[SFDXA] ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill Marx]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP030
> ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP30
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 30  ARLP030
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  July 26, 2013
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP030
> ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> At 2330 UTC on July 24, Australia's IPS Radio and Space services
> issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.  Increased geomagnetic
> activity is expected due to a coronal mass ejection.  They predict
> quiet to unsettled conditions on July 25, active to minor storm on
> July 26, and active conditions on July 27.
> 
> As this bulletin nears release early Friday morning, the planetary A
> index was 4 on four recent readings, followed by 2 on the last one.
> But the mid-latitude K index was 4 on three recent readings, then 5
> on the last two.  Geomagnetic activity is increasing, as expected.
> 
> Over the past reporting week, compared to the previous period (July
> 11 to 17) average daily sunspot numbers decreased by less than four
> points to 73.4, while average daily solar flux declined slightly
> more than three points to 110.6.
> 
> NOAA/USAF predicts Planetary A Index at 18 on July 26, 12 on July
> 27, 8 on July 28, 5 on July 29 to 31, 8 on August 1, 5 on August 2
> to 8, 8 on August 9 to 11, 5 on August 12 and 13, 8 on August 14 and
> 15, 5 on August 16 and 17, 10 on August 18, 15 on August 19 to 22,
> and then 8, 5 and 8 on August 23 to 25.
> 
> The outlook for solar flux calls for 105 on July 26 and 27, then
> 110, 115, 120, 125, 130, 135, 130, 125, 120, 125, 120 and 125 on
> July 28 through August 8, 120 on August 9 to 12, 115 on August 13,
> 120 on August 14 to 17, 125 on August 18, 120 on August 19 and 20,
> and 125 on August 21 to 23.  The latest projection shows a short
> term solar flux peak at 135 on September 4 and 5 after a minimum of
> 100 on August 27 and 28.
> 
> OK1MGW from the Czech Propagation Interest Group sees quiet to
> active geomagnetic conditions on July 26 and 27, quiet to unsettled
> July 28 and 29, quiet on July 30 and 31, quiet to unsettled August
> 1, quiet to active August 2, active to disturbed August 3, quiet
> August 4, mostly quiet August 5, active to disturbed August 6 and 7,
> quiet to unsettled August 8 to 11, quiet August 12 and 13, quiet to
> active August 14 and 15, and quiet to unsettled August 16 and 17.
> 
> Juan Carlos, CO8TW lives in Santiago de Cuba, about 600 miles
> southeast of Havana.  He put up a new propagation web site that has
> many useful features and an interesting mix of information.  Check
> it out at http://www.qsl.net/co8tw/pro.htm.
> 
> Another interesting propagation page I ran across recently is at
> http://qrzcq.com/page/propagation.
> 
> G4CJC has a 10 meter report at
> http://www.southgatearc.org/bands/10metres/.
> 
> The NOAA/NWS Space Weather Prediction center has a Facebook page at 
> https://www.facebook.com/pages/NOAA-NWS-Space-Weather-Prediction-Center/232532740131296.
> 
> Note the July 16 article about the K index,and a map of North America showing
> how high the planetary K index has to be in order to see aurora borealis from
> any location.  For my location near Puget Sound, it seems to say a K index at 8
> or higher would be good.  But for Northern Minnesota and North Dakota a K
> index of only 4 seems adequate.  Of course on Facebook is the always
> timely and useful page from NW7US titled "Space Weather and Radio
> Resources at HFRadio.org", at
> https://www.facebook.com/pages/NOAA-NWS-Space-Weather-Prediction-Center/232532740131296.  
> 
> David Moore sent an interesting article from The Guardian about the
> Met Office now offering coverage of space weather.  Met originally
> was short for meteorological but now is the official name for the
> British weather and climate service.  Read it at
> http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/2013/jul/23/met-office-space-weather-forecasting.
> 
> There also is yet another article about the current solar cycle
> being the weakest in the past 100 years, this time from Sky and
> Telescope: http://www.skyandtelescope.com/news/The-Weakest-Solar-Cycle-in-100-Years-216752671.html.
