[SFDXA] ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP035
> ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP35
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 35  ARLP035
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  August 28, 2015
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP035
> ARLP035 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> We saw just one new sunspot group (AR2403) over the reporting week
> (August 20 to 26), but it was a big one, directly facing Earth on
> August 23. Average daily sunspot numbers rose 32.3 points to 69.7,
> while average daily solar flux increased 28.7 points to 119.7.
> 
> Another new sunspot appeared on August 27, numbered 2405.
> 
> The average daily planetary A index dropped from 21.4 to 14.7,
> compared to the previous seven days. The most active days were
> August 23 and 26 when planetary A index was 28 and 30, caused by
> streams of solar wind.
> 
> At 0012 UTC on August 27 Australia's Space Weather Services issued a
> geomagnetic warning. They warned that increased geomagnetic activity
> is expected on August 27 and 28 due to a high speed wind stream
> coming from a coronal hole. On August 27 expect quiet to unsettled
> conditions with active to minor storm periods, and on August 28 look
> for active to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 110 on August 28 and 29, 105 on August 30,
> 100 on August 31, 95 on September 1 to 3, 100 on September 4 and 5,
> 95 on September 6 to 9, then 90, 85, 95 and 100 on September 10 to
> 13, 105 on September 14 to 19, 120 on September 20 and 21 and 125 on
> September 22 to 24. Solar flux values drop below 100 on October 3 to
> 9.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 18, 12, and 8 on August 28 to 30, 5
> on August 31 through September 1, then 12, 20, 15, 10 and 8 on
> September 2 to 6, then 5 on September 7 to 11, then 12 on September
> 12, 15 on September 13 and 14, then 5, 10, 5, 8 and 20 on September
> 15 to 19, and 28, 20, 12, 18, 12 and 8 on September 20 to 25, and 5
> on September 26 to 28.
> 
> F. K. Janda, OK1HH sent his weekly geomagnetic forecast. He predicts
> quiet to active conditions August 28, quiet to unsettled August 29,
> quiet on August 30, mostly quiet August 31 through September 1,
> quiet to active September 2, active to disturbed September 3, quiet
> to unsettled September 4 and 5, mostly quiet September 6 and 7,
> quiet to unsettled September 8 to 10, quiet to active September 11,
> active to disturbed September 12, quiet to active September 13,
> quiet to unsettled September 14, quiet to active September 15 and
> 16, mostly quiet September 17, quiet to unsettled September 18,
> active to disturbed September 19, mostly quiet September 20 and 21,
> quiet to active September 22, and active to disturbed September 23.
> 
> OK1HH expects increases in solar wind on August 28 and 29, September
> 1 to 5, 10 and 11, 16 to 20, (although 16 and 17 is less certain),
> and September 23.
> 
> NASA issued a new commentary for the current sunspot cycle, this
> time with the new V2.0 sunspot numbers, which read higher than the
> old standard. Historic numbers are also being revised around this
> new standard.
> 
> You can read it at http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml .
> 
> Using the new numbering system, the maximum of 101 in late 2013 was
> revised upward from 72, and the peak of 116.4 in April 2014 was
> increased from 81.9.
> 
> Don't forget, the Autumnal Equinox is on Wednesday, September 23,
> 2015 at 0822 UTC, ushering in the Fall DX season.
> 
> Dick Bingham, W7WKR of Stehekin, Washington sent an interesting link
> concerning over-the- horizon HF radar operating in Virginia:
> 
> https://cryptome.org/2015-info/navy-rothr/navy-rothr.htm
> 
> Jimmy Mahuron, K9JWJ in Salem, Indiana had some observations on
> daytime regional net operations on 40 and 75 meters.
> 
> "40 meters (7.191 MHZ) on the RV Service Net was made difficult by
> the G2 Geomagnetic Storm this morning (August 27), from net time
> which is 7 to 9 AM local time (1100 to 1300 UTC).
> 
> 3.74 MHz was much quieter than 7.191 MHz and WWV was very light on
> 10 MHz and not audible at times.
> 
> 3.74 MHz was relatively quiet at the home QTH but just the reverse
> for other hams on frequency. The relays on 7.191 MHz made the net
> possible and if not for the relays would be virtually impossible.
> Thanks to all on the RV Service Net."
> 
> The geomagnetic storm that Jimmy mentioned produced some visible
> aurora. See http://wapo.st/1IlquhG and http://wapo.st/1PyL2c0 for
> reports from the Washington Post weather blog.
> 
> David Moore sent another interesting article, this time about
> coronal heating. See http://bit.ly/1LwgPMZ .
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar
> flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
> http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .
> 
> Click on "Download this file" to download the archive and ignore the
> security warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress
> download. I've had better luck with Firefox than IE.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for August 20 through 26 were 68, 78, 72, 93, 71,
> 61, and 45, with a mean of 69.7. 10.7 cm flux was 102.8, 110, 116.9,
> 133.1, 127.7, 121.2, and 126.2, with a mean of 119.7.  Estimated
> planetary A indices were 13, 6, 9, 28, 8, 9, and 30, with a mean of
> 14.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 6, 8, 23, 7, 8, and
> 19, with a mean of 11.7.
> NNNN
> /EX