[SFDXA] ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

[William Marx]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051
> ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP51
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51  ARLP051
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  December 16, 2016
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP051
> ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Average daily solar indices over the past week were lower than the
> previous seven days, with average daily sunspot number declining
> from 40.9 to 13, and average daily solar flux dropping 10 points
> from 82.2 to 72.2.
> 
> Geomagnetic indicators were higher, with average daily planetary A
> index rising from 4.9 to 13.3, and mid-latitude A index from 3.4 to
> 9.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 72 on December 16-20, 75 on December 21-22,
> 88 on December 23-27, 86 on December 28-29, 88 on December 30
> through January 1, 86 on January 2-3, 84 and 82 on January 4-5, 80
> on January 6-7, 73 on January 8-9, 75 on January 10-14, 82 on
> January 15-16, 86 on January 17-18, 88 on January 19-23, 86 on
> January 24-25 and 88 on January 26-28.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 16, 8 on December
> 17-18, 15 on December 19-20, then 25, 28, 12, 10 and 8 on December
> 21-25, 5 on December 26 through January 1, then 8, 10, 20 and 22 on
> January 2-5, 16 on January 6-7, 8 on January 8, 5 on January 9-12, 8
> on January 13-14, then 12, 16, 22 and 30 on January 15-18 then 12,
> 10 and 8 on January 19-21, and 5 on January 22-28.
> 
> From Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, "the geomagnetic activity forecast for the
> period December 16 to January 11, 2017:
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be:
> Quiet on December 16, 30-31, January 10-11
> Mostly quiet on December 17, 26-29, January 8-9
> Quiet to unsettled on December 18-19, 23-25, January 1-3
> Quiet to active on December 20, January 6-7
> Active to disturbed on December 21-22, January 4-5
> 
> "Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on
> December 17-23, January 2-7."
> 
> Evan Rolek, K9SQG of Beavercreek, Ohio wrote: "For me, poor
> propagation is something that is LOVED! Why? It is easier to make
> A-B antenna comparisons and to identify which antenna works the
> best, then I'll be ready when propagation improves. (Not for me
> since it will be 5-10 years when it gets better, and I've already
> submitted my application to the Silent Key Club.)"
> 
> In conversation with Lee Gordy, W4KUT, I asked him about 10 and 15
> meters at the peak of Cycle 19.
> 
> "Just after the peak of SS Cycle 19, my only antenna was a 40 meter
> dipole (up abt 30 or 40 feet), fed with 75 ohm coax...my xmt VFO was
> pretty much stuck on the low end of 40 CW.
> 
> "I had a Viking Ranger II, which had a Pi Network output. It could
> load up bed springs. So, I could trick the 40 mtr ant into radiating
> just about ANY frequency, but with way less than the advertised
> output power.
> 
> "One summer afternoon there was a knock on the door. It was my ham
> buddy, K4AIP (Roger, aka Rozy), out of breath, he'd just bicycled
> over from across town...(Not everybody in those days had
> telephones).  'Hey man, I just worked Nigeria on 15! Fire up your
> rig. I bet he's still there.'
> 
> "We went into the shack and tuned up my 40 mtr ant on 15 AM phone
> (this was before the proliferation of SSB). And yep, there was the
> Nigerian at 20 over S9...WOW!
> 
> "Because of the mismatch, I probably had less than 5 watts ERP. I
> gave the guy a call...HE CAME BACK to me!  WOW!
> 
> "From Atlanta to Nigeria and back, on less than 5 watts. I've still
> got that QSL card - 5N2FEL.
> 
> "Cycle 19...it'll probably never be that good again - Lee, W4KUT"
> 
> Regarding propagation during last weekend's ARRL 10 Meter Contest,
> Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas wrote:
> 
> "Sporadic-E popped up on both 6 and 10 meters Saturday Dec. 10. The
> Es allowed contestants in the ARRL 10 meter contest to fill their
> logs.
> 
> "10 was wide open to W4, W5 and west to AZ, CO and NM from Kansas
> 1645z to 1800z. My first contact was VP5CW at 1645z via double hop
> Es. Worked several stations in Colorado which is a fairly short
> distance.
> 
> "I went out fixed mobile later and found strong Es on 10 meters from
> 1930-2200z to W1, W2 and W3. MUF at this time seem lower, probably
> just above 30 MHz Worked VHFers W3EP and K1RO. Only F-layer DX I
> worked was PX2B at 2052z."
> 
> Sam, K5SW EM25 Oklahoma wrote me about 6 meter Es Dec. 10:
> 
> "The minor E season of Dec/Jan had 50 MHz open today, Dec. 10th.
> From 1700z-1800z I worked FM05, FM17, and FM16 stations. I heard
> beacons from that area. Maybe we will have some E-skip during the
> Jan VHF contest, too."
> 
> Jon wrote this on Sunday:
> 
> "The 10M Contest was a bust Sunday.  Only Q I had was with W2GDJ NY
> at 1904z.
> 
> "Ran 5 W to mobile whip both days."
> 
> Also got this report from Bil Paul: "Of course the 10m contest was
> happening this weekend. I wasn't at all sure 10m would be open. But
> I went up to check it out.
> 
> "DX-wise, I found South America coming in: Peru, Chile, and
> Argentina. I was able to contact CE2DK in Chile and a Mexican
> station with 10w SSB and a vertical dipole.
> 
> "I heard an American East Coast station coming in with a peculiar
> flutter for a short time.
> 
> "Bil Paul KD6JUI Dixon, CA"
> 
> Gary, K7GS of Spokane, Washington wrote regarding the 10 meter
> contest:
> 
> "Conditions in the inland Pacific Northwest were poor at best. Good
> TEP openings to SA on Saturday along with some east coast and
> southeast propagation. On Sunday no east coast or Midwest
> propagation but we did experience some TEP to central SA plus one or
> two W6s via short skip. Let's hope it will not be much worse in the
> coming few years."
> 
> A couple of interesting links from Brian Calvert, KG7MU, regarding
> out of phase solar magnetic fields:
> 
> http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/795/1/46/pdf
> 
> http://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14 were 14, 12, 0, 13, 13,
> 14, and 25, with a mean of 13. 10.7 cm flux was 74.8, 72.9, 72.2,
> 71.4, 70.8, 71.2, and 72.4, with a mean of 72.2. Estimated planetary
> A indices were 23, 25, 16, 15, 6, 4, and 4, with a mean of 13.3.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 14, 18, 11, 11, 5, 2, and 2,
> with a mean of 9.
> NNNN
> /EX