[SFDXA] ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050
> ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP50
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50  ARLP050
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  December 11, 2015
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP050
> ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Australia's Space Weather Services issued a geomagnetic warning at
> 0132 UTC on December 9. It said that due to solar wind from a
> coronal hole, expect increased geomagnetic activity on November 10.
> 
> Both average daily solar flux and average daily sunspot numbers were
> higher over the December 3 to 9 period than on the previous week.
> 
> Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 41.6 to 48 and average
> daily solar flux rose from 97.2 to 102.2.
> 
> Geomagnetic indicators rose at well, with planetary A index rising
> from 9.9 to 12.6 and mid-latitude A index from 6.6 to 11.1.
> 
> Predicted solar flux for the near term is 112 and 115 on December 11
> and 12, 120 on December 13 to 15, then 115 on December 16 and 17,
> 105 on December 18, 100 on December 19 to 26, 98 on December 27, 95
> on December 28 and 29, 98 on December 30, 100 on December 31 and 105
> on January 1 and 2, 100 on January 3 and 4 and 105 on January 5 to
> 11.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 22, 16 and 12 on December 11 to 13,
> then 10, 6, 10 and 6 on December 13 to 15, then 10 and 8 on December
> 16 and 17, 5 on December 18 to 26, then 18, 15 and 10 on December 27
> to 29, and 5 on December 30 and 31, then 15, 20, 18 and 10 on
> January 1 to 4, then 8, 12 and 10 on January 5 to 7, and 8 on
> January 8 to 11.
> 
> Today we have an updated geomagnetic forecast from Petr Kolman,
> OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group. OK1MGW and OK1HH
> have made these weekly forecasts since 1978, 37 years!
> 
> Petr expects quiet to active geomagnetic conditions on December 11,
> quiet to unsettled December 12, mostly quiet December 13, quiet to
> active December 14 and 15, quiet to unsettled December 16, quiet
> December 17 to 22, mostly quiet December 23, quiet to active
> December 24 and 25, quiet to unsettled December 26 and 27, active to
> disturbed December 28, quiet to unsettled December 29, mostly quiet
> December 30 and 31, quiet to active January 1 to 3, quiet to
> unsettled January 4, and quiet to active again on January 5 and 6.
> 
> He expects increases in solar wind on December 11, 14 and 15, 24 and
> 25 and January 1 to 3 and 5 and 6.
> 
> So far this year we have an average daily sunspot number of 71.2,
> and by December 31 that average will probably not deviate much,
> because the 71.2 figure is based on 94 percent of the data we will
> have by the end of the day on December 31.
> 
> The average daily sunspot numbers for the years 2008-2015 were 4.7,
> 5.1, 25.5, 80.1, 82.3, 97.1, 121.2 and 71.2, with the last figure
> being a preliminary value. Cycle 23 had a peak year in 2001 at
> 176.7. The two previous years (1999-2000) each had a yearly average
> of daily sunspot numbers above 170 (173 and 170.3). So the peak of
> the previous cycle had much higher sunspot numbers, plus the peak
> was sustained over several years.
> 
> We finally received a couple of reports from participants in the CQ
> World Wide CW DX Contest a couple of weeks back, from N8II and NK8Q.
> 
> First from Mark Schreiner, NK8Q in State College, Pennsylvania
> reporting on December 4:
> 
> "I only operated for a few hours from mid-afternoon (2000 UTC) on
> Sunday until the end of the contest at 2400 UTC. 10m was open okay
> at that time and I put quite a few stations in the log, then moved
> to 15m to continue doing the same. It was open better than 10m and I
> mostly managed to work stations into South America on both bands,
> but also the farther reaches of North America as well. I finished
> off with 20m for the last 60-90 minutes with most of the contacts
> during that time into Japan. It is always fun having a run in the
> log to JA-land!
