[SFDXA] ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040
> ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP40
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40  ARLP040
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  October 4, 2013
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP040
> ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Solar activity weakened again, with the average daily sunspot number
> dropping from 75.6 to 52, and average daily solar flux down three
> points to 106.6, when compared to the previous week, September
> 19-25.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity was up, with planetary A index at 39 on October
> 2, mid-latitude A index at 29, and the high latitude college A index
> at 64.
> 
> The cause of the upset was a coronal mass ejection barreling toward
> Earth at 2,000,000 MPH on September 30, triggering a G2 class
> geomagnetic storm on October 2 and aurora displays well south of the
> Canadian border.
> 
> Predicted solar flux values are 110 on October 4-5, 105 and 100 on
> October 6-7, 95 on October 8-13, 100 on October 14-15, 105 on
> October 16-18, and 110 on October 19-24.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 20 on October 3, 8 on October 4, 5 on
> October 5-9, 8 on October 10-11, 5 on October 12-13, then 8, 10 and
> 8 on October 14-16, 5 on October 17-20, 10 on October 21, and 5 on
> October 22-26.
> 
> OK1CC predicts a quiet to unsettled geomagnetic field on October 4,
> mostly quiet October 5, quiet on October 6, quiet to active October
> 7-10, quiet to unsettled October 11, quiet on October 12-13, quiet
> to active October 14, active to disturbed on October 15-16, quiet to
> active October 17-18, quiet October 19-20, active to disturbed
> October 21, mostly quiet October 22, quiet October 23-27, quiet to
> active October 28, and active to disturbed October 29-30.
> 
> I've been keeping an archive of the 45-day solar flux and planetary
> A index predictions from NOAA/NASA, and it is interesting to see how
> they change over time. Conditions 30-45 days out must be pretty hard
> to predict, but I've noticed that the outlook seems to be
> increasingly pessimistic recently, suggesting weakening sunspot
> activity.
> 
> For instance, the 45 day prediction for September 16 began on August
> 2, with a solar flux of 125. Then over time it drifted around,
> within a few days down to 105 (August 5-11), then back up to 125 on
> August 19-25, then the prediction begins to wither to 115 August 26
> to September 8, declining again to 100 (September 9-12), then in the
> few days before the target date September 13-15 at 95, which was
> right on the nose with the end result being 94.5. This of course
> rounds up to 95, the whole number used in the prediction.
> 
> I keep seeing predictions with solar flux values dropping below 100,
> even down to 90. Take a look at,
> http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html.
> 
> You can also see my own longer term archive in spreadsheet format at
> http://snurl.com/27xfhcg. Password is k7ra. This particular archive
> goes back to April 19.
> 
> The column on the left shows the dates of the forecasts, and across
> the top are the dates that the data correspond to. The numbers in
> blue across the bottom are the actual flux values recorded on the
> dates for each column, or when the column and row intersect on the
> same date.
> 
> A similar spreadsheet for the planetary A index can be downloaded
> from http://snurl.com/27xfgtc. Same password, k7ra.
> 
> Today we have an addition to our three-month moving average data
> set, and I am now convinced that we may have already passed the now
> classic double-peak for Cycle 24 that some have predicted based on
> activity in previous cycles. As others have suggested, those peaks
> seem to be clearly centered around October to November 2011, and
> April to May 2013. For the 3-month period ending September 30 the
> average was 77.4
> 
> Starting from a three month average centered on January 2011 (data
> from December 1, 2010 through February 28, 2011), averages for that
> year were 35.3, 55.7, 72.3, 74.4, 65.9, 61.5, 63, 79.6, 98.6, 118.8,
> 118.6 and 110.
> 
> For 2012 it was 83.3, 73.7, 71.2, 87.3, 91.5, 96.5, 91.9, 89.9,
> 81.2, 82.3, 74.4, and 82.8.
> 
> So far in 2013 the averages are 73.6, 80.7, 85.2, 106.4, 106.4,
> 97.5, 85.6 and 77.4.