> 
> Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote in response
> to the comment last week about the lack of 6 meter openings into
> DM04.  Jeff is in FM19, and wrote on July 20, "It has not been a
> good Es season from here, but we have had several multi-hop openings
> since July 1 mostly out into Arizona and New Mexico along with one
> to Oregon, Washington, and VE7.  Only once did I catch Europe and it
> was only to France and Portugal.  So, I am not too surprised that
> many are disappointed with their 6 meter openings this year.  Even
> the 20 meter E-skip is much less frequent than normal this year."
> 
> "Today, July 20 there was a Russian sponsored contest and in a few
> short minutes I heard/worked strong stations from HS, YD, BH8, UN,
> and UA9 on 15 meter CW around 1245Z.  This was the best shape in
> which I have heard 15 in some time."
> 
> On July 19, Jon Pollock, K0ZN of De Soto, Kansas wrote, "Even though
> sunspot numbers have been modest, I was on last night (July 18)
> between about 0130-0330 UTC (on 17 meters) and from my QTH in
> Eastern Kansas I worked several stations in the Central Pacific
> including E51AND in the Cook Islands and some ZL's, all on CW and
> with decent (but not strong) signals.  Interestingly, on both ends
> of these QSO's we were running high power into basic unity gain
> antennas and only netted about S-5 signals, so path loss was
> moderately high.  But, the bottom line is, 18 MHz was open into the
> Pacific from Kansas well into the late evening.  I still find that
> if 17 meters sounds 'dead' with low noise, it is usually open with
> very long skip and the main problem is a lack of activity, not a
> lack of propagation."
> 
> Good point, Jon.  You can also listen for beacons if you suspect a
> quiet band is not actually dead (or make some calls.), or get a
> trial account at QupNow (see http://q-upnow.com/) and click on HF
> Availability.  This relies on up-to-the-minute global measurements
> of TEC (Total Electron Content in the ionosphere), and allows you to
> test propagation on any path, but only for the current time.  It
> shows the relative signal strength all long that path, from your QTH
> to the target location and continuing on out the other side over the
> great circle route.  Note that it also works on 160 meters.  You can
> either enter coordinates for both locations, or it may be more
> convenient to use the grid square entry method.
> 
> Don May, N5DN of Houston, Texas pointed out that on July 25,
> Spaceweather.com ran an article about the weak solar cycle titled
> "Underwhelming".  "Kinda makes a DXer want to cry.", weeps Don, and
> we can all certainly empathize.  But, there is still room for hope.
> The article also said, "Solar physicist Dean Pesnell of the Goddard
> Space Flight Center thinks Solar Cycle 24 is double peaked--and the
> second peak is yet to come."  If you can't find the article and
> accompanying graphic, go to http://www.spaceweather.com/ and enter
> July 25 in the Archives drop-downs in the upper right.
> 
> Chip Margelli, K7JA of Garden Grove, California (DM03) wrote
> "Although 6 meters has been terrible this year, I did just work
> KH6HME (KH7Y operating) on 144.276.5 MHz on SSB and CW.  Fred
> started at 5x1 and came up to about 5x5.  Time was 1857 UTC on 25
> July.  Good to hear Fred activating Paul Lieb's memorial callsign."
> Chip notes that Fred was running 80 watts and an 8 element Yagi from
> Mauna Loa.  Chip was running 100 watts using a TS-2000 and an 8
> element LFA Yagi ten feet above his roof.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for July 18 through 24 were 112, 94, 57, 49, 53, 84,
> and 65, with a mean of 73.4. 10.7 cm flux was 114.8, 113.6, 112.5,
> 109.4, 109.9, 106.7, and 107.6, with a mean of 110.6. Estimated
> planetary A indices were 15, 14, 6, 5, 6, 5, and 5, with a mean of
> 8. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 16, 13, 6, 4, 6, 5, and 6,
> with a mean of 8.
> NNNN
> /EX
>