[SFDXA] ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

[Shelly Weil via SFDXA]

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Cathy Weil 

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> On Oct 31, 2014, at 3:20 PM, Bill <bmarx at bellsouth.net> wrote:
> 
> 
> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044
> ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP44
> QST de W1AW
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44  ARLP044
>> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  October 31, 2014
> To all radio amateurs
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP044
> ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Strong solar activity continued this week, with average daily
> sunspot numbers rising 36 points to 119.9 and average daily solar
> flux up 24 points to 198. The X-Ray background flux from GOES-15 has
> ranged from C1.2 to C2.6 since October 19. RWC Prague predicts a
> range from B2.0 to C1.5 from October 31 through November 6.
> 
> You can see daily X-ray flux at
> http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DSD.txt. It also shows for
> each day the number of new sunspot regions which appeared, and on
> October 30 there were four new regions and the sunspot number was
> 121. This is the highest number of new regions to appear on any day
> since August 14, when there were four, on December 31, 2013 when
> there were also four new ones, and August 7, 2013, and April 5 2013.
> Way back on January 4, 2013 five new regions appeared in one day.
> 
> If you are recording solar flux and sunspot data into a personal
> archive, you will be happy to know that the DRAO site in Penticton
> has their archive of solar flux data now current, and updated three
> times per day. You can find it at
> ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/daily_flux_values/fluxtable.txt
> and at http://www.spaceweather.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-eng.php for
> the html copy. The data has been updated infrequently over the past
> couple of months.
> 
> You can also download an update from
> http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp of the data file for Scott
> Craig's solar data plotting utility. A new data file through October
> 29, 2014 is now up. It replaces the April 3, 2014 file. You can
> update the data file weekly using Scott's program with new copies of
> this bulletin. This gives you daily solar flux and sunspot numbers
> stretching back over a quarter century, to January 1, 1989.
> 
> The Solar Data Plotting Utility only runs on the Windows operating
> system, on all versions through Windows Xp. I currently use it in Xp
> mode in Windows 7.
> 
> Our updated prediction has daily solar flux at 130 on October 31
> through November 2, 125 on November 3-4, 120 on November 5-7, 160 on
> November 8, 165 on November 9-10, 175 on November 11-12, then
> peaking at 200 on November 19-20, and reaching a low of 110 on
> December 12.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 12 on October 30, 8 on October 31
> through November 4, 12 on November 5, 8 on November 6-7, 5 on
> November 8-9, 8 on November 10-11, then 5 and 8 on November 12-13,
> 12 on November 14-15, then 22, 15 and 10 on November 16-18, and 8 on
> November 19-21.
> 
> OK1HH sees quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions on October 31,
> quiet conditions November 1, mostly quiet November 2, quiet to
> unsettled November 3, quiet on November 4, quiet to active November
> 5, active to disturbed November 6, mostly quiet November 7, quiet to
> unsettled November 8, quiet November 9, mostly quiet November 10-11,
> quiet to unsettled November 12, mostly quiet November 13-14, quiet
> to unsettled November 15, mostly quiet November 16, active to
> disturbed November 17, quiet to active November 18, quiet to
> unsettled November 19, mostly quiet November 20-22, quiet on
> November 23, quiet to active November 24, and back to quiet on
> November 25-26.
> 
> Conditions should be good this weekend for ARRL CW Sweepstakes. It
> begins at 2100 UTC Saturday, November 1 and runs until 0259 UTC
> Monday, but is limited to 24 hours. This is the weekend that
> Daylight Saving Time ends so for those of us on the West Coast, that
> actually runs from 2:00 PM PDT Saturday until 6:59 PM PST Sunday.
> UTC Time is constant, so don't worry about any notion of gaining an
> hour that the rest of the country considers when moving the clocks
> back by 60 minutes on Sunday at 2:00 AM local time.
> 
> The Phone weekend for ARRL Sweepstakes is two weeks later.
> 
> If you are not a contester, it might be fun to give out contacts to
> the bleary eyed hungry hordes in the last few hours of the event
> when things have quieted down and those still participating are
> desperate for new ones. You should get plenty of attention. For more
> details, check http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes.
> 
> Often late in the contest casual operators showing up this late may
> be confused about their ARRL Section, and give their state instead.
