[SFDXA] ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

[William Marx]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042
> ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP42
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42  ARLP042
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  October 14, 2016
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP042
> ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> At 0356 UTC on October 13, the Australian Space Forecast Centre
> issued this geomagnetic warning:
> 
> "Increased solar wind speed due to coronal hole effects expected for
> 14-15 Oct. Active conditions forecast with possible Minor Storm
> periods.
> 
> "GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
> 14 Oct:  Active to Minor Storm
> 15 Oct:  Active"
> 
> Solar flux and sunspot numbers rose over the past week, while
> geomagnetic indicators were down.
> 
> Average daily sunspot numbers for October 6-12 rose 34.3 points to
> 55, and average daily solar flux rose 15.2 points to 101.9,
> referenced to the previous seven days.
> 
> Average planetary A index declined from 21.4 to 6.6, and
> mid-latitude A index from 15.1 to 5.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 95 on October 14, 90 on October 15-21, 85 on
> October 22-26, 80 on October 27-29, 90 and 95 on October 30-31, 100
> on November 1-2, 105 on November 3-7, 110 on November 8-9, 105 and
> 100 on November 10-11, 95 on November 12-14, 90 on November 15-17,
> and 85 on November 18-22
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 60 and 25 on October 14-15, 15 on
> October 16-17, 10 on October 18-20, 5 on October 21-22, 20 on
> October 23, 35 on October 24-26, 20 on October 27, 15 on October
> 28-30, 25 on October 31, 12 on November 1, 5 on November 2-6, 8 on
> November 7-8, then 5, 12 and 15 on November 9-11, then 12, 20 and 8
> on November 12-14, 5 on November 15-18, 20 on November 19 and 30 on
> November 20-22.
> 
> Here is the weekly geomagnetic forecast from OK1HH.
> 
> "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 14 - November
> 10, 2016
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be:
> Quiet on October 20, November 8-9,
> Mostly quiet on October 19,
> Quiet to unsettled on October 21, November 2-7
> Quiet to active on October 14-(16), 18, 22, 26-28, November 10
> Active to disturbed on October 17, 23-25, 29-30, November 1
> 
> "Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on
> October 14-(16), 22-24, November 6-10
> 
> "Remark: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity
> enhancement."
> 
> Interesting article about interaction between various solar activity
> from New Jersey Institute of Technology:  http://bit.ly/2dSlDn3
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK wrote early this morning:
> 
> "A geomagnetic storm was in progress the evening of Oct. 13 (Oct. 14
> UTC). During the storm sporadic-E appeared on 6 meters across the
> desert southwest states.
> 
> "Here in Kansas -- KS7S DM41 was strong on 50.140 MHz at 0115z Oct
> 14. N0LL EM09 heard the XE2HWB DL44 beacon loud at same time.
> Sporadic-E is rare in October, perhaps related to the geomagnetic
> activity?"
> 
> No doubt! The planetary A index yesterday (Thursday, October 13) was
> 43. Predicted planetary A index for today, October 14 is 60! More
> excitement anticipated.
> 
> I had an email exchange over the past week with Bil Paul, KD6JUI of
> Dixon, California about operating from his kayak, which is described
> in his article "A Multi-band Antenna for Kayaks and Boats" in the
> November 2016 issue of QST. Here is what Bil wrote.
> 
> "I saw the solar flux was predicted to be 99 yesterday (Oct. 6) so
> went out in my kayak with the kayak antenna I devised (in Nov. QST)
> and had some stateside QSOs (longest distance: Maine) -- but all
> those were obtained by answered others' CQs. Then I called a CQ on
> my own on 17m SSB running 10 watts and JH1OCC answered. He was
> having no trouble copying me but with my very modest antenna I had
> trouble copying him. I was sitting in saline river water on the edge
> of the Sacramento River but between him and me was only land. So I
> was quite surprised to snag him. There were other foreign stations
> coming in on 17m but I never try to compete in pileups!"
> 
> By the way, even though the predicted solar flux for October 6 was
> 99, the actual value rose to 101.5 on that day, and the increase
> continued over following days til it reached 104.5 on October 9.
> Solar flux is expected to rise in a similar manner on November 1-11,
> reaching a peak of 110 on November 8-9.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for October 6 through 12 were 55, 50, 62, 58, 64,
> 56, and 40, with a mean of 55. 10.7 cm flux was 101.5, 104.2, 104.3,
> 104.5, 102, 99.2, and 97.6, with a mean of 101.9. Estimated
> planetary A indices were 6, 6, 8, 5, 11, 4, and 6, with a mean of
> 6.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 5, 7, 4, 7, 3, and 5,
> with a mean of 5.
> NNNN
> /EX