[SFDXA] ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

Bill bmarx at bellsouth.net
Mon Jul 6 17:08:00 EDT 2015


> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027
> ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP27
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27  ARLP027
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  July 6, 2015
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP027
> ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Conditions over Field Day weekend turned out to be not bad at all.
> The expected geomagnetic upset never happened.  On June 25 and 26,
> the Thursday and Friday before Field Day, the predicted planetary A
> index for the June 27 and 28 was 45 and 60, really bad conditions.
> The actual planetary A index on those dates was 9 and 13, and the
> mid-latitude A index was 8 and 12, nice moderate numbers.
> 
> Average solar flux over June 25 through July 1 was 100.7, down from
> 130.8 over the previous seven days.  Average daily sunspot numbers
> declined from 71.6 to 35.9.
> 
> There were no new sunspots on June 17 to 21, one new spot on June
> 22, none on June 23 to 27, two new sunspots on June 28, a new
> sunspot on June 29 and again on June 30, and two new sunspots on
> July 2.  On July 1 there were 3 numbered sunspot groups and 5 on
> July 2.  NOAA/USAF predicts geomagnetic activity at quiet levels on
> July 3, quiet to unsettled July 4 and unsettled to minor storm
> levels on July 5.
> 
> The latest solar flux prediction has 115 on July 3 to 5, 120 on July
> 6 to 9, 125 on July 10, 130 on July 11 to 19, then 115, 110 and 105
> on July 20 to 22, 100 on July 23 to 26, 105 on July 27 through
> August 1, then flux values rise to 130 after August 6.
> 
> Planetary A index is predicted at 5, 8, 25, 15, and 8 on July 3 to
> 7, then 5 on July 8 to 10, then 18, 12 and 8 on July 11 to 13, then
> 5 on July 14 to 17, 8 on July 18 and 19, 5 on July 20 to 25, 8 on
> July 26, 5 on July 27 through August 1, then 18, 15 and 12 on August
> 2 to 4 and 8 on August 5 and 6.
> 
> Franz Janda, OK1HH, predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to
> unsettled July 3 and 4, active to disturbed July 5, quiet to active
> July 6, quiet to unsettled July 7, mostly quiet July 8 to 10, quiet
> to active July 11 and 12, quiet to unsettled July 13 and 14, quiet
> on July 15, mostly quiet July 16 and 17, quiet to unsettled July 18,
> quiet to active July 19, quiet to unsettled July 20 and 21, quiet
> July 22 and 23, and mostly quiet July 24 and 25.  Franz expects
> increases in solar wind on July 5 and 6, July 10 to 12 and July 20
> to 25.
> 
> Dave Olean, K1WHS of Lebanon, Maine wrote "I missed the big aurora
> in the early evening on Monday night June 23.  I knew it was
> happening, but had company and could not break away.  I finally did
> get away just about 0100 UT and there was six meter Es and shortly
> afterwards, I started hearing auroral buzz on several stations."
> 
> Later he wrote, "I worked all sorts of 50 MHz aurora out into the
> far Midwest on June 22-23 aurora.  In between the auroral buzz, I
> could also work several stations via 50 MHz auroral E out to the
> Seattle area with K7EK in CM97.
> 
> I also worked VE5UF and VE6EME via auroral Es.  It was interesting
> to look at the signals on my panadaptor.  You could pick out the
> auroral Es signals from the plain auroral signals by their width on
> the screen!  Later on, around 0500z, I tried really hard to work two
> KL7s, but alas, they could not hear me.  I definitely heard them
> very weakly and with an auroral Es note, but I guess the path
> geometry was less than optimum.  They could not pull me out.  The W7
> and VE auroral Es was 5x9!
> 
> One interesting contact on 50 MHz was an auroral sounding QSO with
> N5DG near Houston, Texas.  I have never worked that far via the buzz
> route.  Ed, N5DG said he also copied me with a raspy auroral note as
> well.  Just before midnight, signals started to appear on 144 MHz.
> I had missed the earlier session, so was anxious to see if the
> aurora would come back later.  It did, and I worked a few stations
> on 144 MHz for about half an hour.  I had to retrain myself in
> auroral techniques as it has been a long time for me since there was
> a good aurora on 144.  My quad Yagi array was too sharp, and I was
> constantly turning the beam to peak signals.
> 
> I worked N4QWZ in Tennessee with 59+ signals.  He was barely audible
> when I first heard him with my beam at 320 degrees.  K1HTV in FM18
> was worked early on with weak signals too at 0355Z, but later I
> peaked him up to 59+ by turning the beam more to the west.  Some of
> my beam headings were as far south as 285 degrees!  That is almost
> due west!  I also worked several stations out in the Chicago area
> and Wisconsin, but I am afraid that the activity level was low due
> to it being a late week night.  Chicago peaked at 308 degrees.
> 
> After 144 MHz died around 0430, I went back to 50 MHz looking for
> more Auroral Es.  The KL7s were heard after 0500Z.  I hung around
> until 0700 looking for more DX to KL7, but nothing materialized."
> 
