[SFDXA] ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill M]

> 
> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006
> ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP06
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6  ARLP006
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  February 9, 2018
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP006
> ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Compared to the previous seven days, solar activity increased in the
> first week of February. There were two days with no sunspots,
> February 1 and 3. On February 2 a new sunspot region emerged, but by
> the next day it had disappeared. Another sunspot region appeared on
> February 4, and the area it covered on February 4-7 was 80, 130, 160
> and 200 millionths of the solar hemisphere.
> 
> We haven't seen as much coverage since October 7, 2017 when the
> total sunspot area was 220 millionths of the solar hemisphere and
> the sunspot number was 11, the minimum non-zero sunspot number.
> 
> A dozen days prior on September 25 the sunspot number was 36 and the
> total sunspot area (as always, expressed in millionths of a solar
> hemisphere) was 560.
> 
> You can see that already the sunspot numbers and solar flux have
> dropped since last year:
> 
> ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2017_DSD.txt
> 
> As a reference, you can compare these numbers with the peak of the
> current cycle in 2014:
> 
> ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/2014_DSD.txt
> 
> Note the year contained in the above two URLs. You can edit that to
> look at any year, back to 1994.
> 
> You can look here to see graphs of sunspot and solar flux activity,
> and see what the daily numbers were for the previous peak and
> minima:
> 
> http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/
> 
> So last week the average daily sunspot number increased from 3.7 (at
> the end of January) to 10.3 and average solar flux from 69.1 to
> 72.5. Average planetary A index decreased modestly from 6.3 to 4.4,
> while average mid-latitude A index (measured at one location, in
> Virginia) decreased from 4.9 to 3.6.
> 
> The heightened activity should continue over the next week.
> Predicted solar flux is 78 on February 9-10, 76 on February 11-12,
> 74 on February 13-14, 72 on February 15-16, 70 on February 17-22, 69
> on February 23-28, 70 and 71 on March 1-2, 72 on March 3-14, 71 on
> March 15, 70 on March 16-21, and 69 on March 22-25.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 8 on February 9, 5 on February 10-16,
> then 8, 10, 5, 8, 10, and 8 on February 17-22, 5 on February 23
> through March 13, then 8, 12, 8, 10, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on March 14-21
> and 5 on March 22-25.
> 
> F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the
> period February 9-March 8, 2018.
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be:
> Quiet on February 12-14, 20
> Mostly quiet on February 17, 23, 25-27, March 1-3, 5-8
> Quiet to unsettled on February 11, 15, 18-19, 21-22, 24, 28
> Quiet to active on February 9-10, 16, March 4
> Active to disturbed-not anticipated
> 
> "Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on
> February 5-6, 9-12, 18-19, 27-28."
> 
> Al Kaiser, N1API of Meriden, Connecticut sent a report on Sunday,
> February 4:
> 
> "During the 10-10 QSO Party on Sunday February 4 we had what was
> probably a nice sporadic-E opening that started with NC about 1507
> UTC, then nothing until TN on 1704 which quickly changed to solid
> signals from OH, IL, IN, AND MI.  By about 1822 it was all over. 10
> meters always has some surprises in store."
> 
> Jeff, N8II reported from West Virginia on February 8:
> 
> "This week, there is very little good news of improved openings on
> 17 (a bit better than a week ago) and 15 meters so far despite the
> considerably higher SFI.
> 
> "But, all of the low bands including 160 seem better thanks to more
> ionosphere. Tonight, February 9 UTC, I worked A45XR (Oman) first
> call on 80M CW at 0053Z who was S8 and around the same time logged
> Denmark and Slovenia with good signals. I also logged Z61DX Kosovo,
> on 17M CW at 1540Z today February 8th for a new band country and
> Z60A was S9 on 40 CW tonight, but too many calling to get through.
> There were many S9+ Europeans on 20M this morning, much better
> signals than a month ago."
> 
> A new space weather video from Dr. Tamitha Skov can be seen at:
> 
> http://bit.ly/2EtXBtz
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net .
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for February 1-7, 2018 were 0, 11, 0, 11, 13, 17,
> and 20, with a mean of 10.3. 10.7 cm flux was 69, 68.8, 69.2, 73,
> 74, 76.9, and 76.6, with a mean of 72.5. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 4, 4, 3, 3, 8, 5, and 4, with a mean of 4.4. Estimated
> mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 2, 3, 8, 4, and 3, with a mean of
> 3.6.
> NNNN
> /EX