[SFDXA] ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill M]

> ZCZC AP01
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1  ARLP001
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  January 5, 2018
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP001
> ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> No sunspots appeared from December 27, 2017 until January 4, 2018.
> As Solar Cycle 24 declines to a minimum over the next two years we
> should see longer and more numerous periods of no sunspots. On
> January 4 the daily sunspot number was 13, indicating 3 sunspots in
> one sunspot group, although Spaceweather.com reported no sunspots on
> that day. The sunspot number for that day was reported by NOAA at
> ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt .
> 
> On January 4 Spaceweather.com reported a stream of solar wind should
> reach Earth on January 8, triggering some geomagnetic unrest, but
> nothing severe.
> 
> Over the recent reporting week (Thursday through Wednesday) the
> average daily sunspot number declined from 17.4 to 0, while
> average daily solar flux went from 74.6 to 70.4.
> 
> Average daily planetary A index declined from 7.1 to 5.1, while
> average daily mid-latitude A index went from 5.7 to 3.4.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 70 on January 5-6, 69 on January 7-8, 68 on
> January 9-11, 70 on January 12, 72 on January 13-24, 70 on January
> 25, 68 on January 26-31, 70 on February 1-8, and 72 on February
> 9-18.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 5-6, then 8, 12 and 7 on
> January 7-9, 5 on January 10-12, then 22, 16 and 6 on January 13-15,
> 5 on January 16-19, then 12, 10, 8 and 6 on January 20-23, 5 on
> January 24-26, then 6, 25, 15 and 8 on January 27-30, 5 on January
> 31 through February 2, then 10, 12 and 6 on February 3-5, 5 on
> February 6-8, then 22, 16 and 6 on February 9-11, 5 on February
> 12-15, then 12, 10 and 8 on February 16-18.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 5-January 31,
> 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be:
> Quiet on January 5, 11, 17-19, 31
> Mostly quiet on January 6, 10, 30
> Quiet to unsettled on January 12, 15-16, 23-26
> Quiet to active on January 7, 20, 22, 27-29
> Active to disturbed on January 8-9, 13-14, 21
> 
> "Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on
> January (6-8,) 10-12, (13,) 19-20, (21-22, 28-31).
> 
> "Remark: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity
> enhancement."
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net . 
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 28, 2017 to January 3, 2018 were 0, 0,
> 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 71.1, 71.5,
> 70.4, 70.7, 69.1, 69.5, and 70.7, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated
> planetary A indices were 5, 4, 3, 4, 11, 5, and 4, with a mean of
> 5.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 2, 2, 8, 4, and 3,
> with a mean of 3.4.
> NNNN
> /EX