[SFDXA] ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill Marx]

> 
> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032
> ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP32
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32  ARLP032
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  August 9, 2013
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP032
> ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Solar indicators barely moved this week, with average daily sunspot
> numbers up 5.8 points to 85.4, and average daily solar flux down 2.4
> points to 107.3.
> 
> Predicted solar flux for the next week is low, with the predicted
> average for Thursday, August 8 through Wednesday, August 14 at 104.9,
> a little lower than the 107.3 average for this past week.
> 
> Solar flux is predicted at 105 on August 9-16, 110 on August 17-18,
> 105 on August 19-24, 110 on August 25-28, 115 on August 29, 105 on
> August 30 through September 2, 110 on September 3-4, and 115 on
> September 5-12.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 10, 22, 25, 12 and 5 on August 9-13,
> 12 on August 14-15, 5 on August 16-20, then 10, 15 and 10 on August
> 21-23, 5 on August 24-30, then 12, 17, 8, 5 and 8 on August 31
> through September 4, 5 on September 5-9, and 8 on September 10-11.
> 
> OK1HH predicts the geomagnetic field will be quiet to unsettled
> August 9, quiet to active August 10-11, mostly quiet August 12,
> quiet on August 13, active to disturbed August 14, mostly quiet
> August 15-17, quiet to unsettled August 18, mostly quiet August 19,
> quiet August 20, quiet to unsettled August 21, active to disturbed
> August 22, quiet to unsettled August 23, quiet to active August 24,
> quiet August 25-30, and active to disturbed August 31.
> 
> In recent bulletin ARLP024 we noted that the site for downloading
> W6ELprop had a bad link, and then referenced an ftp site.  Now that
> ftp site requires a login, so the best place to find W6ELprop is via
> K9LA.  Go to http://www.k9la.us and click on Tutorials and note the
> W6ELPropInst270 link.
> 
> Many emails arrived this week concerning the sun's 180-degree flip
> in magnetic polarity, upcoming at the solar cycle peak.  Check out 
> http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/05aug_fieldflip/, and
> http://earthsky.org/science-wire/the-suns-magnetic-field-is-about-to-flip.
> 
> Thanks to K9TF, K6HI, K3MJ, WB0OEW and M0VNG among others for the
> heads-up.
> 
> Here is an interesting comment about the 100-year-sunspot-minima
> theory:
> http://informthepundits.wordpress.com/2013/08/02/sunspot-cycle-in-100-year-dip/.
> 
> And check this amazing photo of a sunspot:
> http://io9.com/behold-the-clearest-photo-of-a-sunspot-ever-taken-1054493465.
> 
> Roland Anders, K3RA told us recently about some experiences with
> unexpected propagation on 15 meters.  On August 6, he sent this:
> 
> "The antenna is a 3 element SteppIR at 50 feet (DB18 with two
> 'trombones' for 40/30.  As for Lawyers Hill, it is not all that high
> above sea level (about 200 feet) but I have a pretty sharp drop off
> NE to South.  The terrain is not all that high here, about 200 feet,
> and the land rises steadily to the NNW and around to SW.  But to the
> NE to South it drops off very steadily from my antenna for miles,.
> So it is a relatively good location."
> 
> "Friday August 2 I worked about 25 Oceana and Asian stations with
> some Europeans intermixed from 1318 UTC to 1703 UTC.  Asia/Oceana
> included YB, JA, DU, HL, VK8, 9M6, and HS.  (All on 15 meters)."
> 
> "On Saturday August 3 I worked about 25 Pacific/Asia stations (YB,
> JA, XV, DU, UA9, VK8) from 1210 UTC til 1350 UTC on 15 meters.  I
> moved to 17 meters at 1430 UTC which was wide open to Europe, and
> also worked a couple JA's there at 1500 UTC.  At about 1600 UTC I
> heard a weak SM station in QSO with another European station on 12
> meters.  I called CQ and worked about 40 European stations until I
> quit at 1815 UTC.  I don't know how much longer 12 meters was open
> from East Coast USA to Europe.  During that time I worked stations
> from F to 4X, and as far north as SM and south to CU3."
> 
> "On Sunday August 4, I worked a YB on 15 meters at 1220 UTC, then
> moved to 12 meters and worked a half dozen European stations on 12
> meters from 1230 UTC until 1300 UTC.  I was unable to stay on much
> longer, so I don't know how conditions panned out the rest of the
> day on 12 meters."
> 
> "On Monday, August 5 conditions to Asia on 15 meters did not repeat.
> European stations were present, but not strong."
> 
> "I could not listen until noon today (August 6), but nothing coming
> through from YB and Europe not strong on 15 meters."
> 
> Thanks Rol.
> 
> For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
> Technical Information Service at
> http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the
> numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past
> propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
> overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
> 
> Sunspot numbers for August 1 through 7 were 88, 112, 104, 75, 59,
> 61, and 99, with a mean of 85.4. 10.7 cm flux was 112.1, 112.9,
> 107.3, 104.8, 104.3, 103.9, and 105.5, with a mean of 107.3.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 16, 16, 7, and 4, with a
> mean of 8.1.  Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 3, 6, 11, 11,
> 6, and 6, with a mean of 6.7.
> NNNN
> /EX
>