[SFDXA] ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053
> ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP53
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53  ARLP053
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  December 27, 2013
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP053
> ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> This is the last propagation forecast bulletin of 2013. In the first
> bulletin of 2014 we will review the previous year, and look at some
> averages to give us perspective on the current Solar Cycle 24.
> 
> Solar activity declined somewhat this week. The average of daily
> sunspot numbers retreated nearly 21 points from 134.4 to 114.6, and
> average solar flux was off nearly 21 points to 138.8.  Geomagnetic
> indices were quiet.
> 
> These comparisons are between the recent seven day reporting period
> and the previous week, December 12-18, 2013.
> 
> Predicted solar flux according to the most recent forecast on
> Thursday, December 26 from NOAA/USAF is 125 on December 27-28, then
> 130, 135 and 140 on December 29-31, then 145, 150, 155, 165, 170,
> 175 and 170 on January 1-7, 165 on January 8-10, 155 on January
> 11-15, and 150 on January 16-17. Solar flux is predicted to drop to
> a low of 125 on January 22-25, and peak at 175 on February 2.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 7 on December 27, 5 on December 28
> through January 2, then 10 and 20 on January 3-4, then 5 on January
> 5-9, then 15 on January 10, and 5 on January 11-20, then 10 and 8 on
> January 21-22.
> 
> F.K. Janda, OK1HH shares his geomagnetic predictions this week, and
> sees quiet to active conditions December 27, mostly quiet December
> 28, quiet to unsettled December 29, active to disturbed December 30,
> quiet December 31 and January 1, mostly quiet January 2-3, active to
> disturbed January 4, quiet to unsettled January 5, quiet January
> 6-9, quiet to unsettled January 10, quiet to active January 11,
> quiet to unsettled January 12, and mostly quiet January 13-17.
> 
> Don Kalinowski, NJ2E of Cary, North Carolina sent us a tip on space
> weather coverage by the British Met (Meteorological) Office, which
> will begin in Spring 2014. You can read about it here:
> 
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25517466
> 
> And here:
> 
> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/space-weather-forecasts
> 
> Don also sent a link to this interesting video from NASA:
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS57VH3QN1g
> 
> Rich Zwirko, K1HTV of Amissville, Virginia sent this interesting
> report:
> 
> "Saturday, December 21 had some very interesting conditions on the
> higher HF bands. I was watching solarham.com around 1545 UTC and
> noticed a sharp peak in the density (proton?) reading on the ACE
> solar wind real time display. I switched to 10 meters and found 3W1T
> in Vietnam with a strong signal on CW coming in via long path from
> the south. In a few minutes he was in the log. That was around
> 1545Z.
> 
> "His signal continued to build to almost S9 on the K3 S meter over
> the next 15 minutes. I called Ed again on CW with my 100W, asking if
> he could switch to SSB, but he said that he had to QRT in a few
> minutes. I then switched to 15 meter SSB with the beam east and
> worked VK4WIL via the long path. Contacts were also made with a
> number of stations in the southern half of Africa.
> 
> "Later in the day around 2345Z VK6WX, with a great long path signal,
> was easily worked on 20 meter SSB. Then in the next 45 minutes QSOs
> were made with three stations in the Antarctic region on 20 meter
> CW, all with what seemed to be greatly enhanced signal strengths. On
> the other hand, signals via the northern polar path were almost
> non-existent at the K1HTV QTH. Go figure!"
> 
> Thanks, Rich!
> 
> Log into http://www.qrz.com and take a look at the K1HTV profile,
> full of interesting history for this active ham, 55 years on the
> air.
> 
> Larry Godek, W0OGH of Gilbert, Arizona wrote on December 21:
> 
> "Today listening to the KSM CW transmission on 16.914 Mc out of
> Point Reyes, California, I am hearing echoes between the characters.
> Sometimes it's hard to determine the characters as the echo is as
> strong as the direct or reflected signal. Wonder if anyone else
> heard the same thing?
> 
> "10 meter FM has been going strong all day with signals from the
> East Coast in here solid on 29.620 MHz through KQ2H in New York
> City.  Hearing South American stations quite well. Also this year
> I've heard the VE2TST repeater in Ottawa an awful lot whereas in the
> past years it's been very seldom heard.
> 
> "Lots of signals on the bands for the RTTY contest. Hope they have a
> banner weekend."
