[SFDXA] ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Feb 27 18:40:17 EST 2015

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP009
> ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP09
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9  ARLP009
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  February 27, 2015
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP009
> ARLP009 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Average daily sunspot numbers over the past week were about the same
> (59) as last week (54.6), and average daily solar flux declined,
> from 121.4 to 116.3.
> 
> Average daily planetary A index increased from 9 to 11.3, and
> average daily mid-latitude A index also was higher, from 7 to 9.3.
> 
> These numbers compare the seven day period from February 19 to 25
> with the previous seven days.
> 
> The latest NOAA/USAF solar flux forecast shows solar flux at 110 on
> February 27 through March 1, 105 on March 2 to 4, then 115 and 130
> on March 5 and 6, 135 on March 7 to 9, 130 on March 10, 125 on March
> 11 and 12, 120 on March 13 to 17, and 115 on March 18 to 23. Solar
> flux then reaches a peak of 135 on April 3 to 5 before declining
> again.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 8, 20, 22 and 15 on February 27
> through March 2, 8 on March 3 to 6, 10 on March 7 and 8, 5 on March
> 9 to 13, then 10 and 5 on March 14 and 15, 15 on March 16 and 17, 8
> on March 18, 5 on March 19 to 21, 10 on March 2 and 8 on March 23 to
> 25.
> 
> Petr Kolman, OK1MGW believes geomagnetic conditions will be quiet to
> unsettled February 27, active to disturbed February 28, disturbed on
> March 1, active to disturbed March 2, quiet to unsettled March 3 and
> 4, mostly quiet March 5, quiet on March 6, mostly quiet March 7,
> quiet to active March 8, quiet to unsettled March 9, quiet to active
> March 10, quiet on March 11 to 13, mostly quiet March 14, quiet to
> unsettled March 15, quiet to active March 16 to 18, mostly quiet
> March 19 and 20, quiet to unsettled March 21, quiet to active March
> 22, active to disturbed March 23, quiet to unsettled March 24, and
> mostly quiet March 25.
> 
> Petr believes increases in solar wind are mostly unpredictable, but
> some peaks are expected around February 28, March 1, 8, 16 and 17,
> and 22 and 23.
> 
> At 0513 UTC on February 27 the Australian Space Forecast Centre
> issued a revised geomagnetic disturbance warning. An earlier warning
> said the predicted disturbance was due to a coronal mass ejection,
> but the cause was revised to a strong solar wind stream. They
> believe geomagnetic activity may rise to minor storm levels on
> February 28 and March 1.
> 
> Tom Frenaye, K1KI sent a couple of links referencing the Reverse
> Beacon Network as crowdsourcing for detecting solar disturbances to
> the ionosphere.
> 
> See:
> 
> http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/swe.v12.12/issuetoc
> 
> https://eos.org/research-spotlights/radio-blackout-ham-radio-operational-scientific-instrument
> 
> Max White, M0VNG forward an article about the sun from phys.org:
> 
> http://phys.org/news/2015-02-magnetic-field-sun.html
> 
> Buzz Kutcher, K3GWK in Jenkinsburg, Georgia (EM73xh) on February 15
> at 1836 UTC worked S01WS in Western Sahara on 10 meters FM. This was
> his first contact on 10 FM, and it was full quieting, sounding the
> same as when he works his close neighbor on FM simplex.
> 
> Shel Darack, WA2UBK of Livingston, New Jersey wrote:
> 
> "Band conditions were very good for me using 100W into a sloping
> dipole on 40m Saturday night and tri-band antenna on 10 and 15
> during Sunday for the ARRL CW DX Contest.
> 
> During the last hour of the contest, JA's were strong and easy to
> work on 15 meters using 100W and a small tri-band antenna at my New
> Jersey QTH.
> 
> Later, after the contest and well past sunset I noticed SSB signals
> that I could not quite tune in for clarity and thought maybe it was
> LSB.
> 
> I discovered I was hearing one side of a JA QSO in Japanese. With my
> antenna pointed nearly north toward Japan, I continued to listen for
> a while and soon a W0 came on exactly on frequency asking if the
> frequency was in use. He asked again and after no response called
> CQ. A W7 replied. The W0 commented that there was no activity on the
> band. I could hear both US stations and the JA. After a while
> propagation to the US stations faded out but I could hear the JA by
> then working a pile up of US stations."
> 
> Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia (FM19cj) wrote,
> "The solar flux has dropped into the danger zone for good 10 meter
> conditions to EU. During the ARRL CW DX contest it was just below
> 120 and the band was slow to open to EU on Saturday. I checked 10 at
> 1330Z and of the 4 EU I worked then, only an IT9 was louder direct
> path, the rest were peaking around 140 degrees over eastern SA. I
> returned to find a mix of weak and strong direct path EU at 1452Z
> almost 3 hours past my sunrise, but the band never really opened to
> the Baltic states and Scandinavia.
