[SFDXA] ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033
> ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP33
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33  ARLP033
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  August 14, 2015
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP033
> ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Solar activity is still soft, although sunspot numbers and solar
> flux both increased this week.  Average daily sunspot numbers for
> August 6 to 12 increased from 70.3 to 82.3, compared to the previous
> seven days, and average daily solar flux went from 104.5 to 112.4.
> Geomagnetic activity was moderate.
> 
> Predicted solar flux for the near term is 95 on August 14 and 15, 90
> on August 16 to 21, 95 on August 22, 100 on August 23 to 26, 105 on
> August 27 and 28, 110 on August 29 to 31, and then peaking at 115 on
> September 1 to 7.  Solar flux drops below 100 on September 13 to 18.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 5 on August 14 and 15, 25 on August
> 16, 18 on August 17, 8 on August 18, 5 on August 19 and 20, 10 on
> August 21 and 22, 12 on August 23, 10 on August 24, 5 on August 25
> and 26, 12 on August 27, 10 on August 28 and 29, 5 on August 30
> through September 1, then 12, 22 and 15 on September 2 to 4, then
> 20, 22, 12 and 8 on September 5 to 8, and 5 on September 9 to 12.
> 
> F. K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group predicts
> quiet geomagnetic conditions on August 14, mostly quiet August 15,
> quiet to unsettled August 16, quiet to active August 17, active to
> disturbed August 18, quiet to unsettled August 19 and 20, quiet
> August 21, quiet to unsettled August 22 to 25, active to disturbed
> August 26, quiet to active August 27, quiet to unsettled August 28
> to 30, mostly quiet on September 1, active to disturbed September 2,
> quiet to active September 3 and 4, mostly quiet September 5 to 7,
> quiet to active September 8 and quiet on September 9.
> 
> He expects an increase in solar wind on August 15 to 17, 25 to 27,
> August 31 to September 1, and September 5 and 6.  OK1HH says the
> August 15 to 17 increase is less probable when compared to
> subsequent dates.
> 
> The Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic
> disturbance warning at 0147 UTC on August 14.  The warning said a
> partial halo CME observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 1448 UTC on August
> 12 associated with the long duration B7.0 flare and the filament
> eruption from the southwest quadrant is expected to cause a glancing
> blow early in the UTC day on August 16.  Expect periods of unsettled
> to active levels in Australian region with chance of isolated
> periods of minor storms at higher latitudes.
> 
> Richard Camp, WA7VGN lives in Las Vegas, Nevada (DM26jg) and sent a
> message titled "6 meter meteor scatter" about conditions on August
> 12.  Six meters was wide open when he made a contact on 50.125 MHz
> using SSB.  But when they tried to move off that frequency, it took
> four attempts on different frequencies to find a clear spot to talk.
> Richard said the band sounded like 20 meters at times with S9
> signals all around.  The next day six meters sounded dead.
> 
> I don't recall if we've looked at these bulletins before, from the
> American Association of Variable Star Observers.
> 
> https://www.aavso.org/solar-bulletin
> 
> Here is a recent monthly issue, from March 2015:
> 
> https://www.aavso.org/sites/default/files/solar_bulletin/AAVSO_SB_2015_03.pdf
> 
> They have interesting information on Sudden Ionospheric
> Disturbances, sunspot counts and solar flares.
> 
> Note the startling difference between current bulletins and one from
> over 60 years ago:
> 
> https://www.aavso.org/sites/default/files/solar_bulletin/AAVSO_SB_1952_03.pdf
> 
> Issues of this bulletin online go back 70 years, to 1945.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of
> the numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of
> past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar
> flux and planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
> http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .
> 
> Click on "Download this file" to download the archive and ignore the
> security warning about file format.  Pop-up blockers may suppress
> download.  I've had better luck with Firefox than IE.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for August 6 through 12 were 80, 95, 92, 87, 67, 87,
> and 68, with a mean of 82.3.  10.7 cm flux was 121.6, 121.6, 121,
> 114.5, 106.2, 102.8, and 99.2, with a mean of 112.4.  Estimated
> planetary A indices were 11, 20, 12, 10, 9, 8, and 12, with a mean
> of 11.7.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 12, 17, 15, 10, 13,
> 8, and 12, with a mean of 12.4.
> NNNN
> /EX