[SFDXA] ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

[Bmarx@bellsouth.net]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051
> ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP51
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51  ARLP051
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  December 21, 2018
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP051
> ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> On Wednesday, December 19 Spaceweather.com displayed this headline:
> "Solar minimum conditions are in effect," followed by "The Sun has
> been without sunspots for 209 days in 2018--that is, 59% of the
> time. To find a similar stretch of blank Suns, you have to go back
> to 2009 when the Sun was experiencing the deepest solar minimum in a
> century."
> 
> Looking at my own records, I show the average daily sunspot number
> for all of 2009 was 5.05, and average daily solar flux was 70.6.
> 
> Looking at the past two months (October 19 through December 19) the
> same values were 3.6 and 69.4, so we are clearly down in the same
> sort of minima.
> 
> Of course, there are many ways to slice and dice the numbers, so
> rather than 3.6 and 69.4 from the past two months, looking at all
> the numbers for 2018 so far, we see averages of 6.6 and 69.9.
> 
> Average daily sunspot numbers for the past week were 3.4 (there were
> only two days with any visible sunspots) which was down from 9.7 in
> the previous week.
> 
> Average daily solar flux declined only slightly from 70.7 to 70.4.
> 
> Average planetary A index decreased from 8 to 4.1, while average
> mid-latitude A index went from 6.4 to 3.
> 
> Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 70 on December 21-23,
> 72 on December 24, 70 on December 25-27, 72 on December 28 through
> January 4, 70 on January 5-16, 72 on January 17-31, and 70 on
> February 1-3.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 5 on December 21-23, then 8,
> 5 and 5 again on December 24-26, then 8 on December 27-28, then 12,
> 10 and 8 on December 29-31, 5 on January 1-2, then 10, 12, 10, 10
> and 8 on January 3-7, 5 on January 8-12, 8 on January 13, 5 on
> January 14-23, then 8, 12, 10 and 8 on January 24-27, 5 on January
> 28-29, then 10, 12, 10, 10 and 8 on January 30 through February 3.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 21 to January
> 16, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be:
> Quiet on December 23, 25-27, January 10-12
> Quiet to unsettled on December 21-22, 24, January 9, 13
> Quiet to active on December 28, January 1-2
> Unsettled to active on December 29, (31), January (3-5,) 6-8, 14
> Active to disturbed on December (30,) January (15-16)
> 
> "Solar wind will intensify on November 30 and on December (24-27,)
> 28-31, January 1, (3-4,) 5-7, (8, 14,) 15-16
> 
> "Remark: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity
> enhancement."
> 
> Here is an exchange between W8BYA and N0JK about their activity
> during the Geminid meteor shower, which peaked on December 14:
> 
> "Hi Jon, so excited just had to share with you. After over 6-7 years
> of trying KE7NR/P in DM54ah and myself completed on 2m MS using
> MSK144 several days before the Geminid peak date. I had a good
> feeling when right off the bat I received this +20 dB decode from
> him:
> 
> "150700  20 20.2 1527 &  W8BYA KE7NR DM54
> 
> "Anyway, this was very late AM and represents my best 2m non-EME DX
> at 1425 miles and non-EME grid #373.
> 
> "Gedas, W8BYA
> 
> "I ended up with 9 Geminids m/s Qs on 6 meters. All MSK144. Best DX
> probably W3CP EM74. Some fairly short distance M/S Qs such as KV5W
> EM22 and K0TPP EM48. Saw decodes on K0WDO EM17, N0LWF EN10, and
> several on KA9CFD EN40 - which are fairly close in and would imply
> high MUF. I was on early morning Dec. 14.
> 
> "100 w, 3 el Yagi.
> 
> "Jon N0JK"
> 
> The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, the Space Weather Woman:
> 
> https://youtu.be/wt-T-mbt5Ag
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net .
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 13 through 19, 2018 were 0, 12, 12, 0,
> 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 3.4. 10.7 cm flux was 70.2, 70.8, 71.2,
> 69.8, 70.1, 70.4, and 70.2, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary
> A indices were 3, 3, 2, 2, 6, 7, and 6, with a mean of 4.1.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 1, 1, 5, 5, and 4, with
> a mean of 3.
> NNNN
> /EX