[SFDXA] ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Jul 8 18:16:07 EDT 2016

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028
> ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP28
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28  ARLP028
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  July 8, 2016
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP028
> ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> The recent zero-sunspot period (June 23 through July 4) ended with
> the appearance of a single sunspot group (2560) on Tuesday, July 5.
> Sunspot numbers were 23, 11 and 25 respectively on July 5-7. See
> http://www.solarham.net/regions/2560.htm for images of this region.
> 
> Compared to the previous week, average daily sunspot number rose
> from 0 to 4.9. Average daily solar flux declined from 75.6 to 73.1.
> Average planetary A index dropped from 9 to 6.7 and average
> mid-latitude A index declined from 9.1 to 8.3.
> 
> Predicted solar flux shows a rising trend for the next few days,
> with flux values from USAF/NOAA at 84 and 85 on July 8-9, 86 on July
> 10-14, 80 on July 15, 74 on July 16, 72 on July 17-30, 74 on July 31
> through August 12, and 72 on August 13 and beyond.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 15, 10, 8 and 15 on July 8-11, then
> 12, 8, 5 and 8 July 12-15, 5 on July 16-18, then 15, 12, 10, 8, and
> 10 on July 19-23, 5 on July 24-27, then 8 and 5 on July 28-29, 10 on
> July 30-31, 5 on August 1-3, then 12, 10, 8 and 18 on August 4-7,
> then 12, 8, 10 and 8 on August 8-11, and 5 on August 12-14.
> 
> A glance at the STEREO web site at http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ can
> offer clues about upcoming activity about to rotate into view from
> the other (hidden) side of our Sun. I can see coming over the 90
> degree eastern horizon (which counter-intuitively is on the left
> side of the image) are some magnetically complex regions, which
> could offer more sunspot activity. These are white areas in the
> image, and I am seeing this at 0800 UTC on July 7, and at 0700 UTC
> on July 8 I see it has advanced well over the horizon, and has been
> numbered sunspot group 2562. The group 2560 is gone, and 2561 is now
> about to transit over the western side.
> 
> The STEREO images are updated frequently (as I recall, every few
> minutes) so are a good source of real time information. At 0 degrees
> longitude is the area directly facing Earth, and therefore the most
> geo-effective. The area directly facing us takes about 4 weeks
> (about 27.5 days) to transit all the way around the Sun and again
> reaches the position it is in now.
> 
> At 2352 UTC on July 6, 2016 the Space Weather Services in Australia
> issued a geomagnetic warning:
> 
> "The effect of a co-rotating interaction region and a high speed
> solar wind stream may raise geomagnetic activity to minor storm
> levels on 7 and 8 July."
> 
> For July 7 they predict: "Quiet to active with minor storm periods
> possible." For July 8: "Unsettled to minor storm."
> 
> Sure enough, the planetary A index on July 7 was 23, up from 5 on
> July 6. Solar flux rose from 77.1 on July 6 to 83.3 the next day.
> 
> F.K. Janda, OK1HH sends us his geomagnetic outlook:
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 8-August 3, 2016.
> 
> Geomagnetic field will be:
> Quiet on July 16-17, 22, 26, August 2
> Mostly quiet on July 10, 14-15, 24-25, 31, August 1
> Quiet to unsettled on July 9, 12-13, 21, 27-28
> Quiet to active on July 8, 18-20, 23, 29-30, August 3
> Active to disturbed on July 11
> 
> Increased solar wind from coronal holes is expected on July 8, (10,)
> 16, 28, and 30-31.
> 
> - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. 
> - Reliability of predictions is slightly reduced.
> 
> Here is a Wikipedia entry concerning VE3CC, who developed the first
> system to measure 2.8 GHz (10.7 cm) noise from the Sun, and figured
> out that this could be used as a proxy for sunspot measurement. A
> big advantage was the ability to measure solar activity when visual
> observations of the Sun were not practical, such as when the sky is
> overcast:
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Covington
> 
> I found the reference to Covington here:
> 
> http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=1510#comment-330947
> 
> And found that link from here:
> 
> http://hmi.stanford.edu/hminuggets/?p=477
> 
> The last time this NASA solar cycle prediction was updated was
> January 12, 2016, but in this July 6 version I find no difference:
> 
> http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
> 
> This inquiry is from a reader, WA6QBU in Santa Rose, California:
> 
> "Just finished reading your Propagation article and found it very
> interesting. I too have been wondering what is going on. I am a
> casual DXer with simple equipment: FTDX1200/FL2100b/40 meter
> horizontal loop fed with ladder line up about 30 feet.  Over this
> sunspot cycle I've worked 1344 DX stations to date and in the past
> two weeks 16 stations in both Europe and the South Pacific.  Mostly
> this was with no sunspots and BTW, sometimes stations were coming in
> from both directions at the same time.  I'm near San Francisco
> (100km north) and near the coast.  These are really the strangest
> conditions I've seen.  Any comments, especially about the two
> directions at the same time.  Oh, and this is always after dark here
> up to midnight."
> 
> Unsure how to answer this, but I may assume that this is all on 40
> meters (although his page at https://www.qrz.com/db/WA6QBU/ says he
> tunes this loop over 80-10 meters and works the world with 100
> watts).
> 
> I am not sure that hearing stations from opposite directions
> (especially since his antenna is not directional) is unusual, but of
> course only WA6QBU is familiar with normal propagation from his QTH.
> 
> I also do not know how far away these stations are, but when I run
> an analysis on W6ELprop using his QTH as the midpoint between my QTH
> in Washington state and Los Angeles, I can see multiple examples of
> both L.A. and Seattle received at the same time in Northern
> California.
> 
> But what is encouraging is WA6QBU is happy making lots of contacts
> when there are no sunspots. In fact, if you use any propagation
> prediction software and enter 0 for the sunspot number, you will
> discover many scenarios in which there is viable propagation.
> 
> Here is a report on Field Day in Puerto Rico, submitted by Angel
> Santana-Diaz, WP3GW:
> 
> "Field Day was without sunspots but we had a great network of
> stations during the weekend. More than 1,000 stations worked, just
> missed Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and Hawaii. Fifteen meters was king
> during the day."
> 
> He also mentioned in a later email that 20 and 40 meters were good
> during the evening.
> 
> And finally, this news article from Oregon which seems to get it
> right concerning sunspots (or lack of them) and future climate
> effects.
> 
> http://koin.com/2016/07/06/there-arent-any-sunspots-on-the-sun-right-now/
> 
> I see so many articles in the media concerning sunspots which
> immediately jump to the Maunder Minimum and ice age, even though a
> cooler climate effect would be heavily offset by massive amounts of
> carbon loaded into the atmosphere over the past couple of centuries.
> That's what climatologists have been telling us for the past few
> decades.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for June 30 through July 6 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 23,
> and 11, with a mean of 4.9. 10.7 cm flux was 72.9, 72, 70.9, 72.3,
> 73.8, 72.4, and 77.1, with a mean of 73.1. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 6, 7, 9, 9, 7, 4, and 5, with a mean of 6.7. Estimated
> mid-latitude A indices were 7, 9, 11, 9, 9, 6, and 7 with a mean of
> 8.3.
> NNNN
> /EX