[SFDXA] ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP036
> ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP36
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 36  ARLP036
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  September 5, 2014
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP036
> ARLP036 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Sunspot activity continued to weaken over the past seven days
> (August 28 through September 3). Average daily sunspot numbers
> declined from 113.4 to 85.1, and average daily solar flux went from
> 130.5 to 126.7. Geomagnetic activity was up recently, with average
> planetary A index increasing from 7.4 to 14.7, nearly double the
> values from the August 21 to 27 period week earlier.
> 
> The latest predicted solar flux values are 150 on September 5, 155
> on September 6 and 7, 150 on September 8, 145 on September 9 to 11,
> 130 on September 12, 115 on September 13, 110 on September 14 and
> 15, 120 on September 16, 130 on September 17 to 19, 135 on September
> 20 and 21, then 130, 125 and 120 on September 22 to 24, and 115 on
> September 25 and 26.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 8, 10, 20, and 15 on September 4 to
> 7, 8 on September 8 and 9, 5 on September 10 to 12, 8 on September
> 13, and 5 on September 14 to 24.
> 
> One encouraging sign is the GOES-15 X-Ray Background flux has risen
> over the past few days.  It was C1.2 on September 2 and C1.0 on
> September 3 and 4, and it hasn't had a C reading in quite some time.
> This is actually more significant than solar flux regarding effect
> on the ionosphere.  You can see the background flux daily at
> http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DSD.txt .  Checking the
> quarterly record, you can see that X-Ray background flux has not
> been this high since early July:
> 
> http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DSD.txt
> 
> OK1MGW expects geomagnetic conditions will be quiet to active
> September 5 and 6, quiet to unsettled September 7 and 8, mostly
> quiet September 9, quiet on September 10 to 12, quiet to unsettled
> September 13, active to disturbed September 14 and 15, mostly quiet
> September 16 and 17, quiet September 18 to 21, quiet to active
> September 22, active to disturbed September 23 and 24, quiet to
> unsettled September 25 and 26, quiet to active September 27 and 28,
> and quiet to unsettled September 29 and 30.
> 
> OK1MGW expects an increased solar wind on September 5 to 8, 14 and
> 15, 22 and 23 and 26 to 29.
> 
> An interesting article from the phys.org science news portal about
> sunspots is at http://phys.org/news/2014-09-clues-solar.html .
> 
> Carl Zelich, AA4MI of Chuluota, Florida reports very poor
> conditions. A week ago he reported that for the previous week he
> worked Y4/AI5P, 9A6W, EU3DN, S51DX, OK1IF, LY5O, 9K2HN, HK1N, and
> HA2NEP. He heard 3D2AC, and commented: "very sparse."
> 
> August has passed, so we can now look at our 3-month moving average
> of daily sunspot numbers. Average daily sunspot numbers for the
> three months ending August 31 was 109.2, the lowest since fall 2013.
> This last period was centered on July. For each of the three month
> periods in 2014 centered on January through July, the averages were
> 138.5, 146.4, 148.2, 129.6, 118.4, 112.8, and 109.2.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for August 28 through September 3 were 78, 73, 64,
> 90, 94, 105 and 92, with a mean of 85.1. 10.7 cm flux was 118.6,
> 120.1, 123.1, 124.8, 126.6, 136, and 138, with a mean of 126.7.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 21, 15, 15, 11, 10, and 10,
> with a mean of 14.7.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 17, 20,
> 11, 13, 12, 10, and 11, with a mean of 13.4.
> NNNN
> /EX