[SFDXA] ARLP031 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP031
> ARLP031 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP31
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 31  ARLP031
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  July 31, 2015
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP031
> ARLP031 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> At 0132 UTC on July 30 the Australian Space Forecast Center issued a
> geomagnetic disturbance warning, saying a high speed solar wind from
> a recurring coronal hole is expected to raise geomagnetic activity
> levels to minor storms on July 31 and August 1. They predict quiet
> to minor storm levels on July 31 and minor storm declining to
> unsettled conditions on August 1.
> 
> Solar activity currently remains in the doldrums, with average daily
> sunspot numbers rising just 4.5 points to 47.9 during the July 23 to
> period from the prior week.
> 
> Average daily solar flux over the same periods rose just 1.5 points
> to 96.4.
> 
> When I look at the solar disc displayed at http://spaceweather.com/
> I count six numbered sunspot groups, but they are not magnetically
> complex, and the types of radiation we need to energize our
> ionosphere is weak.
> 
> The most active geomagnetic day was July 23, when the planetary A
> index was 23 and the mid-latitude A index was 21. That day there was
> a mild geomagnetic storm caused by a coronal mass ejection that did
> not hit earth directly.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 105 on July 31 through August 2, 110 on
> August 3 to 5, 115 on August 6, 110 on August 7, 100 on August 8 and
> 9, 95 on August 10 to 13, then 90 and 85 on August 14 and 15, and
> 100 on August 16 and 17. Solar flux peaks at 115 on August 28 to 31,
> then drops below 100 after September 5.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 18 on July 31, 24 on August 1, then
> 16, 12 and 8 on August 2 to 4, then 5, 8 and 20 on August 5 to 7,
> then 15 on August 8 and 9, and 8 on August 10, 5 on August 11 to 15,
> 10 on August 16, 5 on August 17 and 18, then 15 and 10 on August 19
> and 20, and 5 on August 21 to 23.
> 
> OK1MGW predicts the geomagnetic field will be active to disturbed on
> July 31 and August 1, quiet to active August 2, mostly quiet August
> 3 to 5, quiet to active August 6, active to disturbed August 7 and
> 8, quiet to active August 9, quiet to unsettled August 10 and 11,
> quiet August 12 to 14, mostly quiet August 15, quiet to unsettled
> August 16, mostly quiet August 17, quiet to active August 18, quiet
> to unsettled August 19 to 22, and mostly quiet August 23 to 26.
> 
> He expects increased solar wind on July 31 through August 3, and
> again on August 6 to 9.
> 
> Rich Camp, WA7VGN of Las Vegas, Nevada wanted to be sure meteor
> showers also occur during daylight. Yes, they do, and you can make
> contacts via meteor scatter day and night.
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK passed along a good resource for meteor scatter,
> Ping Jockey Central:
> 
> http://www.pingjockey.net/cgi-bin/pingtalk
> 
> Jon mentioned this will be a great tool for checking activity during
> the upcoming Perseids Meteor shower, which is August 11 to 14 this
> year.
> 
> Jon also passed along some sporadic-E news:
> 
> "The summer 2015 North America Sporadic E skip season is winding
> down. Usually the peak period is around the summer solstice through
> the first week to 10 days of July.
> 
> Some late season July Es continued. On July 21, PR8ZX GI64 in Brazil
> worked into the Midwest on 6 meters and was spotted 599 by K2DRH at
> 2239z. This was multi-hop Es to the geomagnetic equator.
> 
> A strong 6 meter opening between Arizona, California and Washington
> State to Japan took place July 24 and 25.
> 
> On the July 26, CO8LY FL20 worked into the Midwest and Rocky
> Mountain states via double hop Es. Spotted by K0GU DN70 and NW0W
> EM47 until 1650z. I logged him on 50.108 MHz at 1758z."
> 
> Jon also passed along this late news: "July 30, J69MV, VP2ETE, FG8OJ
> and KV4FZ were in to IA, MO, OK and W4 around 1630z via double hop
> E-skip on 50 MHz."
> 
> Check this map for live lightning detection across North America:
> 
> http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=30
> 
> This was passed on by Dick Bingham, W7WKR who lives way off the grid
> at Stehekin, Washington, which is at the northwest end of Lake
> Chelan.
> 
> He advises making sure Strikes, Detectors Used and Sound are turned
> on for the lightning app.
> 
> Also check these pages:
> 
> http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page=2
> 
> http://www.usatoa.com/
> 
> Pierre Desjardins, VE2PID of Sherbrooke, Quebec asked about the
> predicted International Sunspot Number at http://1.usa.gov/1HOVlDP
> and what the numbers in parenthesis mean.
> 
> The numbers above the parenthesis are predicted smoothed
> international sunspot numbers, which use a 13-month average.  A zero
> means there is zero uncertainty about the number, because all of the
> data used to calculate this smoothed number are known values. But as
> we move into the future, there is more uncertainty. For the latest
> month, we already know half the data used to calculate the average,
> but the other half of the data is predicted.  So the higher numbers
> in parenthesis indicate greater uncertainty.
> 
> Rob Steenburgh, AD0IU who works as a space weather forecaster at
> NOAA said the predictions here are from the McNish-Lincoln
> technique, from a paper published in 1949.  The method is described
> here:
> 
> http://1.usa.gov/1MBc4l8
> 
> Rob is checking with a colleague to find out exactly what the
> numbers represent and perhaps the scale used.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar
> flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
> http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .
> 
> Click on "Download this file" to download the archive and ignore the
> security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress
> download. I've had better luck with Firefox than IE.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for July 23 through 29 were 27, 54, 41, 38, 53, 56,
> and 66, with a mean of 47.9.  10.7 cm flux was 89.4, 92.2, 94, 97,
> 100.1, 101.1, and 100.7, with a mean of 96.4. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 23, 7, 9, 8, 11, 9, and 5, with a mean of 10.3.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 21, 6, 9, 9, 13, 9, and 7,
> with a mean of 10.6.
> NNNN
> /EX