[SFDXA] ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Jul 10 18:34:32 EDT 2015

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028
> ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP28
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28  ARLP028
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  July 10, 2015
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP028
> ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Solar activity perked up over the July 2 to 8 period, with average
> daily sunspot numbers increasing from 35.9 to 109.1, compared to the
> previous seven days.
> 
> Likewise, average daily solar flux increased from 100.7 to 123.2.
> 
> Daily sunspot numbers were below 100 on June 16 through July 3,
> bottoming out at 25 on June 27.
> 
> A moderate geomagnetic storm on July 4 and 5 was caused by a solar
> wind stream.  The mid-latitude A index from Fredericksburg, Virginia
> on July 4 to 6 was 21, 16 and 9.  The planetary A index, based on
> observations from a number of Northern Hemisphere magnetometers was
> 19, 25 and 10 on those same days, and the college A index from
> Fairbanks, Alaska was 13, 31 and 18.
> 
> The current outlook (on Thursday before the bulletin is published)
> has predicted solar flux over the following seven days a bit weaker,
> averaging 118.1, Thursday through Wednesday.
> 
> You can check how the daily 45-day forecast of solar flux has done
> recently by going to http://bit.ly/1KQGbRm and clicking "Download
> this file."
> 
> The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA has solar flux at 125 on July 9
> to 11, 122 on July 12, 120 on July 13, 115 on July 14 and 15, 125 on
> July 16, 130 on July 17 and 18, then 125, 115, 110 and 105 on July
> 19 to 22, then 100 on July 23 to 26, then 105, 110 and 112 on July
> 27 to 29, 115 on July 30 and 31, 120 on August 1 and 125 on August 2
> to 4.  Solar flux then peaks at 130 on August 10 to 14, then goes to
> 100 after August 18.
> 
> For planetary A index, the prediction is 12, 25 and 18 on July 10 to
> 12, 8 on July 13 and 14, 5 on July 15 to 17, 8 on July 18 and 19, 5
> on July 20 to 25, 8 on July 26, 5 on July 27 to 30, then 18, 25 and
> 12 on July 31 through August 2, then 5 on August 3 to 5, then 20 and
> 25 on August 6 and 7, 8 on August 8 and 9, 5 on August 10 to 13, and
> 8 on August 14 and 15.
> 
> For the next few days USAF and NOAA predict the geomagnetic field at
> quiet to active levels July 10, then unsettled to minor storm levels
> on July 11, and unsettled to active levels July 12.  They see a
> slight chance of M-class flare activity on July 10 to 12.
> 
> Australia's Space Weather Services at the Bureau of Meteorology in
> Haymarket, New South Wales issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning
> at 2316 UTC on July 9.  They said coronal hole effects starting late
> July 10 are likely to produce active periods and storm levels at
> higher latitudes on July 11.  They repeat that increased geomagnetic
> activity is expected due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream
> over July 10 to 12.  They see quiet to active conditions July 10,
> unsettled to minor storm July 11, and unsettled to active conditions
> on July 12.
> 
> By the way, all times expressed in this bulletin are in coordinated
> universal time, so 2355Z is the same as 2355 UTC and 2355 GMT.  The
> date relates to the clock also, so 2355Z on July 10 is 6 minutes
> before 0001Z on July 11.
> 
> Petr Kolman, OK1MGW has his own geomagnetic outlook, and he predicts
> the geomagnetic field will be quiet to unsettled July 10, active to
> disturbed July 11, quiet to active July 12, quiet to unsettled July
> 13 and 14, quiet on July 15, mostly quiet July 16 and 17, quiet to
> unsettled July 18, quiet to active July 19 to 21, quiet to unsettled
> July 22 to 25, mostly quiet July 26 to 29, quiet to active July 30
> and 31, quiet to unsettled August 1 and 2, and mostly quiet August 3
> to 5.
> 
> Petr expresses some uncertainty about the active to disturbed
> prediction for July 11, and suspects it may be like the following
> day, quiet to active.  He also predicts an increase in solar wind on
> July 10 to 12 and 30 and 31.
