[SFDXA] ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP48
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47  ARLP047
 From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 26, 2012
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

This bulletin was delayed several days due to the Thanksgiving holiday, 
but is up-to-date as of Monday morning.

In Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP046 on November 16, the average 
daily sunspot number on November 8-14 was 104.9. In the next seven day 
reporting period, November 15-21, the average was 126.9, a nice 
increase. With solar flux, the average over the previous period was 
129.5. In the most recent period it increased to 138.9.

In the four days (November 22-25) since the last reporting period ended, 
sunspot numbers were weakening at 93, 85, 87 and 64. Solar flux was 
127,7, 126.7, 118 and 121.6.

The latest prediction from NOAA/USAF on Sunday, November 25, has solar 
flux at 120 on November 26, 115 on November 27, 110 on November 28, 105 
on November 29-30, 100 on December 1-3, 120 on December 4, 125 on 
December 5-6, 130 on December 7-11, 135 on December 12-15, and peaking 
at 140 on December 16-17. It then drops to a minimum of 110 on December 
26-28 before rising again.

The planetary A index is predicted at 11 and 15 on November 26-27, 8 on 
November 28-29, 10 on November 30, 8 on December 1, 5 on December 2-4, 
10 on December 5-8, 5 and 8 on December 9-10, 5 on December 11-15, 8 on 
December 16, and 5 on December 17-31.

OK1HH predicts quiet conditions November 26, quiet to unsettled November 
27, active to disturbed November 28, mostly quiet November 29 through 
December 2, quiet to unsettled December 3, quiet to active December 4, 
quiet December 5-8, quiet to unsettled December 9, and quiet to active 
December 10-11.

On November 19, Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas reported 6 and 10 
meter sporadic-E propagation.  He wrote, "I heard the W4CHA/b EL88 
50.079 MHz on Es around 1740 UTC. No live ops around. About 10 minutes 
earlier I worked PT0S while fixed mobile on 10M SSB. I was running 100W 
and a mag mount whip antenna on the car. PT0S peaked up to 10 over S-9. 
I was on a high ridge with a clear shot to PT0S across the Wakarusa 
river valley, which helped."

PT0S was the expedition to St. Peter and Paul Rocks, which sits in the 
mid-Atlantic Ocean at 0.9169 degrees north, 29.335 degrees west. We 
received another interesting report forwarded by Frank Donovan, W3LPL of 
Glenwood, Maryland. The report comes from last Thursday, November 22, 
and was written by George Wallner, AA7JV, who was on the expedition.

Excerpts follow: "During the short openings to JA, the demand is very 
strong and pile-ups have very high densities that make copy difficult. 
Still, we are happy as we have over 2500 JA contacts in
the log.

"There was a very good opening late afternoon on 6 meters. 
Interestingly, just a few minutes before the opening 20, 17 and 15 
meters went almost completely dead. I was operating 20 meter CW and had 
a huge pile-up. Within one minute the pile-up completely disappeared. 
There was not even one weak signal to be heard. Almost instantly, the 6 
meter radio came alive and we had over 200 QSOs in 90 minutes, mostly 
with Southern Europe. A very nice surprise!  20,  17 and 15 meters 
recovered within a few minutes and we had big pile-ups going 15 minutes 
after the beginning of the disturbance.

"We got on 160 just after sunset at 2000Z. We could hear EU stations 
working each other, but nobody could hear us. We QSYed to 80 meters, 
where conditions were worse; 80 sounded like a bad 160. We then moved to 
40 and worked both CW and SSB for a few hours, returning to 160 at 
2145Z, by which time 160 was in decent shape and we were able to work a 
steady stream of EU stations until about 1230Z, when conditions 
deteriorated. We QSYed the main station between 40 and 160 meters a few  
times, trying to make QSOs while keeping our fingers in the 160 meter 
pie. We finished with 160 at sunrise but could not hear any JAs, just 
the odd NA caller, with mostly weak to very weak signals. We quickly 
QSYed to 40 at 0730Z where we were able to work a steady stream of JAs 
until about 0830Z, when the band suddenly closed to JA. Meanwhile, the 
second station was working NA, EU and JA on 80 meters, under good 
conditions until 0800Z."

The disruptions George spoke of were no doubt triggered by one or more 
of the several coronal mass ejections that our Sun spewed forth last week.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email 
the author at, k7ra at arrl.net <mailto:k7ra at arrl.net>.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL 
Technical Information Service web page at 
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the 
numbers used in this bulletin, see 
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past 
propagation bulletins is at 
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good 
information and tutorials on propagation at 
http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/ <http://myplace.frontier.com/%7Ek9la/>.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas 
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins 
are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for November 15 through 21 were 132, 141, 163, 136, 122, 
119, and 75, with a mean of 126.9. 10.7 cm flux was 141.7, 138.3, 135.5, 
141, 133.9, 141.2, and 140.4, with a mean of 138.9. Estimated planetary 
A indices were 3, 5, 7, 5, 4, 11, and 7, with a mean of 6. Estimated 
mid-latitude A indices were 3, 5, 7, 4, 3, 10 and 7, with a mean of 5.6.
NNNN
/EX