[SFDXA] ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Dec 23 18:51:15 EST 2016

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
> ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP52
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52  ARLP052
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  December 23, 2016
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP052
> ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Over the past reporting week (December 15-21) solar activity was
> little changed from the previous seven days, although on two days
> (December 16-17) there were no sunspots. Average daily sunspot
> numbers declined two points from 13 to 11, and average daily solar
> flux bumped up one point to 73.2.
> 
> Average planetary A index changed from 13.3 to 7.9, and average
> mid-latitude A index from 9 to 5.7.
> 
> The outlook for the next month shows daily solar flux in a big
> downward adjustment for the next week, compared to the forecast in
> yesterday's ARRL Letter. The average predicted solar flux Wednesday
> on December 23-28 was 84.2, but in Thursday's forecast it dropped
> suddenly to 62.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 73 on December 23-24, 72 on December 25-29,
> 77 on December 30-31, 79 on January 1-3, 77 on January 4-5, 75 on
> January 6-10, 77 on January 11-12, 75 on January 13-14, 73 on
> January 15-17, 75 on January 18-23, 77 on January 24-27, 79 on
> January 28-30 and 77 on January 31 and February 1.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 12 on December 23-24, 8 on December
> 25, 5 on December 26 through January 1, then 8, 10, 20, 22, 16, 14
> and 6 on January 2-8, 5 on January 9-13, 10 on January 14, 15 on
> January 15-16, 25 and 28 on January 17-18, 12 on January 19-20, 8 on
> January 21, and 5 on January 22-28.
> 
> From Australia's Space Weather Services:
> 
> "Subj: SWS Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning 16/57
> Issued At 0002 UTC/22 December 2016
> By the Australian Space Forecast Centre.
> 
> "The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole is
> expected to keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced from 22 to 24
> December. Minor storms may be observed throughout this period with
> the possibility of some major storm periods on 22 and 23 December.
> 
> "INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
> SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 22-24 DECEMBER 2016
> 
> "GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
> 22 Dec:  Active to minor storm, some major storm periods possible
> 23 Dec:  Active to minor storm, isolated major storm periods possible
> 24 Dec:  Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods possible"
> 
> We also have the weekly geomagnetic prediction for December 23 to
> January 18 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest
> Group.
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be:
> Quiet on December 30-31, January 1, 8-11
> Mostly quiet on December 27-28, January 2, 12, 15-16
> Quiet to unsettled on January 2-3, 14, 29
> Quiet to active on December 23-26, January 4, 6-7, 13, 17
> Active to disturbed on January 5, 18
> 
> "Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected on December
> 23-25, January 3-8, 17-18."
> 
> W4KUT's comments on Cycle 19 in last week's Propagation Forecast
> Bulletin ARLP051 drew quite a response.
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:
> 
> "Interesting comments from W4KUT regarding Solar Cycle 19.
> 
> "I have heard from 6M ops who were active during Cycle 19 of daily
> North America coast to coast F2 contacts on 6M with just a few watts
> on AM and indoor dipoles during the Fall and Winter months. With the
> higher F2 MUF, 6 meter contacts also occurred from the Midwest to
> New England and California via F2.
> 
> "International DX was limited due to many countries, particularly in
> Region 1, not having a 50 MHz allocation. The IGY, however, gave
> special permission to a few operations from Region 1, so a number of
> stations completed WAC on 50 MHz during Solar Cycle 19.
> 
> "This was a comment regarding Cycle 19 in 1957 from the UKSMG
> regarding 6 meters from Japan.
> 
> "During the peak of Cycle 19, the fall DX season of 1957, North
> America was coming in every day to Japan (on 50 MHz). At the same
> time, VE (Canada), KL7 (Alaska), and KH6 (Hawaii) signals were also
> heard every day. On October 9, 1958 - JA3CE and CT3AE (Madeira
> Island) had a QSO establishing the new record via long path for 50
> MHz of over 25,000 km."
> 
> "http://www.uksmg.org/content/historyjapan.htm
> 
> "Jon, N0JK"
> 
> KH6CJJ wrote:
> 
> "My novice license was issued in 1957.  As a novice I was limited to
> CW with crystal control and had only one or two crystals in the 15
> meter novice band.  As I remember, one was around 21.175.  In the
> evenings, I would hear VKs and ZLs operating AM around that
> frequency with great signals.  I started calling them on CW and
> worked many cross mode.  My 60 watt signal was loud enough there to
> cause them to see who was calling, even though I was many kilocycles
> away and on CW.
> 
> "I got my Conditional (General for those who did not have access to
> an FCC examination office) license in 1958.  Band conditions were so
> good that in the Fall and Spring I would cause big pileups of
> Europeans on 15 while running 40 watts AM with my Heathkit DX-35.
> Europe is the toughest place to work from Hawaii and I have never
> had the same pileups ever since, even running more power on SSB with
> a better antenna.
> 
> "PS - I enjoy your propagation bulletin every week...keep up the
> good work!
> 
> "Kent Carlson KH6CJJ Maui Hawaii"
> 
> Max White, M0VNG sent this article about activity at the core of the
> Sun:
> 
> http://bit.ly/2ie0EYl
> 
> Here is an article from the Chinese Academy of Sciences regarding
> sunspot helicity, which I had not heard of.
> 
> http://bit.ly/2i05pG4
> 
> Helicity definition:
> 
> https://www.aa.washington.edu/research/HITsi/research/helicity
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 15 through 21 were 12, 0, 0, 13, 12,
> 25, and 15, with a mean of 11. 10.7 cm flux was 72.5, 72.6, 72.1,
> 72.3, 72.8, 74.9, and 75, with a mean of 73.2. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 3, 3, 6, 9, 5, 6, and 23, with a mean of 7.9. Estimated
> mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 3, 6, 5, 4, and 18, with a mean of
> 5.7.
> NNNN
> /EX