[SFDXA] Sun Mysteriously Goes All Quiet Just When Its Activity Should Be Highest

[Bill]

Almost every measure of solar activity flatlined over the weekend. The 
event, though not unprecedented, is odd considering that our local star 
has just passed what is supposed to be the peak of its solar cycle, when 
activity is at its highest.

"It really underscores this solar cycle playing out as being pretty 
benign," said Robert Rutledge, lead of the forecast office at the 
NOAA/National Weather Service Space Weather Prediction Center 
<http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/>. "This has been by any measure a really 
pretty quiet cycle, and I think we shouldn't expect the second half to 
be any different."

Measurements of the sun's X-ray activity flatlined over the weekend. 
/NOAA/GOES 15/

The sun goes through a natural 11-year variation called the solar cycle 
<http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/03/rethinking-space-weather/>. 
Periods of high activity generally coincide with increased numbers of 
sunspots and energetic bursts such as flares and coronal mass ejections 
<http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/spaceweather/index.html#.UjdKBWR4YzU>. 
Before it started, scientists' predictions for this solar cycle ranged 
from very eventful to rather lackluster.

"Quite frankly, we're not very good at solar cycle predictions," said 
Rutledge.

Considering that this solar cycle is the weakest in more than a century 
<http://www.space.com/21937-sun-solar-weather-peak-is-weak.html>, some 
researchers are already predicting that it could be the start of an ebb 
in overall activity, with several more low cycles ahead. The website 
spaceweather.com, which monitors the sun's activity, also suggested that 
this lull could signal a double-peaked solar cycle 
<http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=16&month=09&year=2013> 
whose valley we are currently experiencing. But Rutledge pointed out 
that our fundamental understanding of how the sun works is still 
incomplete. The sun could remain quiet or an uptick in activity, 
including the possibility of extreme space weather 
<http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/02/massive-solar-flare/>, could 
come at any time.

This weekend's low activity is within the variation that the sun 
normally experiences and scientists don't really know what its 
underlying cause might be. A particular snow storm on Earth can be 
attributed to moving weather fronts, said Rutledge, but we don't have 
that detailed of an understanding of what drives changes on the sun. 
Within a week or so, solar activity should return to normal.


http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/09/sun-all-quiet/