[SFDXA] Video of the Sun RE: ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

Bill,
Thanks for the solar reports.
This link is to a video of the Sun that we don't usually see..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?list=UUAY-SMFNfynqz1bdoaV8BeQ&v=HFT7ATLQQx8&fea
ture=player_embedded#

73's
Harvey KC4CX

-----Original Message-----
From: sfdxa-bounces at mailman.qth.net [mailto:sfdxa-bounces at mailman.qth.net]
On Behalf Of Bill
Sent: Friday, June 07, 2013 5:50 PM
To: aSFDXA; qcWA69 at mailman.qth.net
Subject: [SFDXA] ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA


SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP23
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23  ARLP023
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 7, 2013
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity seems to dip back into the doldrums again, with the average
sunspot number for the past week (72) lower than any reporting week since
Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP013, which was for the week of March
21-27. You can go through the recent bulletins at
http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
and note that two weeks ago we had twice that number, when the average daily
sunspot number was 144. From last week, the average dropped more than 12
points from 94.3. Average daily solar flux was down more than 10 points to
107.6.

But tracking the 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers, (which is
based on calendar months) the three months ending May 31 had a much higher
average than the 3 months ending April 30, and in fact more than any
trailing three month average since the one ending on January 2012.

At the end of 2011 we saw a rally in solar activity, and with the weak
activity in all of 2012 some are suggesting another double-peaked solar
cycle. The three month periods centered on July through December 2011 had
average sunspot numbers of 63, 79.6, 98.6, 118.8, 118.6 and 110. The first
few months of 2012 were weaker, with the 3-month averages centered on
January through March at 83.3, 73.7 and 71.2. But now the numbers are
trending up. The 3-month averages centered on January through April 2013
were 73.6, 80.7, 85.2 and 106.4.

If you are unfamiliar with moving averages, using our method for the 3-month
period centered on March, 2013, we added up all the daily sunspot numbers
from February 1 through April 30. The sum was 7,581.
We divided by the 89 days in those three months, and got approximately 85.2.
For the period centered on April, we added all sunspot numbers from March 1
through May 31, and the sum was 9,792.
As there were 92 days in this period, the average rounds off to 106.4.

On June 3 NASA updated their forecast for the peak of the current solar
cycle, available at http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml. This
differs from a month earlier, when on May 1 they predicted a cycle maximum
in Fall
2013 with a smoothed international sunspot number of 66. Now they predict a
peak at 67 in Summer 2013. Summer officially begins at the Solstice, two
weeks from today, on June 21 at 0504 UTC, which by the way is the Friday
before Field Day weekend.

The active geomagnetic days over the past week were June 1-2, when the
planetary A index was 49 and 19, the mid-latitude index was 41 and 16, and
the high latitude college A index (measured near Fairbanks, Alaska) was 58
and 44. These numbers reflect the concentration of geomagnetic activity
toward the poles. The source was an interplanetary shock wave of uncertain
origin.

Again as this bulletin is written early Friday morning on the West Coast, we
are in a geomagnetic storm, the result of the Earth passing through
south-pointing magnetism in the solar wind. There is a possibility on June 8
of getting buffeted again, this time the result of a CME, and possibly two.

The planetary A index was 17 on June 6, with increasing K-index values from
2 to 3 to 4. Now early on June 7 we see planetary K-index of 5 and 6, which
is the equivalent to an A index reading of 64. Now after 1200 UTC it dropped
to 56.

The Australian Space Forecast center issued a geomagnetic disturbance
warning at 0217 UTC on June 7. It reads, "A CME from a disappearing solar
filament has arrived earlier than anticipated and is accompanied by a
strongly southward pointing magnetic field. This is producing Minor Storm
levels of activity in polar regions and may produce Active conditions at mid
latitudes over the next 1-2 days."
They predict a minor geomagnetic storm today, June 7, and unsettled to
active conditions through the weekend, June 8-9.