> 
> Some solar scientists suggest a possible subsequent peak in 2014. I
> certainly hope so, but have no way of knowing. Our nearest star
> remains baffling and full of surprises. The body of knowledge and
> available tools expanded tremendously over the past couple of
> decades, yet accurate predictions elude us. Remember a few years ago
> when one of the more optimistic scientific papers suggested a
> record-breaking Cycle 24, perhaps approaching the levels of Cycle 19
> in the late 1950s? The future looked bright.
> 
> There is this interesting theory that the first cycle following the
> beginning of any century is weak. Could there also be a 100 year
> recurrence of Cycle 19? Tell your children or grandchildren. That
> would be over a century after my birth, and planning for it now
> would be a fool's errand.
> 
> Thanks to Jimmy Mahuron, K9JWJ for reminding us about the 2007 book
> by Stuart Clark, "The Sun Kings: The unexpected tragedy of Richard
> Carrington and the tale of how modern astronomy began." I suggested
> it in this bulletin several years ago, checked it out from the
> library, but it joined the tall stack of non-fiction to read and I
> finally returned it. I just reserved it again, and if you happen to
> be in Seattle, I see it is currently on display at the Green Lake
> Branch of Seattle Public Library. I guess that our librarians
> selected a number of books about astronomy or the Sun for a themed
> display, but these are never locked in display cases. These books
> can be picked up, perused and even checked out.
> 
> Jimmy also noted on September 27 that 40 meters was good for him the
> previous Saturday, September 21.
> 
> Emil Pocock, W3EP reported on September 29, "It is a bit early in
> the Fall DX season and solar activity is still low, but 10 meters
> has come alive. The band opened to Western Europe at the unusually
> late time of 1920-2000 (I assume he means UTC, rather than local
> time) September 13. There were teaser openings to Europe on the
> mornings of September 17, 18, and 21. I was surprised to work
> 3B8/G0TSM on the September 18 among the European callers.
> 
> "The first significant opening from here in Connecticut was on
> September 22 and then every morning to September 29. Eastern
> European stations dominated, especially UR and UA. Interesting
> stations worked included FR5FC, HZ1SK, FH4VOS and OD5ZZ on September
> 24, all on SSB. The following day, snagged on CW 5A1AL and SU9AF. On
> September 25, logged 4Z5SG, 4Z5ML, ZA1G, 4K9W and UP5OA.  Stations
> worked on the September 27 included some real surprises, including
> EW8O and EW3AN (EW not worked on previous days), but also VU3KPL and
> XV4Y. XV4Y was worked on direct path over the pole. What a thrill to
> hear Vietnam through the European callers!  Eastern Europeans
> continued to dominate QSOs on September 28 and 29, including UA9XO.
> 
> "Hope this bodes well for the rest of the Fall season, even if solar
> activity remains sluggish."
> 
> Hope so too, Emil, and thanks for sending an uplifting counterpoint
> to my gloomy assessment earlier in this bulletin.
> 
> Jim Smith, K3RTU of Aston, Pennsylvania wrote on October 2 about
> another hike in one of his favorite parks, taking along a portable
> HF radio and antenna, of course: "Despite the less than desirable
> predicted solar flux for Monday September 30, I went on a hike in
> Ridley Creek State Park here in Southeast Pennsylvania (FM29). In
> one of my favorite spots I tried a different antenna instead of my
> trusty Buddistick vertical. I was using an end fed wire of 30' with
> a 9:1 UNUN matching transformer. I got the end of the wire up into a
> tall tree at about a 50 degree angle and attached the other end with
> the matching transformer to a plastic tent peg. Then I ran the coax
> back to my KX3. I was running the KX3 with AA lithium batteries so I
> kept the power cut back to just under 3 watts. Even with this less
> simple setup I was able to work CO0CW in Havana and received a RST
> of 579 at about 1540 UTC on 17 meters. I wasn't hearing many
> station, however, so I tried 15 meters. I was delighted to then work
> SM5NZG near Stockholm at about 1620 UTC. I only received an RST of
> 539 from Heide, but was still able to chat for about 10 minutes.
