[SFDXA] ARLP031 Propagation de K7RA

[William Marx]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP031
> ARLP031 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP31
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 31  ARLP031
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  July 29, 2016
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP031
> ARLP031 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Reporting this week from the Hill Country of West Texas, Kerrville,
> northwest of San Antonio. Happy to report that the food is
> delicious, the locals very friendly and hospitable, and gas costs
> only two bucks a gallon. Speed limit on the highways is 75 MPH, and
> it seems almost like the 1970s again.
> 
> We have fallen back to a period of 0 sunspots, so far only lasting
> three days. This was after a brief uptick in solar activity from
> July 15-21. But looking at the STEREO site at
> http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ we can see that on the opposite side of
> the Sun there are still sunspots, which should drift back into view
> as our Sun rotates relative to Earth in a couple of weeks.
> 
> After those three blank days, the sunspot number rose to 13 on July
> 28.
> 
> Average daily sunspot number declined from 58.1 to 19.3 (comparing
> the July 21-27 period to the previous seven days), and average daily
> solar flux from 103.6 to 82.5. Average daily planetary A index went
> from 10.6 to 8.7, while the mid-latitude A index declined from 11.1
> to 8.9.
> 
> Predicted solar flux from USAF and NOAA space weather observers is
> 70 on July 29 to August 3, 75 on August 4, 80 and 95 on August 5-6,
> 105 on August 7-16, then 100, 90, 85 and 80 on August 17-20, then 75
> on August 21-22, and 70 on August 23-31. Solar flux the goes to 105
> on September 3-11.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on July 29-30, 5 on July 31
> to August 2, 20 on August 3-4, 15 on August 5, 10 on August 6-7,
> then 20, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on August 8-12, 5 on August 13-14, then 8,
> 12 and 5 on August 15-17, 8 on August 18-19, then 5, 8, 15, 12, 8,
> 20, 12 and 8 on August 20-27 and 5 on August 28-29, 20 on August
> 30-31, 15 on September 1 and 10 on September 2-3, then 20, 8, 12, 10
> and 8 on September 4-8.
> 
> At 0537 UTC on July 28, 2016 the Australian Space Forecast Centre
> issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:
> 
> "Elevated geomagnetic activity possible due to the expected arrival
> of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole on 28 July.
> 
> "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
> SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 28-29 JULY 2016
> 
> "GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 28 Jul:  Unsettled to Active,
> possible Minor Storm periods 29 Jul:  Quiet to Unsettled, possible
> Active periods"
> 
> Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent us
> this forecast:
> 
> "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 29-August 24, 2016,
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be:
> Quiet on August 23-24
> Mostly quiet on August 1-2, 12-14, 17-18, 22
> Quiet to unsettled on July 31, August 5-7, 10-11, 19
> Quiet to active on July 29-30, August 3-4, 8-9, 15-16, 20-21
> Active to disturbed on August (3-4)
> 
> "Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected: July
> 29-30, August 2-4, 7-9, 20-21.
> 
> "Parenthesis (August 3-4) means lower probability of activity
> enhancement.
> 
> "Petr Kolman, OK1MGW (OK1HH and OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since
> 1978)"
> 
> Spaceweather.com reported: "Earth is entering the outskirts of a
> broad stream of debris from Comet Swift-Tuttle, source of the annual
> Perseid meteor shower. Forecasters don't expect the shower to peak
> until August 11-13, but already NASA cameras are detecting Perseid
> fireballs streaking across the night sky as the shower slowly
> intensifies." Meteor trails can enhance propagation.
> 
> David Moore reported, "Sun blasts out 2016's strongest solar flare."
> It can be see at, https://shar.es/1ZqGRJ
> 
> Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI sent this from Costa Rica:
> 
> "Here is an article that some of your readers might find interesting
> about how scientists are discovering that the details of how the
> solar wind powers auroras are a bit different than had been thought.
> New satellite data might lead to improved auroral forecasts:
> 
> "http://phys.org/news/2016-07-magnetosphere-large-intake-solar-energy.html
> 
> "Been awhile since I've sent in a report on propagation from here in
> the single-digit latitudes, so here goes.
> 
> "On 6 meters, there's only been two really good openings into the
> States of any consequence, one on the 14th of June, another on the
> 12th of July, and so far, no openings at all into the South Pacific
> or Europe, which is strange, because they're normally common here.