> 
> The KSM transmissions are from a former commercial marine radio site
> at Point Reyes, Bolinas, California in Marin County north of San
> Francisco. KSM is on the air occasionally to commemorate the old
> high seas CW operations of years past. Read about it here:
> http://www.radiomarine.org/
> 
> Peter Gambee, K6TTD of Sacramento, California sent this on December
> 20:
> 
> "I am located near downtown Sacramento, California. I did get on the
> air much too briefly during the 10 meter contest, for about an hour
> all together. Family and holiday shopping took precedence. I had the
> rig on in the background throughout, and was able to hear (sometimes
> see on CW Skimmer) what was happening, which only made sitting on
> the sidelines more painful. Conditions were outstanding on 10
> throughout the contest from all I heard and saw.
> 
> "During the hour I was on, I wasn't competing. I spent my time
> 'scooting and pouncing' on new DXCC entities and bands. I only
> logged about a half dozen brand new DXCC entities, and chocked up
> about a dozen or so new-band DXCC QSOs. The majority of these were
> in Central America, South America and Asia. Europe and Africa seemed
> to be just out of reach as I wasn't able to get on the air when they
> were solid into Northern California.
> 
> "So far during this 'second peak' of Cycle 24, I have logged 175 new
> DXCC entities and now have over 100 DXCC confirmed. What has REALLY
> blown me away is that my linear has been idle for many of those
> contacts. In all but the most ugly pileups, I've been working DX
> with 15-30 watts.
> 
> "Lately I have been starting out with 15 watts and working my way up
> depending on conditions. Not that 30 watts is QRP by any means, but
> I'm still blown away with what I've been able to do barefoot,
> usually on the first or second call.
> 
> "I fell into this pattern completely by accident. I finished a QSO
> with my first station in China a few weeks into the current peak,
> only to realize that my linear was off and I was only running about
> 15 watts out! Just to see if it was dumb luck, I stuck with 15 watts
> and made several additional QSOs with new DXCC throughout Asia.
> Been going with the flow ever since.
> 
> "I still have the security blanket of a linear when conditions get
> really rough, as they likely will sooner than we would all like, but
> running sub-100 watts has been a kick. I will be giving REAL QRP a
> shot ASAP, before the SSN drops down.
> 
> "Some of my bigger surprises so far: V63XG Micronesia (15w), ZM90DX
> Auckland and Campbell (15w), RU0ZM/0 Asiatic Russia (15w), ZS9MADIBA
> South Africa (30w), BA8AG China (20w) and XV2LRR Vietnam (20w)."
> 
> Thanks, Peter! Great report. Back when I was a teenaged WA7CSK in
> 1966, W7OE inducted me into QRP Amateur Radio Club International
> (#2656), and they considered 100 watts and below as QRP. These days
> 5 watts or less is generally considered QRP, but in the early
> seventies if I recall correctly 5 watts or less was referred to as
> QRPp.
> 
> We heard from Pavel Milanes Costa, CO7WT of Camaguey Cuba. He wrote,
> "Hi, I'm CO7WT from Cuba, and today I had a curious experience on 12
> meters.
> 
> "I sit down in my shack and begin to call on 24.950 MHz around 1:00
> PM local (1600 UTC) and the band was so-so, but using the CQRLOG
> software in Linux with the world map showing the approximate place
> of each station I note what can be called as a skip ribbon or skip
> zone moving away westward.
> 
> "Beginning on the East Coast of US with little stations in the mid
> US, and no California at all, then around 1 hour later some stations
> entering from the west coast and strong signals from the middle US
> and fading signals from the East Coast (skip zone moving west) and
> then strong stations coming from California and even two Alaska
> stations, and NY stations popping strong on the radio again.
> 
> "Funny, I have 15 years+ as a ham and I have never seen propagation
> this way. It may be because I have no way to see the other station's
> position before, and now with this software I can note curious
> effects like this.
> 
> "The result of the almost 4 hours sit down in front of the radio was
> 200+ contacts scattered all over the US, including Alaska, and 3 PY
> (Brazil) and one FM4 (Martinique) on SSB.
> 
> "Just to share an experience, and surprise of the discovery. We
> never stop learning!
> 
> "Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
> 
> "73 de CO7WT, Pavel"
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service web page at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 19 through 25 were 138, 137, 131, 111,
> 108, 96, and 81, with a mean of 114.6. 10.7 cm flux was 153.4,
> 149.2, 144.2, 137.9, 136.1, 128.3, and 122.7, with a mean of 138.8.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 4, 3, 3, 2, and 7, with a
> mean of 4.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 6, 4, 2, 2, 2,
> and 6, with a mean of 3.7.
> NNNN
> /EX