[SFDXA] ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

Fri May 24 16:28:48 EDT 2013

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021
> ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP21
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21  ARLP021
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  May 24, 2013
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP021
> ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Overall, solar activity is still pretty quiet, but one positive sign
> was on May 16, when the daily sunspot number was 212.  I eyeballed
> the records, and had to keep searching further and further back to
> find a higher sunspot number.
> 
> One year, six months and one week earlier, on November 9, 2011 the
> sunspot number was nearly that high, at 208.  We look clear back
> seven years, 10 months and 12 days to July 4, 2005, another near
> miss at 192.  To find activity beating the May 16 number we have to
> go back nearly a decade, to November 1, 2003 when the daily sunspot
> number was 277.  This was way back on the downward slide of cycle
> 23, nine years, six months and 15 days earlier than our recent high
> number.  Let's hope for many more days like this.  That seems
> likely, as the peak of this solar cycle is predicted for this fall,
> which begins about four months from now, on Sunday, September 22.
> 
> Compared to the previous period (May 9-15) average daily sunspot
> numbers this week were down over 12 points to 144.  Average daily
> solar flux sank nearly 6 points to 134.2.  Geomagnetic activity was
> higher, with average daily planetary A index up 3.7 points to 9.7,
> and average daily mid-latitude A index up 4.4 points to 10.3.  It
> should be noted that five of the eight daily geomagnetic readings
> which make up the A index were not recorded for May 16 at the mid-
> latitude observatory, so the mid-latitude A index of 12 for that day
> is an estimate.
> 
> The latest prediction from NOAA/USAF has solar flux at 135 on May
> 24-25, 130 on May 26-27, 135 on May 28-29, and then 130, 115, 105
> and 110 on May 30 through June 2, 120 on June 3-5, and 125 on June
> 6-8, before rising to a short-term peak of 140 on June 12-13.  This
> prediction is a bit far off, but it also shows a minimum flux value
> of 100 on June 26-27.
> 
> Turning to geomagnetic activity, predicted planetary A index is 15,
> 20, 12 and 8 on May 24-27, 5 on May 28 through June 10, and then 8,
> 12 and 8 on June 11-13, 5 on June 14-17, and then 15, 12, 8 and 5 on
> June 18-21.  On June 24, a month and about one solar rotation from
> now, they show planetary A index rising from 5 to 15, perhaps an
> echo of current geomagnetic activity.
> 
> OK1HH predicts active to disturbed geomagnetic conditions May 24,
> quiet to active May 25, mostly quiet May 26-27, quiet to active May
> 28, quiet to unsettled May 29, quiet May 30, quiet to unsettled May
> 31 through June 1, mostly quiet June 2, quiet to unsettled June 3,
> quiet June 4-8, mostly quiet June 9-10, quiet to active June 11,
> active to disturbed June 12-13, quiet to unsettled June 14, and
> mostly quiet June 15-16.
> 
> The CQ World Wide WPX Contest, CW weekend begins tonight/tomorrow at
> 0000 UTC May 25.  The geomagnetic activity predicted for this
> weekend may add some additional challenge to the test, which has a
> new set of rules.  The multiplier used is the number of unique call
> sign prefixes of stations worked.  See details at
> http://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm.
> 
> The current geomagnetic activity is due to a May 22 M5 class solar
> flare, which is expected to deliver a glancing blow to our
> geomagnetic field today, May 24.
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK reports that during a six meter e-layer opening last
> Sunday evening observed from coast to coast in North America, a rare
> Australia to North America opening took place.  From 2355 UTC on May
> 19 until 0032 UTC on May 20 on CW VK4MA worked W9FF, NW0W, K9ZM,
> WZ8D, W9WZJ and K0GU.  It appears the longest distance was to WZ8D,
> about 9,041 miles.  N0JK believes the propagation path was via
> e-layer linked to trans-equatorial propagation.
> 
> Last Friday, May 17 Jim Smith, K3RTU took his backpack rig into
> Ridley Creek State Park in Southeast Pennsylvania (FM29).  He wrote:
> "After some hiking I set up my Buddistick vertical and new KX3 about
> 1730.  I tried 15 meters first, but had no luck and only heard a few
> stations, so I readjusted the antenna for 17 meters and after a few
> minutes worked Duncan, EA5ON/M with SSB and got a 54 report.  Not
> too bad for vertical to vertical, but the QRN on his end was
> troublesome.  Duncan told me it was raining there with lots of
> atmospheric noise and later contacts with Western Europe confirmed
> the bad weather was pretty wide spread.  Then over the next two
> hours worked Dave VP5/W5CW (my report 59), Mario DJ2OR (55), Carolyn
> W5/G6WRW near Santa Fe, NM (53), Al VE7WJ (53), Joe DF9ZP (59),
> KB5AVE (56), and last, Mike IF9ZWA (55) on Favignana Island off the
> coast of Sicily.  What amazed me the most was that I had good
> propagation both east and west of my location which I don't always
> find to be the case."
> 
> And finally, I just ran across a previously overlooked email from
> Wayne Mills, N7NG of Jackson Hole, Wyoming sent on January 4, 2013,
> reflecting on cycle 19.  Wayne said, "I have seen all of the solar
> peaks since 1956.  What I have to say, however, is that I had
> absolutely no expectation of what cycle 20 might be like.  The
> reason was that when I was a sophomore in high school in 1958, I had
> NO IDEA what sunspots were.
> 
> I started working DX in 1956 with 90 watts and a low 40M dipole.  I
> was on 20M CW ONLY.  No worries about other bands, what might be
> open, what long paths might be open.  Just listen and work what I
> heard.
> 
> It was just a few high school friends and me; we had very little
> contact with local DXers.  Eventually, I ran into W6MX (Honor Roll
> 1955) and W6BAX, a serious DXer and learned a few things.
> 
> Soon, I put up a 2 element 20M beam, and then I had to worry about
> where to point it.  Still, it took more than 2 years to work DXCC.
> 
> Things will never be the same."
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of
> the numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.  An archive of
> past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.  More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for May 16 through 22 were 212, 198, 146, 113, 113,
> 119, and 107, with a mean of 144.  10.7 cm flux was 144.7, 136.4,
> 132.1, 135.3, 132, 125.3, and 133.4, with a mean of 134.2.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 9, 21, 12, 7, 7, and 12, with
> a mean of 9.7.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 12, 9, 16, 11,
> 6, 8, and 10, with a mean of 10.3.
> NNNN
> /EX