[SFDXA] ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill Marx]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024
> ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP24
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24  ARLP024
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  June 14, 2013
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP024
> ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Average daily sunspot numbers declined over 32 points this week to
> 39.6.  Average daily solar flux was down more than 8 points to 99.2.
> Tuesday's solar flux at 89.5 was the lowest since June 22-25 of last
> year, when values ranged from 84 to 88.6. Likewise, Tuesday's
> sunspot number of 14 was also the lowest since June 25, 2012 when
> the sunspot number was also 14. Since then both numbers have been
> recovering, with Wednesday and Thursday's sunspot numbers at 27 and
> 45, and solar flux at 93.3 and 98.9.
> 
> The latest prediction has solar flux at 105 on June 14-17, 100 on
> June 18-19, 105 and 110 on June 20-21, 115 on June 22-24, 110 on
> June 25, 105 on June 26-28, and 110 on June 29 through July 4.
> Solar flux is expected to reach a minimum of 95 around July 7-8 and
> another peak at 115 on July 18-21. Note that ARRL Field Day is June
> 22-23, right when solar flux is expected to be highest.
> 
> The predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 14-16, 8 on June 17-18,
> 5 on June 19-20, then 25, 18, 10 and 8 on June 21-24, 5 on June
> 25-27, then 30, 20, 10 and 8 on June 28 through July 1, 5 on July
> 2-4, 10 on July 5-6, 8 on July 7, and 5 on July 8 through mid-month.
> 
> A geomagnetic forecast comes to us this week from Petr Kolman,
> OK1MGW, who sees quiet to unsettled conditions June 14, mostly quiet
> June 15-18, quiet to unsettled June 19-20, quiet to active June
> 21-23, quiet to unsettled June 24, quiet June 25-26, quiet to active
> June 27, active to disturbed June 28-29, quiet to unsettled June 30
> through July 2, quiet to active July 3-4, mostly quiet July 5-6.
> 
> Word has come that the link to the W6ELprop installation file at
> http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/ is broken. Until it is restored you can
> find it at ftp://150.214.111.198/pub/ham/propag/W6ELPropInst270.EXE.
> 
> Unfamiliar with FTP? FTP is File Transfer Protocol, and you can
> paste that link into your web browser URL window, hit Enter, and a
> download dialog should appear. W6ELprop works only on Windows
> computers, and with it you can predict propagation from your station
> to anywhere else, on any frequency between 3-30 MHz. If you have any
> trouble installing, try right-clicking the file and running as
> administrator.
> 
> The latest NASA prediction for Cycle 24 moves the sunspot peak back
> to Summer 2013, but NOAA predicts the peak for the end of this year.
> Check pages 16 and 17 at
> http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1970.pdf and note the highest
> smoothed sunspot and solar flux numbers are predicted in November
> and December 2013. These are smoothed international sunspot numbers,
> with a scale quite a bit lower than the Boulder numbers reported
> here.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at,
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for June 6 through 12 were 71, 76, 27, 41, 21, 14,
> and 27, with a mean of 39.6. 10.7 cm flux was 109, 109.8, 103.2, 96,
> 93.3, 89.5, and 93.3, with a mean of 99.2. Estimated planetary A
> indices were 17, 32, 10, 9, 13, 6, and 5, with a mean of 13.1.
> Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 16, 26, 9, 8, 12, 6, and 5,
> with a mean of 11.7.
> NNNN
> /EX