> 
> Most of my QSO's were more southerly central and western EU and the
> run ran dry at 1727Z, so I went back to 15. Both days prop to the
> Caribbean seemed marginal along with very northern SA, farther south
> was OK. The majority of JA's were worked right at the start Friday
> evening with the big guns having S 7-9 signals. I found DU3 who is
> exactly the same heading as JA and RT0F also same heading of 330.
> KH6 was pretty loud then and for both afternoons into evening along
> with ZL, but no VK's were heard. Sunday into EU at 1322Z was much
> like a high SFI opening with good signals even from Russia and
> Scandinavia. I was called by Saudi Arabia, UN7, and two VU's all
> having strong signals. I ended up with 845 QSO's in 78 countries.
> 
> Fifteen meters was the best overall band for me with 933 QSO's in
> 100 countries. One of the PVRC skilled ops, K3RV, locally made over
> 1900 QSO's in over 120 countries. Both days conditions were
> excellent to East Asia with many loud JA's and EU, and also good
> openings also into central Asia. In the first hour a JW called me
> and I logged big gun stations from OH and SM as well, not bad for
> 2-3 AM at their QTH. There must have been some auroral sporadic E.
> Also logged were Hong Kong, China, and several loud Hawaiians.
> 
> Signals from EU were quite loud by 1153Z Saturday and the big guns
> from about HA westward were in both days past 2130Z when the
> majority of EU ops were on 20 by 2000Z. EU signals were the loudest
> of any band from all over on 15 and AF was loud until 2200Z.
> 
> Propagation on 20 was good to everywhere at some time of the
> contest. At 0100Z about half of EU was pretty loud from DL, OK, and
> HA farther south and west and all of northern EU. AF was loud (D4,
> CN, EA8, EA9, CR3, Z8 Southern Sudan and ZR9 South Africa) as well
> as everyone to the south, all of Siberia, and KH6 as well. It was a
> lot of DX fun and rotator workout. EU was loud either side of my
> sunrise and again from about 1830-2130Z. On Sunday through a drone
> of EU callers, I heard JA's, BG2 and E20 (Thailand) louder than EU
> and also was called by RI1ANZ from Antarctica long path. The morning
> 20M Antarctica LP is open frequently, but not utilized that often.
> Clearing 7 inches of snow that fell Saturday cost me quite a few EU
> QSO's Sunday afternoon.
> 
> 40 was about as good as it gets with strong EU signals from central
> and south EU throughout the evening, although not as strong around
> sunset. I logged a few Asians including 7Z in Saudi Arabia, a few
> AF, and DP1POL in Antarctica. JA's were weak to me, but my antenna
> is only a sloping dipole to JA, logged about 4 along with ZL.
> 
> 80 was in decent shape to EU especially to UR and UA6 with many of
> them logged. OH0 and two JA's were logged as well as loud sunrise
> KH6. I had a nice run of about 80 mostly EU stations the first night
> around 0400Z. I found KL7 around sunrise Sunday and we moved down to
> 160 successfully also! I finished with 156 QSO's in 39 countries in
> limited time there.
> 
> My 160 meter score was probably my best ever in ARRL DX with 41
> QSO's in 30 countries largely thanks to finding very good EU
> conditions at 0300Z the first night. I worked as far east as RW7 and
> UR and did get a few EU to answer CQ's. There was no EU sunrise peak
> here like they were getting in New England; signals were much weaker
> than 0300Z. The second night was poor to EU, but I did manage 2
> brand new 160 countries, TI9 and LU. The LU8 had a very good signal,
> but could barely copy me through his summer QRN. I also logged
> Ecuador."
> 
> KD2BD, John Magliacane of Sea Girt, New Jersey emailed a blast from
> the past, some old email (from me), ARRL bulletins, and various
> posts from the late 1980s and early 1990s on Usenet and the amateur
> packet radio network, which he recovered from archives on an old
> hard drive.
> 
> I hope to post some newly recovered ARRL Propagation Bulletins from
> 1990-1991 at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . If
> you find any old archives such as this, please contact me at
> k7ra at arrl.net .
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for February 19 through 25 were 86, 53, 54, 49, 44,
> 63, and 64, with a mean of 59. 10.7 cm flux was 118.7, 119.7, 116.1,
> 117.5, 116.8, 114.4, and 111, with a mean of 116.3.  Estimated
> planetary A indices were 8, 6, 7, 7, 17, 25, and 9, with a mean of
> 11.3. Estimated mid- latitude A indices were 5, 4, 8, 6, 14, 21, and
> 7, with a mean of 9.3.
> NNNN
> /EX
>