9AU
> WP4CQ 2222Z 50110.0 55 IN GF05rk LW2DAF
> OA4B/B 2218Z 50036.3 539 LU5DF
> HH2AA 2217Z 50313.0 FT8 LU1DKC
> HI8PLE 2215Z 50125.0 59 gracias Edgar CX9AU
> HI8PLE 2214Z 50125.0 S8 in GF05rk LW2DAF
> HI8PLE 2212Z 50110.0 Gracias x QSO! LU4EFC
> NP4BM 2211Z 50115.0 S8 in GF05rk LW2DAF
> LU4EFC 2210Z 50110.0 HI8PLE
> NP4BM 2208Z 50115.0 Gracias Victor 59 tambien CX9AU
> NP4BM 2204Z 50110.0 55 Gracias Victor, 73 LU5DF
> NP4BM 2202Z 50110.0 CQ 59 LW3EX"
>
> This week I am not sure what Dr. Tamitha Skov means by "solar
> storms." I don't see any geomagnetic effects, at least since January
> 27:
>
> http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-geomagnetic-indices.txt
>
> The latest from Dr. Skov:
>
> "This week finds me knee-deep leading the Space Weather
> Certification Committee for the American Meteorological Society.
> We've made some real headway this week and I wanted to share the
> good news. The committee has decided to focus its efforts on
> establishing a broadcast certification for getting information out
> to the public, instead of going for a science-related, but more
> technical consulting certification for industry. This means we put
> YOU first!
>
> "I couldn't be more thrilled with this decision. We are now free to
> concentrate on finding ways to train meteorologists and give them
> the tools they need to bring Space Weather into our living rooms. I
> have you to thank for keeping me honest and inspired as we continue
> building the future. We still have a long way to go, but today it
> feels like we are one step closer to the Sun.
>
> "This week's forecast finds amateur radio operators disappointed at
> the dimming of old region 2699. We had hoped it would stay bright
> and boost the solar flux, but instead it has retreated back
> underneath the surface of the Sun. This means HF radio propagation
> remains poor. As a consolation, the Sun has launched several solar
> storms, including one that is Earth-directed.
>
> "Along with some fast wind we are expecting over the next few days,
> this could bump us up to storm levels and bring us some more aurora,
> especially at high latitudes.
>
> "Cheers, Tamitha!"
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPrusKlVV-M
>
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net .
>
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
>
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
>
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
>
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
>
> Sunspot numbers for March 1 through 7, 2018 were 0, 11, 0, 0, 0, 0,
> and 0, with a mean of 1.6. 10.7 cm flux was 67.2, 67.8, 67.8, 67.5,
> 67.6, 67.6, and 67.8, with a mean of 67.6. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 6, 4, 6, 6, 5, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.1. Estimated
> mid-latitude A indices were 5, 3, 5, 7, 5, 4, and 3, with a mean of
> 4.6.
> NNNN
> /EX
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