The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA is for solar flux at 110 on June 7, 105
on June 8-9, 100 on June 10, 95 on June 11-12, 100 and
105 on June 13-14, 120 on June 15-16, 125 on June 17-19, then with flux
values bottoming out at 105 on June 24-28, and rising to 125 on July 2 and
again on July 14-16.

Predicted planetary A index is 18 on June 7-8, then 10 and 8 on June 9-10, 5
on June 11-20, then 25, 18, 10 and 8 on June 21-24, 5 on June 25-27, then
30, 20, 12, 8, 5, 8, 12, 10 and 5 on June 28 through July 6.

Petr Kolman, OK1MGW predicted a quiet geomagnetic field for June 7 (the
prediction was sent around 1900 UTC on June 6), mostly quiet June 8-9, quiet
June 10, quiet to unsettled June 11, quiet to active June 12-14, mostly
quiet June 15-17, quiet June 18, quiet to unsettled June 19-20, active to
disturbed June 21, quiet to active June 22-23, quiet to unsettled June 24,
mostly quiet June 25-26, quiet to active June 27, and active to disturbed
June 28-29. You can see quite a difference from the NOAA/USAF prediction in
the previous paragraph, but the NOAA forecasters have the advantage of
revising their forecast every 24 hours, while OK1HH and OK1MGW only do it
once per week.

Bert Cook, K6CSL of Riverbank, California, which is northeast of Modesto in
the San Joaquin Valley, wrote to comment about the ARRL Propagation Charts.
He finds them useful, but said the monthly charts are never available until
well into the new month. I checked and learned these are prepared by the lab
at ARRL headquarters, but the delay is due to some technical issues that may
not be resolved right away.

As these are prepared using the VOACAP prediction engine, I suggested an
alternative that should suit his needs if he would rather not set up the
VOACAP program himself. Several months back we mentioned the subscription
service at http://www.k6tu.net. There is a free 30-day trial, and if you
should choose to continue, the subscription cost is reasonable. This has the
advantage of customization for the user's exact location, plus you can make
predictions for future months as well.

You can also customize your account for antennas and power levels, and when
you run the program it emails you a set of URLs for the bands you have
chosen as well as the region, either North America or world wide. Rather
than look at these online, I found it much better to download the PDF files,
then page through the 24 hourly pages for each band. You get a set of
beautifully rendered maps with colors corresponding to coverage areas and
signal levels. When you can quickly flip through these after downloading,
you watch the projection of the signal levels for different areas progress
across the map, hour-by-hour.

Another alternative is to use the free W6ELprop software for Windows
computers. Check the K9LA tutorial at
http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/propagation/W6elprop.pdf,
and you can download the software at http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/.
W6ELprop is free, but K6TU tells me he is about to add some great new
features to his service.

Larry Nelson, K5IJB of El Paso, Texas reports: "Several 6-meter CW beacon
stations were very helpful last Sunday (June 2) when listening for band
openings. From about mid-morning up to noon, these beacons were S9 as the
band opened to the West and mid-West from El Paso: N0LL/B, N7DGI/B,
WB0RMO/B, W5GPM/B and N0SAP/B. I made several CW and SSB contacts using the
Icom 703 (10 watts) to a homebrew vertical dipole at 25 feet."

Lou DiChiaro, WB2IJT reported, "As a Navy civilian physicist, I don't get to
spend much time on the air during the work week.
However, I do occasionally get on the air over the weekends. This past
Saturday (June 1) was an extraordinary day for Es on 6 meters.
I'm running 100 watts out from an IC-7000 to a large loop antenna running
around the inside perimeter of my attic (to avoid the wrath of the
subdivision esthetics enforcers). From Grid Square FM29
(Delaware) I worked in quick succession a number of Florida stations, some
in Georgia, Arkansas, and Missouri. One of the Georgia stations measured
S9+20 dB on the S meter (he was running a KW into a 5 element Yagi - it
helps!).

