[SFDXA] ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

[William Marx]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033
> ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP33
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33  ARLP033
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  August 12, 2016
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP033
> ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> After two days of no sunspots on August 3 and 4, solar activity
> resumed with both sunspot number and solar flux rising into the 90s.
> Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 10.7 in the last reporting
> week to 52 this week (August 4 to 10).  Both averages were
> suppressed by having a sunspot number of zero on the last day of the
> old week and again on the first day of the most recent week.
> 
> Average daily solar flux rose from 72.1 to 87.9.  Average planetary
> A index went from 13 to 14.6, and average mid-latitude A index from
> 11.9 to 13.7.
> 
> The latest solar flux prediction from USAF/NOAA shows 95 on August
> 12, 90 on August 13 to 15, 95 on August 16 to 18, then 90 and 85 on
> August 19 and 20, 75 on August 21 to 26, 80 on August 27 through
> September 1, then 85, 95, 100 and 105 on September 2 to 5, 100 on
> September 6 to 9, 95 on September 10 to 13, with flux values
> dropping to 75 on September 17 to 22 before rising again.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on August 12 and 13, 5 on
> August 14 and 15, then 8, 12, 10 and 8 on August 16 to 19, 5 on
> August 20 to 23, 15 on August 24 and 25, 5 on August 26 to 28, then
> 15, 25 and 18 on August 29 to 31, 15 on September 1 and 2, then 12,
> 8 and 5 on September 3 to 5, 12 on September 6 and 7, 8 on September
> 8, 5 on September 9 and 10 and 12 on September 11 and 12.
> 
> Petr Kolman, OK1MGW sends this: 
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 12 to September
> 7, 2016
> 
> Geomagnetic field will be: 
> Quiet on August 26 and 27 
> Mostly quiet on August 12 to 14, 17 and 18, 22, September 7 
> Quiet to unsettled on August 15, 19, 23, 31, September 1 to 3, 6 
> Quiet to active on August 16, 20 and 21, 24 and 25, 28 to 30,
> September 4 and 5 
> Active to disturbed on August (29 and 30) 
> 
> Increased solar wind from coronal holes are expected on August 20
> and 21, 23 and 24, 28 to 30, September 4 and 5
> 
> Parenthesis means lower probability of increased activity.
> 
> Max White, M0VNG of Worcester, England sent this fascinating piece
> from New Scientist about the US Air Force deploying micro-sats to
> release plasma into the ionosphere.  This creates artificial clouds
> of ionization which should improve HF propagation:
> 
> http://bit.ly/2bmCugb
> 
> Richard Ferry, K2KA of Westford, Massachusetts worked HH2AA, call
> sign of Radio Club D'Haiti, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti at 1552 UTC on
> August 9, 2016.  This was a 6 meter CW QSO.
> 
> 15 minutes later it's confirmed on LOTW!!!
> 
> That is awesome and for the life of me can't figure out why it takes
> some stations months to upload to LOTW?
> 
> I upload every day.
> 
> I believe the club station at HH2AA is an HF remote base station,
> and they have devised some way to automatically send confirmations
> to LOTW, frequently and in real time.
> 
> "Later in the day I worked Europe, nothing new but did work CT1HZE
> at 1827Z and heard CS5BALG/B.
> 
> I also worked CO8LY on July 24th at 0021 on JT65 and again on CW on
> July 25 at 1447Z.  He also has a good QSL system.  Send to his
> manager EA7ADH.  Have worked him on 40M thru 6M now.  Always get a
> card.
> 
> My station here is the ICOM IC-7700 (160 to 6, 200W), 7100 (160 to
> 70CM 100W), Ameritron AL811H for 160 to 10M, Dipoles on HF bands, 5
> el M2 6 meter Yagi at 40 ft., 10 el and 19 el on 2M and 70cm at 30
> ft."
> 
> In 1967, the US government mis-interpreted a strong solar storm and
> thought the Soviet Union was jamming all our radar.  Allegedly this
> took us to the brink of Armageddon.
> 
> http://bit.ly/2aPNOP0
> 
> http://bit.ly/2bh7QQV
> 
> Thanks to Max White and David Moore for the above articles.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for August 4 through 10 were 0, 36, 33, 63, 91, 72,
> and 69, with a mean of 52.  10.7 cm flux was 76.3, 79.8, 83.1, 92.7,
> 96.4, 92.3, and 95, with a mean of 87.9.  Estimated planetary A
> indices were 18, 16, 14, 12, 12, 14, and 16, with a mean of 14.6.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 17, 16, 13, 12, 9, 15, and 14
> with a mean of 13.7.
> NNNN
> /EX