> 
> I'm looking forward to the 160m contest this weekend (this was
> written on December 4, so the 160 meter contest was actually last
> weekend, December 5-6). I did a quick check of the antenna
> (Inverted-V, I sure miss my Inverted-L from my old QTH!) at the
> clubhouse of Nittany ARC just outside of State College, Pennsylvania
> last night to make sure it was still functional (last year was the
> first year it was functional since I moved to this area about 5
> years ago).
> 
> I didn't have time to check the Beverage antenna we deployed last
> winter, but may do so on Saturday with some daylight to get its
> advantage into EU on Saturday night. I have to work until 2200 UTC
> and then have dinner with my XYL, but plan to spend most of the
> night at the clubhouse to operate for the evening and at least until
> 0800 UTC.
> 
> Saturday night I can't get on until much later due to a surprise
> birthday party but afterward I'll be on the air until at least 0800
> UTC again. I'm hoping conditions are favorable for others to hear my
> QRP signal as I've done in the past!"
> 
> Uh-oh Mark. Now that this bulletin has been read all over the world,
> is that birthday party still a surprise? I guess so, since it
> actually happened last week.
> 
> Now, about 94 miles directly south of NK8Q, a report from occasional
> contributor Jeff Hartley, N8II in Shepherdstown, West Virginia:
> 
> "Here is a brief summary of CQWW CW from here.
> 
> 160 M: It was not a good weekend for those short of super station
> level, there seemed to be a lack of Caribbean signals as well as
> weak EU, but I did manage 9A (Croatia), OZ1IKY (the EU leader it
> appears, in Denmark), S5 (Slovenia), DL (Germany), OM (Slovak
> Republic), and EI (Ireland) the first night, but the second night
> was worse.
> 
> 80M: Conditions were okay, but EU stations were not loud around 0300
> UTC the first night, then quite good by 0430-0530 UTC including
> northern EU and Russia. 4X (Israel) and TC0A in Turkey were logged.
> JA3YKC was heard but weak around Saturday sunrise.
> 
> 40M: Plenty of EU activity through the night until I had to QRT both
> days, zone 14 weakened around 0300-0400 UTC the first night. It was
> surprising that EU did not drop out around 0200- 0400 UTC. Even the
> second night, EU activity kept the band crowded with many S9+
> signals. I worked 4X, A7 (Qatar) and 7Z1 (Saudi Arabia) in the
> Middle East and 3D2 (Swaziland) and JA around Sunday sunrise.
> SU90IARU (Egypt) was my only Zone 34 QSO of the contest. I did work
> all zones on all bands. Several multi-op stations claimed all zones
> on 40 and 20 M as did W3LPL on 15M.
> 
> 20M did not disappoint at the start with the band open to some
> degree in all directions; I made WAC including DP1POL in Antarctica
> in the first 17 minutes!
> 
> AF (Africa) signals were loud, logging all AF zones except 34 and 39
> by 0130 UTC. HS, JT, BV and BY were logged within the same 10
> minutes. Signals were loud from EU and Zone 17 (Asiatic Russia)
> around sunrise and again from 1800-2000 UTC. The northern EU
> stations were loud from 2100 UTC right through 0100 UTC Saturday
> evening along with East and some central Asians. I logged 37 Zones
> total missing 30, 34, and 39.
> 
> 15M: Wow the Europeans, worked almost a thousand QSO's total during
> my 24 hour total effort!  Both days featured good openings to EU
> Russia, but I never logged 17 just beyond the UA4 stations that
> called. Northern EU was in Saturday afternoon until at least 22Z via
> probable auroral Es and also on 20 M as noted. Saturday evening I
> worked YE1K (Indonesia), BY, DS4, 9M6NA and AH0K along with loud
> JA's.
> 
> 10M: I made only 223 QSO's vs. 915 last year. The band opened to EU
> both days, but almost entirely southern and western EU, never
> hearing zone 16. All of the AF zones except 34 were present and loud
> around 1645Z Sunday working 5R, ZD8, C92, D4, and three ZS stations.
