[SFDXA] ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

[William Marx]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP022
> ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP22
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22  ARLP022
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  May 27, 2016
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP022
> ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Solar indices pulled back this week, when average sunspot number was
> 25.3 for the May 19 to 25 period, down 38.8 points from the previous
> week's average of 64.1.
> 
> Likewise, average daily solar flux over the same period was 97, down
> 3.4 points from the previous week's average of 100.4.
> 
> Planetary A index average was 7.1, down 2.8 points from 9.9, and
> average daily mid-latitude A index was 7, down 3.9 points from 10.9.
> 
> We should continue to see this overall decline in solar activity for
> at least the next four years.  Compared to past cycles, this one is
> considerably weaker. But I wouldn't worry much about some reports in
> the media suggesting we face several future solar cycles that would
> be very weak.  Although astrophysicists know much more about the sun
> than in the past, and have far better tools and resources for
> monitoring day-to-day activity, the record so far shows that long
> range forecasts have varied all over the place, and have not proved
> consistent or true.
> 
> Remember Mausumi Dikpati?  She was the scientist who predicted that
> the current solar cycle (24) would be huge and record breaking, at
> least compared to the previous four solar cycles.  It did not turn
> out the way we hoped.  We might consider the same for more
> pessimistic forecasts in popular news media.
> 
> Some links concerning Dikpatu and her forecast:
> 
> http://www.hao.ucar.edu/Public/about/Staff/dikpati/
> 
> http://www.hao.ucar.edu/Public/about/Staff/dikpati/CV.html
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausumi_Dikpati
> 
> The latest forecast from NOAA/USAF shows solar flux at 90 and 85 on
> May 27 and 28, 90 on May 29 and 30, 85 on May 31 to June 2, 90 on
> June 3 to 7, 95 on June 8, 100 on June 9 and 10, 95 on June 11 and
> 12, 90 on June 13 to 16, 85 on June 17 to 20, 90 on June 21 to 25
> (except 85 on June 23), 95 on June 26 to 30 and 90 on July 1 to 4.
> 
> The latest prediction for planetary A index is 12, 8, 14, 20 and 12
> on May 27 to 31, then 5, 8, 15, 35, 30 and 15 on June 1 to 6, 5 on
> June 7 to 10, 12 on June 11 to 13, 8 on June 14 and 15, then 5, 15,
> 12, and 10 on June 16 to 19, 5 on June 20 and 21, then 12, 10, 8, 5,
> 15, 12 and 8 on June 22 to 28, 15 on June 29 and 30, then 35, 30 and
> 15 on July 1 to 3, and 5 on July 4 to 7.
> 
> Petr Kolman, OK1MGW from the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent
> us his geomagnetic forecast a day early this week.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 27 to June 22, 2016
> 
> Geomagnetic field will be: Quiet on June 19 and 20 Mostly quiet on
> May 31, June 7 and 8, 21 Quiet to unsettled on May 27, 30, June 9
> and 10, 14 to 16, 18, 22 Quiet to active on May 28 and 29, June 1 to
> 3, 6, 11 to 13, 17 Active to disturbed on (May 28 and 29), June 4
> and 5
> 
> Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected on May 28
> and 29, June 1 to 6, 10 to 13, 17 and 18
> 
> Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
> 
> Here are a couple of articles about a giant sunspot last week and
> about changes in Earth's magnetic field:
> 
> http://www.siue.edu/news/2016/05/Sunspot.shtml
> 
> http://bit.ly/1WZI86g
> 
> N8II sent this report on Wednesday, May 25:
> 
> "There was a good Asian opening on 20 CW this AM, heard XV9NPS about
> S5, worked BX2AK S 2-5 and worked a JA who was S8 all well past the
> usual peak of propagation around 1300Z today."
> 
> Douglas Moore sent this article from Science Daily about researchers
> in the Antarctic discovering new facets of space weather:
> 
> https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/05/160520124427.htm
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for May 19 through 25 were 38, 43, 17, 15, 13, 24,
> and 27, with a mean of 25.3. 10.7 cm flux was 98.8, 99.5, 97.8,
> 97.4, 97.4, 94.3, and 93.6, with a mean of 97. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 8, 6, 15, 7, 5, 6, and 3, with a mean of 7.1. Estimated
> mid-latitude A indices were 8, 6, 16, 5, 4, 6, and 4 with a mean of
> 7.
> NNNN
> /EX