> So far, I have yet to hear Remi in New Caledonia, and I usually hear
> him several times per week.
> 
> "The opening on the 12th into the States was a really spectacular
> one; I got 76 QSOs in the log, easily the best opening since I've
> been down here in Costa Rica, mostly working the East Coast, but
> occasionally into the Midwest, as far west as Denver. Worked my
> first VEs on 6 from here, and got two of them, a half hour apart.
> 
> "Everybody's really been singing the blues around here about the
> lack of openings otherwise, though. Even the nightly TEP openings
> into South America that are a usual feature of 6 meters this time of
> year here, have simply not been happening at all. I've only heard
> those familiar watery signals twice so far this year, and even then
> the signals weren't particularly strong, nor were they to any
> stations I haven't already worked many times.
> 
> "The frequent, almost daily Es openings into Venezuela and French
> Guiana we enjoyed last year are only a memory so far this year. If
> low-latitude sporadic-E is supposed to be correlated with low solar
> activity, you couldn't have proved it by me.
> 
> "The HF bands are also suffering from the lack of solar activity.
> The higher bands, 20m-10m have seen noticeably weaker signals, with
> propagation entirely absent on 10m for days at a time, and only a
> very few weak signals on 15.
> 
> "That's ominous, because even during the last solar minimum, there
> would be a decent, if brief opening on 15m most days, and afternoon
> TEP on 10m into South America was a daily occurrence. But it is not
> happening at all so far this year. Most of my HF activity has been
> on 20m just because there hasn't been any other choice. Even 17m
> hasn't been an option.
> 
> "The low bands, too, are affected down here by all this. My local
> gringo friends and I usually have an early morning coffee klatch on
> 75m between 5 and 6 AM, and until recently, the signals, as soon as
> we would get on, were strong and stable as one would normally expect
> on that band.
> 
> "But lately, the band has been shortening up for local paths quite a
> bit later than it ever has in the past - often not until an hour or
> so after sunrise. At times, the propagation on 75 has been so long
> that Stateside QRM has been stronger than our local Central American
> stations. Jay, HP3AK, reports that this has been great for his
> morning gray-line 75m DXing, especially into VK/ZL, but it has
> shortened up our morning coffee klatch by a half hour or more,
> because we just can't make ourselves heard locally early.
> 
> "This strange propagation seems to be an issue on 40m as well, which
> often isn't opening up for regional short skip until as late as 9 or
> even 10 in the morning. It's really bizarre - never seen anything
> quite like it, even during the last solar minimum. In the past, 40m
> here has always been open as soon as the sun was up.
> 
> "I've noticed that these really late openings on the low bands seem
> to be correlated with really low 304 angstrom UV index numbers. I'm
> noticing that the current SOHO 304a number is very close to the
> lowest I've ever seen it (a few weeks ago, it was the lowest), even
> during the last solar minimum. I'm wondering if that's real or if
> it's degradation of the sensor on the satellite. Judging from how
> the bands have been behaving, it must be real."
> 
> I've been intending to run this for weeks, but it keeps falling off
> the agenda. Notice how there are progressively fewer sunspots, as
> the record transitions from April 2014 to April 2016 and the months
> beyond:
> 
> http://www.solarham.net/regions/april2014.htm
> 
> http://www.solarham.net/regions/april2016.htm
> 
> http://www.solarham.net/regions/may2016.htm
> 
> http://www.solarham.net/regions/june2016.htm
> 
> http://www.solarham.net/regions/july2016.htm
> 
> And finally, I'm unsure who sent this (David Moore?) but one reason
> I found it interesting is personally I cannot imagine being shut
> inside a capsule and hurtled through some vast void.
> 
> http://spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=49197
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for July 21 through 27 were 49, 36, 34, 16, 0, 0,
> and 0, with a mean of 19.3. 10.7 cm flux was 100.1, 90.4, 86.2,
> 82.2, 73.6, 73.5, and 71.6, with a mean of 82.5. Estimated planetary
> A indices were 5, 8, 8, 14, 18, 5, and 3, with a mean of 8.7.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 8, 10, 12, 15, 7, and 4
> with a mean of 8.9.
> NNNN
> /EX