[SFDXA] ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill Marx]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002
> ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP02
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2  ARLP002
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  January 8, 2016
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP002
> ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Solar indices were down over the past reporting week (December 31,
> 2015 through January 6, 2016) with average daily sunspot numbers
> down from 49.6 to 41 and average daily solar flux down from 122.3 to
> 98.2.
> 
> Average daily planetary A index declined from 21.7 to 16.6 and
> average mid-latitude A index from 12.6 to 10.6.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 105 on January 8-10, 100 on January 11-12,
> 95 on January 13-14, then 105, 110 and 115 on January 15-17, 120 on
> January 18-21, then 115, 110, 105 and 110 on January 22-25, 115 on
> January 26-27, 110 on January 28, and 105 on January 29 through
> February 3. Solar flux then peaks for the near terms at 115 on
> February 5-6 and again at 120 on February 14-17.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 8 on January 8, 5 on January 9-11, 12
> on January 12, 8 on January 13, 5 on January 14-20, then 8, 15, 12
> and 8 on January 21-24, 5 on January 25-30, 12 on January 31, 8 on
> February 1, 20 on February 2-3, 12 on February 4, 8 on February 5
> and 5 on February 6-16.
> 
> Petr Kolman, OK1MGW predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to
> unsettled on January 8-9, active to disturbed on January 10, quiet
> to active January 11, quiet to unsettled January 12-14, mostly quiet
> January 15-17, quiet January 18-19, quiet to unsettled January
> 20-22, mostly quiet January 23, quiet on January 24-26, quiet to
> active January 27-28, quiet to unsettled January 29-30, mostly quiet
> January 31, quiet to active February 1-2, and quiet to unsettled
> February 3.
> 
> Petr is less certain about his forecast over the period January
> 15-19.
> 
> He predicts increased solar wind over January 10-11 and 27-28.
> 
> At 2302 UTC on January 4, Australia's Space Weather Services issued
> a geomagnetic warning:
> 
> "Coronal hole effects are likely to result in periods of active
> geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region, with minor storm
> levels at higher latitudes.
> 
> "Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high
> speed wind stream from 06-07 January 2016."
> 
> You can subscribe to their various alerts at
> http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/
> 
> Sure enough, as predicted there was increased geomagnetic activity
> on January 6-7. The mid-latitude A index on those dates was 12 and
> 11, the planetary A index was 17 and 14 and the College A index
> (Fairbanks, Alaska) values were 27 and 22.
> 
> Popular Science this week has a basic article about sunspots:
> 
> http://www.popsci.com/what-is-sunspot
> 
> There was a geomagnetic storm last week, just in time for New Year's
> and Straight Key Night:
> 
> http://bit.ly/1VPrMei
> 
> Participants in Straight Key Night noted the poor propagation
> overnight, but said that during New Year's Day conditions improved.
> 
> See http://www.arrl.org/contests/soapbox and select 2016 ARRL
> Straight Key Night in the drop-down.
> 
> WB2AWQ noted that he used a keyboard, which was actually a piece of
> wood with five telegraph keys attached.
> 
> Don't miss comments from W0AAA about past SKNs as well as his
> QRZ.com page.
> 
> As usual for SKN, many stations used various vintage gear and keys.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar
> flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
> http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .
> 
> Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore
> the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress
> the download.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 31 through January 6 were 18, 40, 52,
> 50, 60, 29, and 38, with a mean of 41. 10.7 cm flux was 96.2, 98.4,
> 100, 101.9, 95.3, 95.2, and 100.2, with a mean of 98.2. Estimated
> planetary A indices were 43, 27, 10, 7, 5, 7, and 17, with a mean of
> 16.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 25, 17, 6, 5, 4, 5, and
> 12, with a mean of 10.6.
> NNNN
> /EX