"It was a band opening to remember. And I'll bet you're getting lots of
reports like mine. Hopefully, we'll get lots more openings like this from
Old Sol before he runs out of hydrogen and starts burning helium in his
core."

And finally, Jeff Hartley, N8II reports from West Virginia: "From 0245-0400Z
Friday May 31 I caught the best conditions towards EU on 15M I can ever
remember so late in the evening, in 42 years on the air.  Since the solar
flux was around 120, my guess would be there was a sporadic-E link to the
opening on the North American end, but the stations worked were in daylight
ranging from around sunrise to mid morning. Prefixes worked in order from
0242-0306Z on 15 CW were DJ2, UT7, UA3, UT9, RA1, RA4LW (S9+5dB, then +20 dB
at 0330Z!), UK8OWW, SP7.  Then, I tried some CQs on 12M with no answer and
scanned 10M towards EU where there were no signals to the NE including
beacons, but several W6 beacons were loud via double hop Es. I went back to
15 CW at 0328Z and worked RU4, YO4, LA6, RZ6, UB6, UR4, UX7, RD3, UA6, and
LZ2 thru 0352Z.

"I made a quick check of 15 SSB and found Ed, 4Z4UR who was S9. He mentioned
he uses WWV near Fort Collins on 20 MHz often as a propagation indicator for
NA, a smart idea. He says he can frequently hear WWV around 0300-0400Z at
this time of year indicating a band opening which I would guess rarely
extends as far east as my QTH in FM19cj. I checked 15 the next night around
the same time and there was no opening to anywhere.

"On June 1 from 0125-0149Z, I did catch UN5C and UN5J with good signals on
17M CW as well as FO8WBB, ZL1BD, and a VP2V on 12M. 10M was dead including
beacons. During the day I worked the Alabama QSO party in which even 10M was
open to Alabama on Es from 19Z thru about 0020Z, though it was not utilized
by most Alabama stations.
All of the stations I asked to QSY to 10M up from 15 or 20M were
successfully logged mostly with very strong signals. 15 was fairly active on
CW and 20 was in great shape with strong signals all day until about 0120Z.
40M was barely usable at first, but was open from here pretty well from
2045Z onward. The high bands were the best ever to Alabama in the ALQP from
here. In the late afternoon, I also worked AF3X/M on 20 roaming around the
NYC boroughs with S9 signals only about 250 miles away.

"I operated part time in the WPX CW contest May 25-26 on 20M.
Conditions were disturbed at the beginning, then quite so Saturday 1200Z
thru at least 0300Z Sunday. There were some very loud southern and central
EU at the start thru around 0115Z when the band gradually closed. A few
Russians and Asians were found, but were almost gone by 0215Z whereas
normally I have run pile ups from western Asiatic and European Russians from
0200-0400Z on 20 CW.
Sunday 0100-0200Z was pretty much rock bottom, but I managed somehow to work
all continents except EU during that time. RC9O who would normally peak
around 20 degrees peaked around 310 degrees on a very skewed path and was
only about S4. SA was loud and I worked KH7 and ZL3. Sunday at 1400Z, 20
seemed back to near normal as it did at 2345Z, but I only had time to
operate mainly in the 14Z hour when many northern EU stations not possible
to work before due to conditions were logged."

Thanks, Jeff!

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at, k7ra at arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information
and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are
at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for May 30 through June 5 were 71, 58, 60, 76, 99, 59, and
81, with a mean of 72. 10.7 cm flux was 104.1, 101.8, 105.8, 110.9, 111.8,
109.9, and 108.8, with a mean of 107.6. Estimated planetary A indices were
3, 9, 49, 19, 10, 10, and 6, with a mean of 15.1. Estimated mid-latitude A
indices were 2, 7, 41, 16, 9, 10, and 9, with a mean of 13.4.
NNNN
/EX




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