[SFDXA] ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

Mon Jan 4 15:07:52 EST 2016

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP001
> ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP01
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1  ARLP001
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  January 4, 2016
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP001
> ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Happy New Year! This is the first time the propagation bulletin was
> produced and distributed on New Year's Day. Thanks to Rick
> Lindquist, WW1ME for putting in the extra time and effort.
> 
> Over the past week, average daily sunspot numbers were up, but
> average daily solar flux values were down, compared to the previous
> seven days.
> 
> Average daily sunspot numbers rose 8.1 points to 57.7, and average
> daily solar flux values were down 12.4 points to 109.9. Average
> planetary A index declined from 21.7 to 8.9 and average mid-latitude
> A index went from 12.6 to 5.9.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 95 on January 1, 100 on January 2-7, 105 on
> January 8, 110 on January 9-12, 105 on January 13-14, 110 on January
> 15, 115 on January 16-20, 110 on January 21-26, and 115 on January
> 27-29.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 30 on January 1, 18 on January 2-3,
> 12 and 8 on January 4-5, 20 on January 6-7, then 12, 10, 20, 18 and
> 10 on January 8-12, 5 on January 13-20, then 10, 15, 10 and 12 on
> January 21-24, 10 on January 25-26, then 8, 15, 25, 18 and 12 on
> January 27-31.
> 
> F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sees
> active to disturbed geomagnetic conditions on January 1-2, quiet to
> unsettled January 3-4, mostly quiet January 5, quiet to active
> January 6, mostly quiet January 7, quiet on January 8, quiet to
> unsettled January 9, active to disturbed January 10, quiet to active
> January 11, quiet January 12, quiet to unsettled January 13, mostly
> quiet January 14, quiet to unsettled January 15, quiet to active
> January 16, mostly quiet January 17-18, quiet to unsettled January
> 19-20, mostly quiet January 21, quiet to active January 22, mostly
> quiet January 23, quiet January 24-25, mostly quiet January 26 and
> quiet to active January 27.
> 
> OK1HH believes there will be increased solar wind on January 3-7,
> January 20-25, January 30 through February 4 and February 19-21.
> 
> At the beginning of the New Year, let's look at some of the numbers
> we follow.
> 
> Average daily sunspot numbers during 2015 were the lowest since
> 2010.
> 
> Average daily sunspot numbers for each year from 2003-2015 were
> 109.2, 68.6, 48.9, 26.1, 12.8, 4.7, 5.1, 25.5, 80.1, 82.3, 97.1,
> 121.2, and 70.1 in 2015.
> 
> We track a 3-month moving average of sunspot numbers, and for this
> year, centered on January through November (November's average runs
> from October 1, 2015 through December 31, 2015) the numbers were
> 98.2, 78.1, 68.2, 72.4, 77.7, 76.3, 69.1, 67.5, 64.5, 64.6, and
> 58.5.
> 
> Rich Zwirko, K1HTV of Amissville, Virginia sent a report on his
> 6-meter activity.
> 
> "After finishing a nice Christmas dinner I received a telephone call
> from Marty, K2PLF in Maryland advising me of a 6 meter opening from
> New Zealand to the Mid-Atlantic area. At 0207 UTC I heard and worked
> ZL3RC (RE66) on SSB on 50120 KHz.  Two minutes later ZL3AAU (RE66)
> on 50110, also on SSB, was in the K1HTV log. At 0223 UTC Rod, ZL3NW
> (RE66) became the 3rd New Zealand station worked, this time on CW on
> 50100 KHz. Rod's signal was in for almost an hour into my FM18ap
> Virginia QTH, being last heard at 0319 UTC. Also worked were KP3W
> (FK68) at 0231 UTC and XE2X (EL06), both on CW. The opening was most
> likely TEP with a single hop E-skip assist to the northeast. While
> the band was open to New Zealand, many strong W5 stations were being
> heard here. The SFI was 133 with the A Index at 9 and K Index at 2.
> 
> "Although not a new one on 6 meters for me, the three ZLs were a
> nice Christmas surprise and new DXCC band countries for area 6 meter
> DXers K2PLF, K3SX and W3LPL.
> 
> "What will the Magic Band bring next? I wouldn't be surprised to see
> a VK station's signal make it into the States in the next few
> weeks."
> 
> I noticed on Rich's QRZ.com page he says he runs 100 watts or less
> on HF, and has all DXCC entities confirmed except North Korea. I
> just finished reading a fascinating book about "The Hermit Kingdom"
> which I highly recommend: "A Kim Jong-Il production: the
> extraordinary true story of a kidnapped filmmaker, his star actress,
> and a young dictator's rise to power" by Paul Fischer.
> 
> I couldn't put it down.
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK sent a report from KH6 using his phone:
> 
> "Usually December is a slow month on 6 meters from Hawaii, but the
> New Year's Eve geo-mag storm created some enhanced conditions. I
> heard the JA6YBR/B on 50.017 MHZ for about 30 minutes 579 at 2345
> UTC December 31 from Oahu. No live stations heard. Suspect direct
> F2.  Happy New Year! - Jon N0JK."
> 
> And there is this story:
> http://www.sciencerecorder.com/news/2015/12/31/sun-blasts-trigger-new-years-eve-storm/
> .
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar
> flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
> http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .
> 
> Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore
> the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress
> the download.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 24 through 30 were 51, 71, 63, 67, 64,
> 54, and 34, with a mean of 49.6. 10.7 cm flux was 132.7, 126.4,
> 117.4, 110.3, 112.1, 105.4, and 101.5, with a mean of 122.3.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 9, 15, 11, 5, 6, and 4, with
> a mean of 21.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 6, 11, 7,
> 3, 4, and 2, with a mean of 12.6.
> NNNN
> /EX