> For most states, this works, but in some states it is a bit more
> complicated. Check
> http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Awards%20Application%20Forms/WASmap_Color.pdf
> for a map, and you'll see that California is divided into nine
> sections.
> 
> For a more detailed description, check
> http://www.arrl.org/section-boundaries .
> 
> A week ago on October 24 Fred Honnold, KH7Y sent this: "Yesterday
> starting at 2200 UTC worked many W6 and W7 stations some were 20
> over S9 on 6 meters. I also worked TX, OK, NM, AZ and NV, all F2
> propagation. I was spotted by JA, BV during this opening on back
> scatter. Also many XE1, 2 and PY, LU, CX, ZP, CE worked and later on
> in the evening VK, DU, ZL, and KG6."
> 
> Today Fred reported: "6 meters has been open every day, good
> openings in the morning to South America, Some to the southern part
> of the mainland. So far this month W6, W7, W5, XE1, 2 and 3, HK,
> PJ4, CX, ZP, CP, LU, PY, CE, ZL, YJ0, VK, DU, 9M2, KG6, V73, FK8,
> E51, T30, JA. So October has been great on 6 meters from KH6.
> 
> "The Sun sure went crazy there for 6 days or so. Looks like it is
> going back to sleep. Will be interesting to see what next March,
> April will bring. Those long path QSOs are really fun to make."
> 
> James French, W8ISS of Lincoln Park, Michigan sent this message last
> Saturday: "I posted a picture I took last Thursday during the
> partial eclipse. Even for what I got, you can easily see Sunspot
> grouping 2192 there.
> 
> "See,
> http://spaceweathergallery.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=103902 .
> 
> "Taken with a Samsung M575 cell phone held up to the eyepiece of a
> 4-inch Meade Reflector."
> 
> An interesting article about magnetic reconnection converting
> magnetic energy into explosive particle energy, came from Jim
> Henderson, KF7E of Queen Creek, Arizona:
> 
> http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/10/scientists-reveal-physics-behind-space-weather/
> 
> Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI, wrote: "Here's an item that suggests
> recent research is explaining the mechanisms behind solar flares,
> and may make it possible to predict solar flares themselves, not
> just the probability of them."
> 
> http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141023131611.htm
> 
> On October 26 Scott Bidstrup also wrote, "Propagation here in the
> equatorial region has been much improved with the recent spate of
> solar activity - the recent series of flares from the giant sunspot
> region 2192 has raised the 304a radiation from the Sun, along with
> long-wave X-radiation, and the F2 layer has responded accordingly.
> The 10m PSK window has looked like the 20m window usually does -
> packed wall to wall with digimode signals, mostly Europeans, but
> with a lot of W4s and W5s as well. The rest of the upper HF bands
> have been similarly crowded. Sure is good to see all those strong
> signals after the recent doldrums.
> 
> "The presence of a lot of Stateside signals on 10m here has bode
> well for 6 meters - JAs working into LU, CX and CE have become
> almost a nightly occurrence. Remi, FK8CP, with his usual
> persistence, has been working a lot of stations throughout the
> Americas, Canada all the way to Chile, and there have been
> occasional contacts between VK/ZL stations and the west coast of the
> U.S. Last night, Remi's signal here in Costa Rica was an S9 for more
> than two hours on and off.
> 
> "6m transequatorial openings from the Caribbean and Central America
> into South America have been happening nightly, to the point where
> the activity has dropped off noticeably simply because of everyone
> having worked everyone else already - several times, in fact.
> Occasionally, openings have begun as early as ten in the morning
> till well past bedtime, on and off. On the DX maps, I've been seeing
> occasional 6m contacts ducted along the Transequatorial Anomaly, too
> - though, sadly, none have happened from here in Costa Rica. We've
> even had a few Es openings from here into Venezuela and the Windward
> Islands, though. Phil, TI5/N5BEK, reports hearing the PR8ZIX beacon
> from mid-morning until late in the day, almost every day. It's so
> frequent, he rarely bothers to even spot it anymore.
> 
> "73 from Costa Rica where it's finally drying out. The rainy season
> is ending. Thank goodness! I can get some antenna work done!"
