[SFDXA] ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Apr 10 17:27:39 EDT 2015

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP015
> ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP15
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 15  ARLP015
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  April 10, 2015
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP015
> ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Solar activity continues to weaken.  Average daily sunspot numbers
> dropped 27.8 points to 50.1 on April 2 to 8, compared to the previous
> seven days.  Average daily solar flux declined 17.3 points to 118.4
> over the same period.
> 
> The latest prediction has solar flux at 115 on April 10 to 16, 110
> on April 17, 145 on April 18 and 19, 135 on April 20, 130 on April
> 21 and 22, 125 on April 23, 120 on April 24, and 125 on April 25 and
> 26.  Solar flux goes down to 115 on April 30 through May 2, then
> rises to 145 on May 7 to 10.
> 
> The same prediction has planetary A index at 15 and 8 on April 10
> and 11, 5 on April 12 to 16, 12 on April 17, 20 on April 18 and 19,
> 12 on April 20 and 21, 8 on April 22 to 24, 25 on April 25, 29 on
> April 26 and 27, then 15, 12, 18 and 12 on April 28 through May 1,
> and 8 on May 2 and 3.
> 
> These predictions are revised daily, and come from 45-day forecasts
> at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ . I am also now
> making available my archives of these predictions, with planetary A
> index at 
> http://www.filedropper.com/filemanager/public.php?service=filest=be2a0a69fb6392907dc3d9a017dcace1 
> and solar flux at 
> http://www.filedropper.com/filemanager/public.php?service=filest=326dd41340bab1066cf91d13df36b8fd . 
> These are Microsoft Excel spreadsheets, and if you don't have that 
> program, you can download a free Excel Viewer at 
> http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/download/details.aspx?id=10 .
> 
> I hope to update these as often as once daily. You will see how the
> solar flux forecasts have been weakening over time.
> 
> OK1HH predicts the geomagnetic field will be mostly quiet April 10
> to 12, active to disturbed April 13, disturbed April 14, active to
> disturbed April 15, quiet to active April 16, active to disturbed
> April 17, quiet to unsettled April 18, quiet to active April 19,
> quiet on April 20, quiet to unsettled April 21, mostly quiet April
> 22, quiet to unsettled April 23, mostly quiet April 24, quiet to
> active April 25 and 26, quiet April 27, mostly quiet April 28,
> active to disturbed April 29, and quiet to unsettled April 30
> through May 1.
> 
> At 2346 UTC on April 8, Australia's IPS Radio and Space Services
> issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning for April 9 and 10, due to
> a CME and solar wind from a coronal hole.  Geomagnetic conditions
> may be at active levels over the two days.
> 
> The Japan International CW DX Contest is this weekend. Check it out
> at http://jidx.org/ .
> 
> Rich Zwirko, K1HTV wrote, "Despite the relatively low solar flux
> number in the low 100's there is still life in the higher HF bands.
> In the past few days conditions to deep Asia have been excellent. On
> Tuesday morning April 7th, with 100 Watts and a wire antenna from my
> VA QTH, I worked HS0LSE and heard E21EJC, both in Thailand on 12
> meter CW. I moved to 15 meters and in less than an hour, with 100
> watts and a triband yagi I was able to work:
> 
> CW  - V85TL - Brunei 
> SSB - HS1JNB - Thailand 
> SSB - AT150ITU - India (special call) 
> CW  - HS3XVP - Thailand 
> SSB - HS0ZIN - Thailand 
> SSB - HS0ZLE - Thailand 
> SSB - VU2DED - India 
> 
> Other stations heard coming through included 9M2MSL, DU1/JA3FJE,
> XU7TZG on SSB and XV5HS on RTTY. The polar path was great between
> 1530 and 1630Z that day. The next morning, April 8th, I was only
> able to get down to the shack for a half hour. Between 1400 and
> 1430Z I worked three more stations in Thailand, E21EJC on 12M as
> well as HS4ROI and HS0ZCW on 15M SSB. Conditions were so good that
> CO2IR in Cuba, running QRP 10 Watts, worked HS0ZCW in Thailand.