> The band never opened well to the northern Caribbean while I was
> active due to the declining solar flux. Time spent there was
> interesting, but the Pacific and JA were tough.
> 
> Overall the low K index and solar flux around 100 provided very
> decent conditions except on 10 and 160 meters. The northern EU
> stations were treated to a great weekend compared to averages in
> November.
> 
> 73, Jeff N8II"
> 
> Thanks, Jeff! Great report.
> 
> Don't miss the ARRL 10 Meter Contest this weekend. Although solar
> activity isn't high, this contest is scheduled to take advantage of
> ionization from meteor trails during the Geminids meteor shower.
> 
> This year the peak of the shower should be late in the contest.
> 
> Look here for details:
> 
> http://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/earthskys-meteor-shower-guide#geminids
> 
> Note all the multipliers in Mexico you can work:
> 
> http://www.dxxe.org/concurso/xe-mults.pdf
> 
> Check this for rules and details:
> 
> http://www.arrl.org/10-meter
> 
> Back in the November 30 propagation bulletin, ARLP048, we mentioned
> Don, W9IXG and problems on 75 meters with his local/regional
> network. (http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP048/2015).
> I suggested that solar activity is low enough that it may not always
> support regional communications on 75 meters. In other words, the
> ionosphere directly overhead is not energized enough to reflect
> signals back to stations below.
> 
> Ted Leaf, K6HI of Kona, Hawaii suggests switching to 40 meters when
> 75 meters isn't working.
> 
> Ted wrote, "I am on our ARMY MARS net on 40, and it works well
> across all the islands. Our antenna heights on 40 are NVIS." In
> other words, he uses antennas on 40 meters that are low enough to
> support Near Vertical Incidence Skywave propagation.
> 
> http://kv5r.com/ham-radio/nvis-antennas/nvis-page-3/
> 
> Note that via links at the bottom of the page you can navigate back
> to page 1, or out to page 8 and beyond for more information on NVIS
> antennas and propagation.
> 
> W9IXG replied:
> 
> "Thanks for the recommendation. We will investigate using 40m during
> radio blackout conditions on 75m. Our net runs from 1100-1315 UT so
> finding an open frequency for that length of time could be a problem
> and I'll need to poll our 100+ members to see how many have access
> to 40m.
> 
> Our NWS weather net has been operating since 1964 on 75m and while
> we have seen short periods of time when we've had no propagation,
> we've never experienced several continuous months of poor-terrible
> conditions. That being said, conditions do seem to be improving as
> we move into the winter."
> 
> David Moore wrote:
> 
> "The sun is supposed to be entering a quiet period, but it's still
> showing signs of its 11-year peak of activity it reached in early
> 2014."
> 
> https://shar.es/1GmvKG
> 
> Always good for tips on aurora, David also sent this link concerning
> widespread observation of Aurora Borealis in both North America and
> Europe recently:
> 
> http://bit.ly/1SDjW5p
> 
> David also sent this:
> 
> http://bit.ly/1TF3SQT
> 
> Dennis Markel, N1IMW of Bedford, New Hampshire wrote:
> 
> "As you predicted, the ARRL 160 Meter Contest enjoyed very quiet
> conditions both nights - noise was at S1 to S2 on my FT1000mp here
> in Bedford.
> 
> Similar conditions existed for the CQ World Wide on 160 meters as
> well."
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar
> flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
> http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .
> 
> Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore
> the security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress
> the download.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 3 through 9 were 47, 25, 41, 38, 50,
> 58, and 77, with a mean of 48. 10.7 cm flux was 94.5, 97.6, 100.5,
> 102.2, 100.7, 111.2, and 108.8, with a mean of 102.2.  Estimated
> planetary A indices were 4, 5, 16, 24, 20, 11, and 8, with a mean of
> 9.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 4, 14, 26, 16, 9, and
> 6, with a mean of 6.6.
> NNNN
> /EX