> Heide's 6 element Yagi was obviously doing the heavy lifting, but it
> was still good to see that less than 3 watts from a simple end fed
> wire could make the trip across the Atlantic even without much help
> from the Sun."
> 
> Thanks to Max White, M0VNG in the UK for this interesting piece on
> some space weather research:
> 
> http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/lunar-orbiters-discover-source-247774.aspx.
> 
> And finally, Jeff Hartley, N8II of West Virginia wrote to us last
> evening, "Conditions on September 27-30 were good on the high bands
> with October 2 being the poorest day. Throughout the period the SFI
> ranged from low 100's to around 115.
> 
> "On September 27, 12 meters was open well to Europe by 1300 UTC
> (sunrise is just after 1100 UTC, sunset around 2345 UTC) working
> many Ukrainians. By 1330 UTC, 10 meters was open to southern Europe
> and especially the UA6 area and Ukraine. At 1500 UTC, JW9JKA on Bear
> Island, EU-027 was easily worked S5 on 10 phone followed by OZ1BTE,
> OH5UZ, several Germans, Polish, Austrians and a few Southern
> Europeans, mostly with S7-S9 signals going QRT at 1533 UTC. Andy,
> UA0BA was found on my return at 1828 UTC a solid 599 on 10 CW from
> far northern zone 18, which is well after midnight there, with some
> auroral Es probably involved. Then I found him on 12 meter CW at
> 1846 UTC about 559. Both UA0ZC and R0FA were loud on 12 CW at
> 2103/2124 UTC, but the band every day seems to close to Asia by
> sunset. About an hour after sunset RA/KE5FA, HL2XUM, and DU2US were
> around S5 on 17 CW.
> 
> "On September 28, my first morning QSO was UA9FAR on 12 meter CW,
> and he was 589. By 1318 UTC, 10 meters opened to RA1QD and YL2TQ.
> DXing took a back seat to the Texas QSO Party for most of the rest
> of the weekend. 20 meters was in pretty good shape to Texas most of
> the time except Sunday after about 1730 UTC when absorption was
> high. 15 meters opened to Texas well by about 1540 UTC both days and
> stayed open until past 2230 UTC Saturday, but activity could have
> been better.
> 
> "10 meters opened on Sunday well to Europe at 1308 UTC when I turned
> on the radio, with many UA3 area stations logged. Conditions
> actually seemed to favor Russia with about 25 stations logged before
> QRTing for the Texas QSO Party at 1352 UTC; western EU was weak at
> best. This was the best day into Russia and surprisingly good
> conditions considering the fairly low SFI.
> 
> "On September 30, 10 meters did not open well to Europe, but again
> there was some propagation to RU3EG (1506 UTC) and UA3YDH (1335
> UTC). And surprisingly, Kumar, VU2BGS was worked S5 on 10 CW using a
> 6 element yagi on his end and 5 el on my end. Twelve meters was open
> well to UR and Russia as far as RQ4F. Outside of India, Central Asia
> conditions have not been good above 20 meters. 8Q7AM was 57 on 15
> meter phone at 1653 UTC, but he is far south. Since October 2, 10
> has sounded poor except to the south and even 12 meters has been
> quite poor or closed to Europe.
> 
> "Today, Oct 3, conditions seemed to improve later in the day with a
> good 12 meter opening to JA around 2220 UTC and a good signal from
> TO2TT on Mayotte in the Indian Ocean on 17 phone at 1942 UTC. There
> was some sporadic-E into New England as well as to county activator
> W0GXQ in eastern Oklahoma, logged on 12 and 10 meters with S5
> signals or better (1540-1722 UTC) and still loud on 15 most of the
> time on F2 thru 2046 UTC."
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for September 26 through October 2 were 63, 54, 58,
> 39, 42, 49, and 59, with a mean of 52. 10.7 cm flux was 109.9,
> 107.9, 105.7, 103.1, 104.9, 106.8, and 108.1, with a mean of 106.6.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, and 39, with a
> mean of 8. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6,
> and 29, with a mean of 6.7.
> NNNN
> /EX