[SFDXA] ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> ZCZC AP34
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34  ARLP034
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  August 22, 2014
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP034
> ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Solar indices and outlook are stronger this week. Average daily
> sunspot numbers rose 19.7 points to 114.6, while average daily solar
> flux increased 25.7 points to 138.8. Average daily estimated
> planetary A index dropped from 7.4 to 4.3. This compares the August
> 14 to 20 period against the previous seven days.
> 
> The day with the greatest geomagnetic activity was Tuesday, August
> 19 when the planetary A index was 17. This was caused by a weak CME,
> but according to Spaceweather.com the inner magnetic structure
> "contained a region of south pointing magnetism that partially
> cancelled Earth's north pointing magnetic field." This opened a
> crack in the magnetosphere, and solar wind poured through,
> triggering unexpectedly brilliant aurora.
> 
> The outlook for solar activity has improved. A week ago the average
> predicted solar flux for the next ten days, August 22 to 31, was 121.
> Now based on the Thursday, August 21 prediction the average solar
> flux for the same period has risen to 149.5, a robust increase of
> 28.5 points.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 140 on August 22 to 26, 150 on August 27, 160
> on August 28 to 30, and 165 on August 31. Flux values then drop to 125,
> 130, 125, 120, 115 and 110 on September 1 to 6, 105 on September 7 to 9,
> 100 on September 10 and 110 on September 11 and 12. It meanders a bit,
> and then rises to 140 on September 24 before declining again.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 22, 5 on August 23 to 28, 8
> on August 29, then 5, 12, 10 and 8 on August 30 through September 2,
> 5 on September 3 to 5, 8 on September 6 and 7, 10 on September 8, 5 on
> September 9 to 14, 12 and 14 on September 15 and 16, then 8 on September
> 17 and 18, and 5 on September 19 to 23.
> 
> F. K. Janda, OK1HH predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to
> unsettled August 22, active to disturbed August 23, quiet to
> unsettled August 24, mostly quiet August 25, quiet to active August
> 26 to 29, active to disturbed August 30, quiet to active August 31,
> mostly quiet September 1 and 2, quiet to unsettled September 3, quiet
> September 4 and 5, quiet to unsettled September 6, quiet September 7,
> mostly quiet September 8 and quiet to unsettled September 9.
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK reports a late season e-skip opening on August 16
> around 0015 UTC. AA6YQ (FN42) was very loud on 6 meters across the
> south and Midwest.
> 
> Several stations in Washington State heard the VE8WD six meter
> beacon on 50.02 MHz from Yellowknife, NW Territories at 0220 to 0249
> UTC on August 20. The distance was about 1100 miles.
> 
> Check out the DX maps at http://n3tuq.com/dxmap.php . You can look
> at real time contacts on 10, 6 or 2 meters, giving a picture of
> propagation around the world. Right now at 1300 UTC the sun is
> rising over the West Coast of North America, and I am looking at a
> large number of 6 meter contacts all over Europe. I switched to 10
> meters, and I can see contacts between Europe and Ethiopia,
> Thailand, Algeria and Saudi Arabia.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for August 14 through 20 were 108, 119, 99, 121, 92,
> 84, and 89, with a mean of 114.6. 10.7 cm flux was 102.7, 113.1,
> 112, 115.1, 110.6, 111, and 118, with a mean of 138.8.  Estimated
> planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 7, 5, 17, and 6, with a mean of
> 4.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 6, 4, 9, 5, 14, and
> 7, with a mean of 3.7.
> NNNN
> /EX