> Check out the pictures on Dave's listing at QRZ.com, especially his
> stack of antennas.
> 
> Rich Zwirko, of Amissville, Virginia (who K1WHS mentioned) reports:
> "June 29, the day after the ARRL Field Day, produced some
> interesting Es openings on 50 MHz.  The day started with UT1FG/MM
> pounding into my FM18ap QTH from water grid FM92.  He was in the
> K1HTV log at 1250Z.  Less than 10 minutes later I worked Yuri again
> as he passed into another new grid, GM02.  Six meter regular CT1HZE
> was worked at 1848Z, followed by C6AUX and CN8KD a few minutes
> later.  UT1FG/MM was worked in yet another new grid, GM03, at 1913Z.
> At 2007Z I worked EA9IB in IM85, not having worked Pedro on 6 meters
> for over 15 years.  Back in 1993 the K1HTV contact with EH9IB (the
> call he was assigned back then) was the first ever USA to EA9 QSO on
> record on 50 MHz.
> 
> As June 29 progressed, at 2116Z UT1FG/MM was worked again, now in
> grid GM13, the 4th new grid for me today on the Magic Band.  In the
> last hour of the UTC day other DX stations worked included PJ5A,
> J69MD, VP2ETE and J69DS.
> 
> UTC June 30 started off with a bang.  With the MUF over 150 MHz just
> SW of my FM18ap QTH, 2 meter stations northeast of me in W1, W2 and
> W3 land were working into a number of southern states.  A cloud over
> northeast Tennessee produced enough ionization for my only 144 MHz
> Es QSO when I worked WA4ZZW in EM64 in Alabama."
> 
> David Moore sent this link, to a piece about a spectral slicing
> satellite revealing the anatomy of a solar flare:
> https://shar.es/1qwz6G .
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK wrote: "I worked C6AUX at 1509z and PJ5A at 1921z on
> 50 MHz June 28 from the Kansas City Veterans Administration Parking
> lot.  This was via sporadic E.  C6AUX was loud at times, PJ5A not as
> strong."
> 
> Jon says he works at the VA hospital part time in the Emergency
> Department, and when he wasn't busy on Sunday he took some time to
> get on six meters.  The area he operated from has a clear shot to
> the Southeast across the Blue River Valley.  He pressed a 5/8 wave 2
> meter antenna into 50 MHz service, where it operates as a 1/4 wave
> vertical.  You can see a picture at http://bit.ly/1C64dbx .  (This
> link does not work for me with Internet Explorer, but only Firefox
> for some reason).
> 
> Jon also wrote, "KI0I also worked C6AUX while mobile June 28 from
> EM28 on 6.  He used a homemade J-Pole fishing rod antenna on his
> truck.  He also logged 6Y5WJ."
> 
> On July 2 Jon wrote: "June 30 and July 1 - JW7QIA Svalbard made
> numerous contacts on 6 meters to North America.  He worked C6AUX for
> the first Bahamas to Svalbard 50 MHz contact.
> 
> Svalbard is near the North Pole and not in the mid-latitude Es zone.
> What is the propagation mechanism to North America?  Perhaps Aurora
> Es on to mid-latitude sporadic Es."
> 
> This just in:  The World Data Center Sunspot Index and Long Term
> Solar Observations from the Royal University of Belgium has finally
> transitioned to a new International Sunspot Number system, and has
> completed extensive revisions to the sunspot record, going back
> centuries.
> 
> You can read about it here:
> 
> http://www.sidc.be/
> 
> http://www.sidc.be/press/01/welcome.html
> 
> http://www.sidc.be/silso/taxonomy/term/1
> 
> http://www.sidc.be/silso/news008
> 
> The numbers used in this bulletin are the Boulder sunspot numbers,
> and will not be affected.
> 
> And finally, at the end of June it is time to look at our 3-month
> moving average of daily (Boulder) sunspot numbers.  The latest data
> is centered on May 2015, and includes all daily sunspot numbers from
> April 1 through June 30.  The numbers for January through May 2015
> are 98.2, 78.1, 68.2, 72.4 and 77.7.  The cycle peaked during the
> periods centered on February and March 2014 when the moving averages
> were 146.4 and 148.2.  The data centered on February 2014 included
> all daily sunspot numbers from January 1 through March 31.  The
> average centered on March 2014 included all daily sunspot numbers
> from February 1 through April 30.  This shifting 3-month average
> smooths the numbers, making it easier to identify shifts in the
> solar cycle.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of
> the numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of
> past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and
> planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
> http://bit.ly/1IBXtnG and http://bit.ly/1KQGbRm .
> 
> Click on "Download this file" to download the archive and ignore the
> security warning about file format.  Pop-up blockers may suppress
> download.  I've had better luck with Firefox than IE.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for June 25 through July 1 were 33, 28, 25, 39, 36,
> 41, and 49, with a mean of 35.9.  10.7 cm flux was 101.8, 101.2,
> 97.3, 97.3, 97.1, 100.8, and 109.6, with a mean of 100.7.  Estimated
> planetary A indices were 33, 10, 9, 13, 6, 6, and 5, with a mean of
> 11.7.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 19, 9, 8, 12, 6, 8, and
> 6, with a mean of 9.7.
> NNNN
> /EX


More information about the SFDXA mailing list