> 
> Ed Stratton, W1ZZ of Groton, Massachusetts in FN42ep, 30 miles NW of
> Boston wrote: "I have been on 6 meters for a change of pace from HF
> DXing.  In the past few days, from June 27 to July 5 I have logged
> many W4s, W9s, and W5s, and several VO1s.
> 
> What is interesting is that there have been several openings to
> Europe, usually starting around 2000z to about 2300z.  I have logged
> both SSB and CW QSOs with PJs, YVs, 9Y4, CTs, MW, MI, MD, G, EI,
> EAs, and an EA6.
> 
> My working conditions are 150 watts and a 5 element Yagi only 22
> feet up, and just recently it was 'armstrong' rotated.  Now using a
> rebuilt 30 year old TR44."
> 
> Check out photos of Ed's antennas at https://www.qrz.com/db/W1ZZ
> 
> Ken Jones, K1DAT lives in Millis, Massachusetts (FN42he) but
> operates from a summer cottage in Sagamore Beach (FN41rt)
> overlooking Cape Cod Bay.
> 
> Ken wrote, "I was at my summer cottage over the July 4 weekend and
> missed a new grid square.
> 
> I was tuning around the CW end of six meters listening to an opening
> to Europe when I heard 4X4DK calling CQ NA on 50.103.  I only heard
> one other station calling him, like myself (5-7 times), but he
> didn't hear us.
> 
> So, I posted him on a dx cluster and within 20-30 seconds there were
> several stations calling him.  I only heard one station work him,
> N3XX, and Ami had a hard time with the exchange.
> 
> I emailed Ami and he reported back that he did not hear me, seeing
> my post he listened for me but had an S3-S5 noise level.  Maybe
> that's why more people couldn't work him."
> 
> Curious about the N3XX antenna system, I (K7RA) emailed N3XX after
> seeing photos of his antennas on his QRZ.com page.  Tim replied,
> "The three pictures on my QRZ.com page are all of the same array,
> just different views.  The array is 4x7 LFA (Loop Fed Array)
> antennas, built for 6 meter EME, but works great for terrestrial
> also.  There are two other taller towers here that support HF Yagis,
> wires, and a 5 element 6 meter Yagi.
> 
> 6 meter openings across the Atlantic have been pretty rare this
> season from this part of the country.  Working 4X4DK was one of the
> few bright spots, even though I had a few QSOs with him in past
> years.  I didn't hear him for very long, but he was 559 when we
> worked.  He had trouble hearing me though, and gave me a 439 report.
> 
> I haven't worked any new ones on 6 meters this season, but still
> hoping for good things over the next few weeks."
> 
> You can read about Loop Fed Array Yagi antennas at
> 
> http://www.innovantennas.com/lfa-benefits.html ,
> 
> http://www.g0ksc.co.uk/intro-lfa.html ,
> 
> http://www.mwadui.com/G0LFF/LFA.htm and
> 
> http://www.southgatearc.org/news/may2009/g0ksc_loop_fed_array.htm .
> 
> The IARU HF Championship is this weekend, and lasts for only 24
> hours, 1200 UTC Saturday to 1200 UTC Sunday.  See 
> http://www.arrl.org/iaru-hf-championship for details.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of
> the numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of
> past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and
> planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
> http://bit.ly/1IBXtnG and http://bit.ly/1KQGbRm .
> 
> Click on "Download this file" to download the archive and ignore the
> security warning about file format.  Pop-up blockers may suppress
> download.  I've had better luck with Firefox than IE.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for July 2 through 8 were 73, 91, 111, 131, 109,
> 118, and 131, with a mean of 109.1.  10.7 cm flux was 113.8, 112.3,
> 116.8, 124.8, 133.4, 132.6, and 128.9, with a mean of 123.2.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 3, 19, 25, 10, 5, and 5, with
> a mean of 10.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 2, 21, 16,
> 9, 5, and 5, with a mean of 8.9.
> NNNN
> /EX