> Later that afternoon I was able to work all 6 continents in 30
> minutes!
> 
> As UTC April 9th started, at 0001Z on 20M CW I snagged JT1AA/5 plus
> a number of Asiatic Russian stations. Fifteen hours later JT1AA/5 in
> Mongolia with a booming signal was worked again, this time on 15
> meters.
> 
> Around the vernal equinox, despite the low SFI numbers, with
> relatively low 'A' and 'K' indexes, conditions over the polar routes
> can be great.
> 
> Enjoy the DX while the conditions are good as we are now on the
> downward slope of this solar cycle."
> 
> On April 8, Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI wrote: "Don't know if you have
> seen this yet, but in case you haven't, it's some new research that
> suggests that the sun has 'seasons' of about two years that affect
> the activity within a solar cycle:
> 
> http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/15037/sun-experiences-seasonal-changes-new-research-finds
> 
> Ted Leaf, K6HI reported a similar article:
> 
> http://earthsky.org/space/scientists-report-seasonal-variability-on-sun
> 
> I also found this:
> 
> http://www.dailycamera.com/news/boulder/ci_27861091/new-study-from-boulders-ncar-details-suns-seasonal
> 
> TI3/W7RI continues:
> 
> Not a lot to report here on HF propagation; haven't been on HF much
> due to health issues, and only getting on six meters when the
> squelch breaks. But there has been a bit of activity on six.
> 
> Six meters has been showing the usual equinox-related TEP activity
> here in the low magnetic latitudes, with nightly openings into South
> America from here in Costa Rica and the Caribbean.  There have been
> no Es openings into the States for quite some time from here, but
> the last several days have seen some afternoon TEP openings from the
> States into South America, as usual going right over our heads, but
> with nothing to show for it here on the ground. With the fellas in
> the States reporting S9+30 signals, there hasn't been even a trace
> on the waterfall here.
> 
> There was a spectacular F2 opening into Iberia and northwest Africa
> a couple of weeks ago from here, and many of us got several new ones
> during an opening that lasted several hours. It was my first success
> in working Europe from here with my modest 90 watts and a 5/8
> vertical, and I got four new countries in just one opening. Towards
> the end of the opening, I nailed Western Sahara for an all-time new
> one (never expected that to happen on 6 meters!), as did Mike,
> TI5XP. Phil, TI5/N5BEK heard him, but wasn't able to complete a Q
> before he was gone into the noise. The 'tragic' band strikes again!"
> 
> Spaceweather.com reports that early today, April 10, a G2 Class
> geomagnetic storm erupted.  "Northern Lights spilled across the
> Canadian border into the USA, where auroras were photographed as far
> south as Colorado. At the time of this alert, storm conditions are
> still underway with a possibility for more storming when a belated
> CME arrives later in the day. Visit http://spaceweather.com for more
> information and updates."
> 
> At ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DGD.txt I can see that the
> first two of eight three hour periods today (April 10) have a
> planetary K index of 5 and 6, which is high.
> 
> David Moore sends this article and image from Southern Iceland:
> 
> http://www.esa.int/spaceinimages/Images/2015/04/Colourful_cosmic_curtains
> 
> G3CJC has a weekly report on 10 meter activity from England:
> 
> http://www.southgatearc.org/bands/10metres/2015/april/april_09.htm
> 
> He even has some sports commentary at the end on soccer, but over
> there they call it football, just as the rest of the world does.
> 
> Mike Carter, K8CN of Durham, New Hampshire sent this article from
> NBC about lightning:
> 
> http://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/bright-idea-map-shows-where-lightning-strikes-most-worldwide-n336806
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for April 2 through 8 were 31, 29, 68, 66, 78, 39,
> and 40, with a mean of 50.1.  10.7 cm flux was 121.3, 119.9, 122.4,
> 122.2, 125.6, 111.2, and 106, with a mean of 118.4.  Estimated
> planetary A indices were 13, 14, 12, 8, 7, 5, and 4, with a mean of
> 9. Estimated mid- latitude A indices were 22, 14, 10, 8, 8, 6, and
> 4, with a mean of 10.3.
> NNNN
> /EX