> 
> More 6 meter news from Rich Zwirko, K1HTV: "On October 21, with the
> SFI hovering just below 200 we had some 6 Meter TEP to South
> America. From my FM18ap Virginia QTH I worked two stations in
> Uruguay, CX8DS on SSB and CX9AU on CW. Also heard were the LU2EE/B
> and LU7YSb CW beacons.
> 
> "The following UTC day, October 22nd will be one that I will long
> remember. I was chasing W1AW/7 and W1AW/8 on the HF bands when I
> noticed a DX Cluster spot from WZ8D in Ohio that he had just worked
> a New Caledonia station on 6 Meters. I tuned to 50.110 MHz and there
> was FK8CP on CW. A quick call and at 0324Z (11:24 EDT, Oct 21) FK8CP
> was in the K1HTV log. Remi was my 6M DXCC country #155. I quickly
> called W3LPL in MD and a few minutes later Frank worked FK8CP, as
> well as did his neighbor Bernie, W3UR, both in FM19.
> 
> "A few minutes later FK8CP, now on SSB, was on a different frequency
> calling CQ. I called Remi on SSB and he said, 'You are already in my
> log.' He continued calling CQ North America on both CW and SSB. His
> signal varied from just at the noise level to S4. Remi was last
> heard at my FM18ap Virginia QTH at 0415Z. In all, FK8CP was heard
> here, for 55 minutes!
> 
> "Later that same Oct. 22 UTC date around 2340Z I heard ZL1RS on CW
> for about 10 seconds. Dave, N4DB, who is 102 miles south of me heard
> ZL1RS for about 2 minutes and was able to work him. Thirty-five
> minutes later Dave also worked FK8CP. At that time I could hear
> nothing from FK8CP. Talk about the 6 Meter spotlight effect! The
> Magic Band can be that way.
> 
> "A few days later on October 25th on 6 Meters I worked CT1HZE and
> EA4SV. Not sure if it was F2 because I was also hearing the VO1SEP/B
> CW beacon at the same time, leading me to think that it may have
> been Es propagation. With the SFI varying from around 180 to 218 for
> over a week I wouldn't be surprised to see some loud E-W F2 skip
> coming into the Mid-Atlantic area in the next week or so. Hope so!"
> 
> And finally, Jon Jones, N0JK wrote, "One unusual occurrence this
> October has been the prevalence of sporadic-E propagation on 6
> meters. There has been sporadic-E on a majority of the days so far
> this month. A particularly intense Es opening on 6 meters took place
> on Monday morning October 27. Es was present over 4 hours from the
> Midwest states to New England, New York and New Jersey on 6 meters.
> The 8 watt N2GHR/B FN30 beacon 50.078 MHz was solid copy during this
> period for me in EM28, and K2MUB FN20 was 40 dB over S-9. This
> opening created some Es links to F2 earlier for stations in New
> England to Europe. Es was spotted between W1 and VO1, and then W1
> stations linked on to western Europe.
> 
> "On Wednesday evening (October 29 UTC), a sporadic-E cloud over
> western Nebraska set up an Es link from W8, W9 and W0 on via TEP to
> FK8CP on 6. Many northern 8, 9 and 0 stations were able to work New
> Caledonia that evening. W9RM DM58 heard the eastern stations via Es,
> he is on the great circle path from them on out to FK8. The October
> sporadic-E created interesting DX opportunities for many 6 meter
> DXers.
> 
> "Typically sporadic-E is very rare on 6 meters in October, only the
> month of March has less Es.
> 
> "To clarify I am referring to sporadic-E propagation on 50 MHz in
> the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. Not aurora associated Es,
> equatorial Es or in the southern hemisphere.
> 
> "I am unsure of any direct connection between the higher solar flux
> and solar activity and the sporadic-E occurrence. The higher solar
> flux did raise F2 MUFs and brought the TEP zone where 50 MHz signals
> may be propagated further north."
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for October 23 through 29 were 126, 147, 115, 138,
> 120, 109, and 84, with a mean of 119.9. 10.7 cm flux was 227.1,
> 217.8, 219.3, 216.6, 187.8, 167.2, and 150.4, with a mean of 198.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 10, 12, 14, 14, and 9,
> with a mean of 11.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 9, 9,
> 11, 15, 11, and 7, with a mean of 10.
> NNNN
> /EX
> 
> 
> 
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