[SFDXA] ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034
> ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP34
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34  ARLP034
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  August 21, 2015
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP034
> ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Solar activity declined over the past reporting week, August 13 to
> 19.  Average daily sunspot numbers went from 82.3 during the
> previous seven days, to 37.4 in the most recent period.
> 
> Average daily solar flux also declined over the same two weeks, from
> a mean of 112.4 to 91.  Average planetary A index went from 11.7 in
> the previous week to 21.4 in the recent seven days.  Activity over
> August 15 to 17 drove these numbers higher, with planetary A index
> at 44, 36 and 27 during those three days.  This was caused by a CME,
> a coronal mass ejection.
> 
> The latest predicted solar flux from NOAA/USAF over the near term is
> 105 and 110 on August 21 and 22, 115 on August 23 and 24 then 110,
> 115, 110 and 100 on August 25 to 28, 95 on August 29 through
> September 2, 100 on September 3 and 4, 105 on September 5, 100 on
> September 6 and 7, then 95 and 90 on September 8 and 9, and 85 on
> September 10 to 18.  Solar flux then rises to 100 after September
> 29.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 12 on August 21 and 22, 28 on August
> 23, then 12, 8, 12 and 14 on August 24 to 27, 10 on August 28 and
> 29, 5 on August 30 through September 1, then 12, 22, 15 and 12 on
> September 2 to 5, 10 on September 6 and 7, then 8 on September 8 and
> 9, 5 on September 10 and 11, then 10, 20 and 15 on September 12 to
> 14, 5 on September 15 and 16 and 8 on September 17 and 18.
> 
> OK1MGW sent a geomagnetic forecast for August 21 to September 16. He
> sees quiet to unsettled conditions August 21 and 22, quiet to active
> August 23, quiet to unsettled August 24, mostly quiet August 25, and
> active to disturbed August 26 (although he is unsure of the
> reliability of that prediction).
> 
> On August 27 and 28 he sees quiet to active conditions, quiet to
> unsettled August 29 and 30, mostly quiet August 31 through September
> 1, quiet to active September 2, active to disturbed September 3,
> quiet to active September 4, mostly quiet September 5 to 8, quiet
> September 9 and 10, mostly quiet September 11, quiet to unsettled
> September 12 to 15 and quiet to active September 16.  He expects
> increases in solar wind August 23, 25 to 28 and September 1 to 4.
> 
> At 0636 UTC on August 19 Australia's Space Weather Services released
> a geomagnetic disturbance warning, which said, "A large Coronal Hole
> (CH 683) is located in the solar Northern Hemisphere and is taking
> geoeffective position.  A high speed solar wind stream emanating
> from CH 683 is driving a Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR) and
> this will affect Earth's geomagnetic environment over the next 1 to
> 2 days.  Minor geomagnetic storms could occur in the high latitude
> regions and possibly extend into the mid latitudes.  The aurora may
> be visible from the southern parts of Australia at the local night
> hours on 19 and 20 August."
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK of Kansas wrote: "A surprising amount of late season
> sporadic E propagation on 50 MHz this third week of August.
> 
> Six meters was open for strong sporadic E the afternoon and evening
> of August 16.  In addition to strong single hop, some double hop
> E-skip was noted by W9RM DM58 to FM18, and K1TOL FN44 to N3AIU in
> DM45 around 0200z August 17.
> 
> The next day and afternoon sporadic E appeared again.  This time
> multi-hop Es spanned the Atlantic Ocean between North America and
> Europe.
> 
> CT1HZE IM57 worked into W5, W9 and W0 around 1600z, then again to
> the Midwest starting at 2245z on 6 meters.  N0LL EM09 and KQ0J EN11
> worked CT1HZE around 2315z.  KQ0J was using just a single loop
> antenna.  I did not hear CT1HZE in eastern Kansas, but picked up
> W7LFB on 50.160 MHz in very rare DN83.  Finally N0LL also worked a
> rare grid, VE9IQ FN67 for Larry's last grid to complete the FFMA
> (Fred Fish Memorial Award) at 2327z.
> 
> The geomagnetic field had been active all weekend due to a CME
> impact August 15, which caused a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm
> and bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.  The storm persisted as
> a G1-class through August 17, perhaps enhancing sporadic E
> conditions."
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of
> the numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of
> past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar
> flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
> http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .
> 
> Click on "Download this file" to download the archive and ignore the
> security warning about file format.  Pop-up blockers may suppress
> download. I've had better luck with Firefox than IE.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for August 13 through 19 were 51, 46, 33, 32, 20,
> 44, and 36, with a mean of 37.4. 10.7 cm flux was 94.8, 93.2, 89.4,
> 85.6, 87, 88.7, and 98.2, with a mean of 91.  Estimated planetary A
> indices were 11, 4, 44, 36, 27, 9, and 19, with a mean of 21.4.
> Estimated mid- latitude A indices were 14, 4, 24, 27, 27, 10, and
> 18, with a mean of 17.7.
> NNNN
> /EX