[SFDXA] ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043
> ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP43
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43  ARLP043
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  October 23, 2015
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP043
> ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Average daily sunspot numbers over the past week were up 38.1 points
> to 75, and average daily solar flux rose 30.7 points to 118.2.
> Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the week, with average
> planetary A index declining from 25.1 to 11, and mid-latitude A
> index dropping from 17.6 to 9.1.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 125 on October 23-25, 120 on October 26-28,
> 115 on October 29-30, 85 on October 31 through November 1, 80 on
> November 2-6, then 85, 90, 95, 100, 105, 110, 115 and 120 on
> November 7-14, 125 on November 15-17, 120 on November 18-20, and 115
> on November 21-22. Flux values then drop to 80 on November 28
> through December 3.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12, 24 and 8 on October 23-26,
> then 5, 8, 12 and 10 on October 27-30, 5 on October 31 through
> November 2, 50 on November 3, 40 on November 4, 25 on November 5, 12
> on November 6-7, then 20, 25, 20 and 10 on November 8-11, and 8 on
> November 12-13. A index then drops to 5 on November 19-24, then
> bounces back to 50 on November 30.
> 
> Those Ap index values of 50 on November 3 and again on November 30
> seem to be echoes of the October 7-8 period when planetary A index
> was 77 and 56. The high values are each spaced one whole solar
> rotation (27-28 days) from each other.
> 
> F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent us his weekly prediction for geomagnetic
> conditions. He believes the geomagnetic field will be mostly quiet
> October 23, quiet to active October 24, quiet to unsettled October
> 25, quiet on October 26, mostly quiet October 27, quiet to active
> October 28, mostly quiet October 29, quiet to active October 30
> through November 1, active to disturbed November 2, quiet to active
> November 3, active to disturbed November 4, mostly quiet November
> 5-6, quiet to unsettled November 7, quiet to active November 8,
> active to disturbed November 9, quiet to active November 10, mostly
> quiet November 11-12, quiet to unsettled November 13-14, mostly
> quiet November 15, quiet to unsettled November 16, and quiet to
> active November 17.
> 
> OK1HH expects increased solar wind on October 29-31, November 2-5,
> 10-11, 15, 18 and 19-20. The days October 29-30, November 2, 5,
> 10-11 and 19-20 have a lower probability of increased solar wind.
> 
> Now what do all these numbers mean? For good HF conditions we like
> to see a quiet geomagnetic field, and higher solar flux and sunspot
> numbers. The A index also represents geomagnetic conditions, and for
> this, single-digit numbers are desirable, the lower the better. An A
> index about 10 represents unsettled to active conditions and when it
> gets toward 50, this is a geomagnetic storm.
> 
> The main reason we like low geomagnetic numbers is the higher
> numbers may indicate higher absorption.
> 
> Read
> https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
> for a good explanation of A index and other solar indices.
> 
> Dave Ballard, W2VK and David Moore both sent in a Science Daily
> article about some large solar storms perhaps being undetected. Read
> it at http://bit.ly/1jDxjYh .
> 
> Ray Price, KE4YOG of Goldsboro, North Carolina wrote: "12 meters has
> been fun lately. I worked 9K2WA (Kuwait) on 21 October at 1518 UTC
> along with several other stations. On 22 October at 2145 UTC I
> worked V73D (Marshall Islands) for a ATNO (All Time New One) on
> 24.955 MHz. I haven't been able to be on but an hour or two here and
> there, but 12 meters has been fun.
> 
> "All were worked with a Kenwood TS480HX running 200 watts into a 230
> Doble up about 60 feet in the sycamore trees."
> 
> The reference to the "230 Doble" had me scratching my head, but I
> think he may be referring to a 230 foot long doublet. If so, that's
> a dipole about 6 wavelengths long on 12 meters.
> 
> Don't forget, this weekend is the SSB portion of the CQ Worldwide DX
> Contest.  See http://www.cqww.com/rules.htm . Conditions should be
> good, with no predicted geomagnetic storm until November 3.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar
> flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
> http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .
> 
> Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore
> the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress
> the download.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for October 15 through 21 were 49, 68, 83, 81, 94,
> 77, and 73, with a mean of 75. 10.7 cm flux was 106.8, 109.1, 116.6,
> 119.5, 123.7, 122.8, and 129, with a mean of 118.2. Estimated
> planetary A indices were 10, 8, 11, 22, 5, 9, and 12, with a mean of
> 11. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 9, 8, 9, 15, 3, 8, and 12,
> with a mean of 9.1.
> NNNN
> /EX