[SFDXA] ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002
> ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP02
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2  ARLP002
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  January 9, 2015
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP002
> ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> All solar activity indicators rose this week, sunspot numbers, solar
> flux and geomagnetic indices.
> 
> On January 7 the interplanetary magnetic field tipped south, opening
> a crack to admit solar wind. This triggered the largest geomagnetic
> storm since September 2014. That same day the planetary A index
> jumped to 38, pushing the average for the week to 17.7. The previous
> seven days (the final seven days of 2014) the average planetary A
> index was 13.9.
> 
> Average daily sunspot numbers on the first week of January were
> 108.1, compared to 102.9 in the final seven days of 2014. Likewise,
> average daily solar flux increased from 134.9 to 144.7.
> 
> The latest prediction has solar flux at 160 on January 9, 165 on
> January 10-11, 170 on January 12, 175 on January 13-14, 180 on
> January 15, then 170, 165, 160, 155, 145, 140 and 135 January 16-22,
> and reaching a minimum at 130 on January 23-27. Solar flux then
> rises to a maximum of 175 on February 8-11. The January 15 flux at
> 180 is the highest predicted solar flux for at least the next 45
> days.
> 
> Predicted Planetary A index is 15 on January 9, 10 on January 10-12,
> 8 on January 13, 5 on January 14-20, then 10, 15 and 5 on January
> 21-23, then 10, 18 and 15 on January 24-26, then 8, 5, 10 and 12 on
> January 27-30, 15 on January 31 and February 1, then 10, 8 and 18 on
> February 2-4, 10 on February 5-7, 5 on February 8-16, then 10 and 15
> on February 17-18.
> 
> F.K. Janda, OK1HH predicts quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions
> January 9-10, quiet on January 11-17, quiet to active January 18,
> mostly quiet January 19, active to disturbed January 20, quiet to
> active January 21, active to disturbed January 22, quiet January 23,
> quiet to active January 24, active to disturbed January 25, quiet to
> active January 26, quiet to unsettled January 27, and mostly quiet
> January 28.
> 
> OK1HH also predicts an increase in solar wind on January 9-11 and
> again on January 28.
> 
> Mike Morris, WA6ILQ passed along a resource he heard about from Jeff
> Kincaid, W6JK. This is part of the new Space Weather Forecast Center
> web site, and the page is titled Radio Communication Dashboard:
> 
> http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/radio-communications
> 
> Each of the three prediction displays is animated. Just hit the
> arrow button at the bottom, and the animation begins after a short
> delay.
> 
> The D Region absorption is important because the D Layer expands in
> daylight, and absorbs and attenuates lower frequency radio waves.
> This is why 160 meter signals don't propagate for long distances
> during daytime.
> 
> If 160 meters seems dead after dark, you might check the D Region
> absorption to see if absorption is the culprit.
> 
> Also on this page is a nice graphic showing aurora probability and
> one showing solar X-ray activity.
> 
> I ran across this page, which shows a display for Southern
> Hemisphere aurora:
> 
> http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/30-minute-aurora-forecast
> 
> It's been some time now since we introduced
> http://www.sunspotter.org/#/ via this bulletin, but here it is
> again. We can help classify sunspots by choosing which of two images
> is the most complex.
> 
> Brad Miskimen, N5LUL of Amarillo, Texas sent a screen shot from
> http://www.dxmaps.com/spots/map.php showing a 6 meter opening on
> Friday, January 2 around 2100-2200 UTC. Most of the contacts shown
> had their paths crossing at a midpoint near Vicksburg, Mississippi
> with an estimated MUF of 61 MHz above EM42 at 2106 UTC.
> 
> Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI wrote from Costa Rica: "Propagation on the
> upper HF bands has been lackluster at best, with only occasional
> days of really good propagation, but the lower HF bands have
> benefited noticeably. Daily, on 75 meters, the signals into the
> States are very strong in the hours around sunrise and for up to an
> hour afterward, and Jay, HP3AK has been having some useful results
> for his daily early morning DX hunting in the DX window on 75 at his
> gray line. Our morning Central American coffee klatch on 75 meters
> has been interrupted occasionally of late by QRM from the States
> that often is as strong as the locals. And the local signals just
> this morning were as strong as I have ever seen them. I'm hearing
> good signals on 60m as well. I really wish we could get back our 60
> meters privileges here in Costa Rica - that's a valued and needed
> band for us. But the prospects aren't good.
> 
> "6 meters is going into its usual Winter funk here, with ever fewer
> openings each day. We've been blessed, though, with a lot of short
> and erratic openings into the South Pacific, and Andy, YS1AG and
> Phil, TI5/N5BEK have been working Bob, ZL1RS and several VK4s at
> least once or twice a week. Other than a spectacular but short Es
> opening into the States one day last week, and another into northern
> Central America, there's been very little Es activity here in
> Central America in recent weeks.
> 
> "The almost-daily TEP openings from here into South America have
> been getting fewer and the signals weaker and being heard for
> shorter periods in the evening. Afternoon TEP has all but
> disappeared and the evening TEP is getting weaker and less reliable.
> That's the usual pattern here for this time of year; we expect
> openings to be weak and erratic until March when things should begin
> to improve.  Time to do some antenna work - getting busy doing other
> things ought to stimulate some openings."
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for January 1 through 7 were 101, 113, 122, 124, 89,
> 102, and 106, with a mean of 108.1. 10.7 cm flux was 137.5, 145.8,
> 148.7, 149.7, 141.9, 141.9, and 147.2, with a mean of 144.7.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 12, 15, 21, 18, 13, and 38,
> with a mean of 17.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 8, 13,
> 15, 10, 11, and 23, with a mean of 12.4.
> NNNN
> /EX