[SFDXA] ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Feb 2 22:03:04 EST 2018

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005
> ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP05
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5  ARLP005
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  February 2, 2018
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP005
> ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Low solar activity continues. There were no sunspots seen from
> January 20-29, and the sunspot number was 13 on January 30-31, but
> back to 0 on February 1. Average daily solar flux declined
> marginally from 70 to 69.1.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 70 on February 2, 71 on February 3-8, 70 on
> February 9-22, 69 on February 23 to March 4, 70 on March 5-18.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 2-3, 10 and 8 on
> February 4-5, 5 on February 6-8, then 8, 12 and 8 on February 9-11,
> 5 on February 12-14, then 8, 12, 8, 10, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on February
> 15-22, 5 on February 23 to March 2, 8 on March 3-4, 5 on March 5-7,
> then 8, 12 and 8 on March 8-10, 5 on March 11-13, then 8, 12, 8, 10
> and 5 on March 14-18.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 2-28, 2018
> from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be:
> Quiet on February 2, 5-8, 12-14, 20
> Mostly quiet on February 3, 9, 17, 23, 25-27
> Quiet to unsettled on February 11, 16, 18-19, 21-22
> Quiet to active on February 4, 10, 15, 24, 28
> Active to disturbed-not anticipated
> 
> "Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on
> February 5-6, 9-12, 18-19, 27-28
> 
> "Remark:
> - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
> - With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts are even less reliable."
> 
> Joe Flamini, W4BXJ of White Hall, Virginia wrote on January 29:
> 
> "So, I usually leave the 10-meter rig scanning in the shack, and
> it's usually quiet. So much so, in fact, that I forget it's there.
> Imagine my surprise to hear a couple of ZLs talking mobile-to-mobile
> at about 1500 GMT on January 27. I reached out and had a 45-second
> QSO with them both before the link faded. That'll never happen
> again!"
> 
> I checked back with Joe, and he told me it all happened so fast he
> didn't log their call signs, but they were both mobile in the
> Christchurch area, and I estimate the short path distance at about
> 8,800 miles.
> 
> The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov can be seen at,
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG9cMZnTp1Y .
> 
> Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote on February
> 1:
> 
> "The solar indices have been remarkably very similar day to day in
> January with K index seldom above 2, often 0 and SFI running 69-71.
> There are other factors that influence signal strength on 80 meters
> and even more so on 160 meters night to night.
> 
> "During the CQWW 160 Meter CW contest last weekend, I missed the
> best hours to EU around EU sunrise the first night, but EU signals
> did seem down considerably from 2300Z-0240Z when I operated and the
> second night was even worse, about as poor as winter conditions ever
> get to EU.
> 
> "There were quite loud west coast signals around sunrise Saturday
> morning with two strong callers from VE7 (British Columbia) and a
> good signal from KH7M in Hawaii.
> 
> "The second night ZC4A, UK Sovereign Base Areas on Cypress, was
> calling CQ on my run frequency and I could not hear them at all, on
> a few USA calling ZC4A. Sunday night after the contest ended ZC4A
> was 579!
> 
> "But, it was not until several nights later that I was able to
> complete a QSO on their last night of operation. I also worked them
> on 80 meters both modes, 40 meters both modes on January 26 (not
> very loud when worked there) and on 30 meters CW where they were
> barely readable at 0541Z.
> 
> "Signals on 80 meters were quite a bit louder than the other bands.
> 40 meters seems to be improving to EU with some southern EU stations
> still having decent signals well into our evening.
> 
> "I have added quite a few band countries on the low bands lately
> (log started Jan 2017). And on the 26th on 80 meters CW I worked
> TG9ADM Guatemala, CP4BT Bolivia (quite rare), and less rare but more
> distant RI50ANO on the South Shetland Islands off of Antarctica.
> 
> "I also have logged Alex, RI50ANO on 40 meters phone and CW. By far
> the hardest to work DX recently was last night February 1 working
> UN9L Kazakhstan on 80 meters CW. He was weak but readable and heard
> me right away, but it took several tries to get my call through.
> 
> "Over the last two months I have checked DX cluster 80 meters spots
> on him, only to hear nothing. The slightly increased daylight near
> the North Pole seems to be improving conditions as of about Jan 20.
> 15 meters has been pretty close to dead even to Africa many days,
> but today C81G off the coast of Mozambique was worked on 15 CW and
> EA6VQ Balearic Islands was S9+ there from 1615-1650Z. Even 17 meters
> is closed or very marginal to EU many days due to the low solar
> flux.
> 
> "The big DXCC news is the addition of Kosovo (Z6) to the DXCC list
> effective January 21st. The Z60A club station has a good signal on
> 20 meters every day and they have worked the west coast there and on
> 40 meters. I logged them easily on the 21st on 20 CW, not a very
> large pile up, and also later on 20 SSB and 80 meters CW. They seem
> to have a high noise level on the low bands."
> 
> David Moore sent this link about stellar magnetism:
> 
> http://bit.ly/2DV4Abz
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net .
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for January 25-31, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13, and
> 13, with a mean of 3.7. 10.7 cm flux was 70.3, 69.8, 68.8, 68.5,
> 68.2, 68.9, and 69.2, with a mean of 69.1. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 10, 8, 6, 4, 4, 5, and 7, with a mean of 6.3. Estimated
> mid-latitude A indices were 9, 7, 5, 2, 3, 3, and 5, with a mean of
> 4.9.
> NNNN
> /EX